Complete Results @

Follow the left-panel link from '25th Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘Storm #3’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station.


In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells:  yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.


Blue (Red) cells indicate the 1st (4th) quartile


SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error


Final Standings - all Forecasters



Station by Station Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Storm-total Snowfall (STP)



Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with No Error)


Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)


Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)


Skill v. NWS ER WFOs


SKILL: positive (negative) skill value indicates a forecast/s improvement (downgrade) over the NWS forecast.

BIAS: arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall (averageForecast) – averageObserved).


Consensus Forecasts … Extremes … and Observed Snowfall


Consensus forecast best @ PWM … BDL …ALB

NWS forecast best @ CAR … CON

MAX forecast best @ BTV … ORH

MAX forecast less than observed @ BTV …ORH

MIN forecasts best @ CAR

MIN forecasts more than observed @



Total Absolute Error and SUMSQ Error

Strong correlation (R = 0.958) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores



Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots (Top 4 Forecasts)


A Forecast dashed trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R2 value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.



Storm-total Snowfall Verification

Verification of storm-total snowfalls for WED through FRI based on reporting from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins issued by NWS.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) less than 8:1 are not reported for stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

The 'TOT SLR' field is the quantity-weighted average of those forecast stations with at least an 8:1 SLR.

Stations observing >= Trace:  11 (41%)

Stations observing > Trace:  10 (37%)


Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least:

4" - 5 (19%)

8" - 4 (15%)

10" - 2 (7%)


MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 8:1)

BTV - 1.05"

BGR - 0.71"


MAX precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid)

PWM - 2.35"

ABE - 2.13"

EWR - 2.03"



New daily snowfall record(s)


BTV - 10" (2.7"; 2004)

BGR - 9" (6"; 2007)

PWM - 7.1" (6.4"; 1915)



ORANGE cells:  new daily record.
GREY cells:  data source(s) - PNS and / or METARs.
Trace amounts (displayed as 0.05") not included in STP.


Approximate areal distribution of storm-total snowfall courtesy NOHRSC


SFC analysis:  12z ... 04-APR-24 and Storm-total Snowfall by Station


Images courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC




Teleconnection time-series data courtesy CPC


Upper Air








Upper air charts courtesy University of WY


SFC analysis 


Images courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC










Satellite imagery courtesy George C. Marshall Space Flight Center Earth Science Branch












Radar imagery courtesy College of DuPage NEXLAB