Contest
Rules

Enter
Snow Storm
Forecast

Enter
Season-total
Forecast

Winter '23 / '24
25th Annual
Snow Storm Contest


Verified Forecasts

Storm #1
Storm #2
Storm #3
Storm #4
Storm #5
Storm #6
Storm #7
Storm #8

Storm Summaries

Storm #1
Storm #2
Storm #3
Storm #4
Storm #5
Storm #6
Storm #7
Storm #8


Winter '23 / '24
23rd Annual 

Season-total Contest
Forecasts


Forecaster 
Storm Statistics

25th Annual
NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest
Winter '23 / '24

The l-o-n-g-e-s-t continuously held
snowfall forecasting contest
on the World Wide Web.


Announcements ... Updates ... and Ramblings
NEWxSFC/s Weblog

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Snow Storm #3:  Synoptiscope in VCP32
Enter forecasts here
Deadline for entries:  10 PM EST xxx ... xx-FEB-24
Verification period BEGINS:  12:01 AM EST xxx ... xx-FEB-24
Verification period ENDS:  11:59 PM EST the day snow stops accumulating
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Snow Storm #2
Forecasts here
STP verification here
Forecast
verification here
FINAL Results / Storm Summary here
Select charts and graphs at the blog
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
23rd Annual
'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Forecasts here
Verification period:  01-DEC-23 thru 31-MAR-24
Summary and charts at the blog
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEWxSFC greatly appreciates the generous ... long-term support provided graciously
by Senior Forecaster Emeritus Donald Rosenfeld who began his sponsorship
of our web site in 2003 and managed the development of our online entry forms.


Day One >= 4"  QPFHSD


Day Two >= 4"


Day Three >= 4"



Today/s Snow cover


Winter '23 / '24
'Snow Storm' Contest

Storm

1st

2nd

3rd

HM

06-JAN-24  Herb
@ MAWS
 donsutherland1  bruced39  NWS ER WFOs
13-FEB-24 bubbler86 Shillelagh StormOfCorn donsutherland1
# 3
# 4
# 5
# 6
# 7
# 8
# 9
#10

Winter '22 / '23 Results

24th Annual
'Snow Storm
' Contests
FINAL Standings here

1st2nd3rdHM
Don SutherlandWeatherTJessica CainTQ

22nd Annual
'Season-total' Contest
Forecaster Verifications & Final Results

1st2nd3rdHM
snowmanJessica CainHerb@MAWSMitchel Volk

Past Contest Winners


Arctic Oscillation


North Atlantic Oscillation


NCDC Period-of-Record
Snowfall Climatology


References



Updated:  15-FEB-24 @ 7 PM EST


Forecast Station List by State

(linked to verifying CF6)

ME

NH

VT

MA

RI

CT

NY

PA

NJ

MD

VA

NC

CAR
Caribou

CON
Concord

BTV
Burlington

BOS
Boston

PVD
Providence

BDR
Bridgeport

ALB
Albany

ABE
Allentown

ACY
Atlantic City

BWI
Baltimore

IAD
Dulles

RDU
Raleigh

BGR
Bangor

    HYA
Hyannis
  BDL
Hartford
BGM
Binghamton
MDT
Harrisburg
EWR
Newark
DCA
Washington
ORF
Norfolk
 

PWM
Portland

    ORH
Worcester
   

ISP
Islip

PHL
Philly

 

SBY
Salisbury

RIC
Richmond

 
           

JFK
Kennedy

         
Snowfall Forecast Contest Rules


Forecast
Stations


There are 27 permanent forecast stations for each snow storm.

Forecast station locations range from Raleigh ... NC (RDU) to Caribou ... ME (CAR)
and Binghamton ... NY (BGM) to Hyannis ... MA (HYA).

Here/s a map showing their approximate locations (courtesy Steve Okonski).

The 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast contest station list has 25 stations
and is slightly different than the 'Snow Storm' station list (HYA ... ISP ...
and JFK excluded; NYC included).



Who
Can
Enter
?


The Contest is open to all including amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters
with or without trained Seals; any and all weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees;
wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized classes of
dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent
megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents ... pest detectives ...
ne.weather USENET veterans and lurkers ... riders on the StormVista ... refugees from
AmericanWx ... USWeather survivors ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx
... and of course ... meteorologists.

In honor of Mr. Joseph Bartlo/s final request (RIP):
trolls ... goats ... hat3-lsiters ... and psests need not apply.


Entries


Enter your 'snow storm' snowfall forecasts here.
Enter your 'season-total' snowfall forecasts here.

If you/re a first-time forecaster ...
you can create an account if you come up with a user name and password.

Your NEWxSFC account is password protected.
Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies.

After you submit your forecast ... a copy of it will be e-mailed to you
unless COMCAST or your ISP flags it as SPAM (looking at you COMCAST).

All raw 'storm' forecasts will be posted automatically to the NEWxSFC web log
~30 minutes after the 10 PM LT entry deadline has passed.

'Call for Forecasts' are made on the NEWxSFC web log
by the Contest Administrator ~24 hours in advance of the deadline.

In most cases ... the deadline will be 10 PM LT.

The Contest Administrator reserves the right to reject any forecast
if it could compromise the validity or integrity of the contest.


Forecast
Snowfall
Amounts


MIN value: 0"
MAX value: 99"
MAX decimal places: 2

If 'trace' snowfall is expected at a forecast station ... please enter 0.05".


Verification

Forecasts are verified against each station/s storm-total snowfall (STP)
... as reported by NWS Preliminary Local Climatological Bulletins (CF6).

In the event a CF6 is not available or appears to contain errors ... the
following sources ... listed in order of preference ... will be used:
CDUS41 ... PNS ... or METAR.

STP reports are posted to the NEWxSFC web log prior to forecast verification.
The reports are considered preliminary and subject to change / challenge for
~24 hours ... should updated information become available.



Scoring


Each snowfall contest must have at least seven entries to be a valid.

The scoring system for the 'snow storm' season is designed to determine objectively
which forecast had the best overall synoptic quality.  An accurate ... high-quality ...
synoptic-scale snowfall forecast is defined as one capturing the magnitude
and distribution of the storm/s total snowfall.

Forecast quality is evaluated by calculating its 'goodness of fit' between all forecast
and observed snowfall amounts.

The scatter plot/s black diamonds show the forecast snowfall (x-axis) plotted
against the observed snowfall (y-axis).  The dashed line represents the
forecast/s 'goodness of fit.' The magenta points represent a perfect forecast ...
where each station forecast matched each station observation.

The 0.82 RČ value indicates the forecaster accounted for 82% of the variability
in the observed snowfall amounts. A 'perfect' forecast would have an RČ value of 1 ...
meaning 100% of the observed snowfall/s variability was accounted for (explained)
by the forecast.


The forecast error statistic is the Sum of Squared Errors (SUMSQ).

The arithmetic difference between the Forecast and Observed snowfall at each
station is squared and the squared errors for all stations are summed. This measure
of skill rewards (penalizes) station forecasts with small (large) errors.

The smaller the SUMSQ ... the better the synoptic-scale forecast.

If the absolute difference between your
Forecast snowfall and the Observed snowfall is:
one (1) inch = one (1) error point
two (2) inches = four (4) error points
three (3) inches = nine (9) error points


Each forecaster/s SUMSQ Error score is normalized to a Z-Score for use in
calculating Interim and End-of-Season standings.

Forecasts with normalized Z-scores greater than or equal to 2.5 standard
deviations above the mean are statistical outliers and may be excluded from the final
Z-Score calculation.


If Snow is Observed and Snow is Not Forecast...
   then the Forecaster/s Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station.

If Snow is Forecast and Snow is Not Observed...
   then the Observed Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station.

If Snow is not Forecast and Snow is Not Observed...
   then the Forecaster is not scored for that station.


Other reported forecast statistics ... such as average absolute error (AAE) ...
total absolute error (TAE) ... total snowfall error (STP) ... RČ (coefficient of determination)
... skill scores ... and 'batting averages' are 'measures of forecaster skill' but do not factor
into forecast rankings.
Season-total
Contest Scoring

The error statistic for the 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest is the
sum-total of absolute errors.

A forecast with the lowest 'sum-total of absolute errors' is the best forcast.

Results


Full forecast verification and summary results are posted on the Contest web page.

Abbreviated results are posted to NEWxSFC/s web log


End-of-the-Season
Final Standings


The Contest winner is determined by which Forecaster has the lowest average
Sum of Square Error (SUMSQ) Z-Score at the end of the season.

Forecasters must participate in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm Contests
to be eligible for ranking in the Interim and Final Standings.

Forecasters ... who have participated in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm
Contests ... will have Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts used to
calculate the Interim and Final standings. The intent of this rule is to encourage
forecasters to 'take on' difficult and/or late-season storms without fear of
jeopardizing their score b/c of a 'bad' forecast.



Prizes


The three  top-ranked 'Season-total snowfall' Forecasters receive their
choice of prizes TBD.


Disputes


The contests are intended to be easy and fun to play.
Disputes are not easy nor are they fun.

Errors can and do happen.
Please report them along with a link to the supporting data to
newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net or in Comments on the web log.

Be sure to un-munge the mailto: address before you press 'Send.'


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Any and all original materials contained on this site are protected by United States
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or broadcast without the expressed prior written permission from NEWxSFC.


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