NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

11th Annual
NE.Wx
Snowfall Forecast Contest
Winter '09 / '10
The longest continuously held snowfall forecast contest
on the World Wide Web.

Interim Standings
(as of Storm #7)
Snow Storm #7
Top Forecast: donsutherland1
Final Results and Storm Summary here
Verified forecasts here

9th Annual
Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest
Deadline for entries has passed.
Forecasts here.
Contest Announcements and Updates on
NEWxSFC/s Web Log

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Enter
Season-total
Forecast

Storm Contest

Forecasts
Contest #1
Contest # 2
Contest # 3
Contest # 4
Contest # 5
Contest # 6
Contest # 7
Contest # 8

Results
Contest #1
Contest # 2
Contest # 3
Contest # 4
Contest # 5
Contest # 6
Contest # 7
Contest # 8

9th Annual
Season-total Contest
Forecasts

NCDC
Period of Record
Climatology

Today/s Snowcover

**'09 / '10 Storm Winners**
Storm #1	donsutherland1
Storm #2	Shillelagh
Storm #3	ilibov
Storm #4	Roger Smith
Storm #5	donsutherland1
Storm #6	ilibov
Storm #7	donsutherland1
Storm #8

'08 / '09 Storm Contest Winner
Don Sutherland

'08 / '09 Season-total Contest Winner
TQ

Past Contest Winners

Last Year/s Results

10th Annual
'Regular Season'
Final Standings
and Results Summary

8th Annual
'Season-total'
Final Results Summary
and Forecast Verification

Arctic Oscillation

North Atlantic Oscillation

Pacific North American

NESDIS SN Cover
Analysis

US SN Depth

NHEMI SN Depth

National
SN Analysis

References

Be notified of
page updates

Updated: 02-MAR-10 @ 6:45 PM EST

Forecaster DATA

ME	NH	VT	MA	RI	CT	NY	PA	NJ	MD	VA	NC
CAR Caribou	CON Concord	BTV Burlington	BOS Boston	PVD Providence	BDR Bridgeport	ALB Albany	ABE Allentown	ACY Atlantic City	BWI Baltimore	IAD Dulles	RDU Raleigh
BGR Bangor			HYA Hyannis		BDL Hartford	BGM Binghamton	MDT Harrisburg	EWR Newark	DCA Washington	ORF Norfolk
PWM Portland			ORH Worcester			ISP Islip	PHL Philly		SBY Salisbury	RIC Richmond
						JFK Kennedy AP

**Snowfall Forecast Contest** **Rules**

Forecast Stations	There are 27 permanent stations for each snow storm. Station locations range from Raleigh...NC (RDU) to Caribou...ME (CAR) and Binghamton (BGM) to Hyannis (HYA). Here/s a map showing their locations (courtesy Steve Okonski). The 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast contest station list has 25 stations and is slightly different than the 'Snow Storm' station list.

Who Can Enter ?	Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; all weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other commonly recognized classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras... registered Nostradamusts...non-violent megalomaniacs...woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx NG regulars and lurkers; refugees from EUSWx and/or StormVista...and of course... meteorologists. Trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.

Entries	Enter your 'snow storm' snowfall forecasts here. Enter your 'season-total' snowfall forecasts here. If you/re a first-time forecaster...you can create an account if you can come up with a user name and password. Your account is password protected. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies. After you submit your forecast...a copy of it will be e-mailed to you. All forecasts will be posted automatically to the NE.Wx Google Group within 30 minutes after the entry deadline has passed. Call for forecasts are made on the NEWxSFC web log...NE.Wx Google Group... 'StormVista'...and via e-mail by the Contest Administrator ~24 hours in advance of the deadline. In most cases...the deadline will be 10:30 PM LST. The Contest Administrator reserves the right to reject any forecast that might compromise the integrity of the contest.

Forecast Snowfall Amounts	MIN value: 0" MAX value: 99" MAX decimal places: 2 If a trace snowfall is expected at a station...please enter 0.05".

Verification	Forecasts are verified against each station/s storm-total snowfall (STP)... as reported by NWS Preliminary Local Climatological Bulletins (CF6). In the event a CF6 is not available or appears to contain errors...the following sources...listed in order of preference...will be used: CDUS41... PNS...and METAR. STP reports are posted to the NEWxSFC web log prior to forecast verification. The reports are considered preliminary and subject to change / challenge for 24 hours...if updated information becomes available.

Scoring	The scoring system for the 'regular' season is designed to determine objectively which forecast had the best overall synoptic quality. An accurate...high-quality... synoptic-scale snowfall forecast is defined as one that best captures the magnitude and distribution of the storm/s total snowfall. Forecast quality is evaluated by calculating its 'goodness of fit' between all forecast and observed snowfall amounts. The scatter plot/s black diamonds show the forecast snowfall (x-axis) plotted against the observed snowfall (y-axis). The dashed line represents the forecast/s 'goodness of fit.' The magenta points represent a perfect forecast...where each station forecast matched each station observation. The R² value indicates the forecast accounted for 82% of the variability between forecast and observed snowfall amounts. A 'perfect' forecast would have an R² value of 1...meaning 100% of the observed snowfall/s variability was accounted for by the forecast. The forecast error statistic is the Sum of Squared Errors (SUMSQ). The arithmetic difference between the Forecast and Observed snowfall at each station is squared and the squared errors for all stations are summed. This skill measure rewards (penalizes) station forecasts with small (large) errors. The smaller the SUMSQ...the better the synoptic-scale forecast. If the absolute difference between your Forecast snowfall and the Observed snowfall is: one (1) inch = one (1) error point two (2) inches = four (4) error points three (3) inches = nine (9) error points Each forecaster/s SUMSQ Error score is normalized to a Z-Score for use in calculating Interim and End-of-Season standings. Forecasts with normalized Z-scores greater than or equal to 2.5 standard deviations above the mean are statistical outliers and are excluded from the final Z-Score calculation. If Snow is Observed and Snow is Not Forecast... then the Forecaster/s Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station. If Snow is Forecast and Snow is Not Observed... then the Observed Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station. If Snow is not Forecast and Snow is Not Observed... then the Forecaster is not scored for that station. Other forecast statistics are reported...such as average absolute error (AAE) ...total absolute error (TAE)...total snowfall error (STP)...R²...and 'batting averages'...but these 'measures of skill' do not factor into forecast rankings.
Season-total Contest Scoring	The error statistic for the 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest is the sum-total of absolute errors.
Results	Full forecast verification and summary results are posted on the Contest web page. Abbreviated results are posted to NEWxSFC/s web log...NE.Wx Google Group and 'StormVista.'

End-of-the-Season Final Standings	The Contest winner is determined by which Forecaster has the lowest average Sum of Square Error (SUMSQ) Z-Score at the end of the season. Forecasters must participate in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm Contests to be eligible for ranking in the Final Standings. Forecasters...whom have participated in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm Contests...will have Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts used to calculate the interim and final standings. The intent of this rule is to encourage forecasters to 'take on' difficult and/or late-season storms without fear of jeopardizing their score b/c of a 'bad' forecast.

Prizes	The top-ranked end-of-season 'Snow Storm' Forecaster receives TBD The top-ranked 'Season-total snowfall' Forecaster receives... "The Snow Booklet"...by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson or New England Weather New England Climate...by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim

Disputes	The contests are intended to be easy and fun to play. Disputes are not easy nor fun. Errors can and do happen. Please report them and a link to the supporting data here. Be sure to un-munge the mailto: address before you press 'Send.'
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