Contest Rules

Enter
Snow Storm
Forecast

Enter
Season-total
Forecast


Storm-total Contest


Verified Forecasts

Contest #1
Contest # 2
Contest # 3
Contest # 4
Contest # 5
Contest # 6
Contest # 7
Contest # 8

Storm Summary

Contest #1
Contest # 2
Contest # 3
Contest # 4
Contest # 5
Contest # 6
Contest # 7
Contest # 8


Season-total Contest


Forecasts

15th Annual
NE.Wx
Snowfall Forecast Contest
Winter '13 / '14

The longest continuously held
snowfall forecasting contest
on the World Wide Web.


-------------------------------------------------------------
15th Annual
'Storm-total'
Snowfall Forecast Contest

FINAL Standings here
Top Forecasters
1st - donsutherland
2nd - Brad Yehl
3rd - Herb @MAWS
Honorable Mention: TQ

- Forecaster Storm Summary data here

-------------------------------------------------------------
13th Annual
'Season-total'
Snowfall Forecast Contest


Forecast Verification
and Final Results

Top Forecasters
1st - WXCHEMIST
2nd - Herb@MAWS
3rd - snocat918
Honorable Mention - christophertingus

-------------------------------------------------------------
Contest Announcements and Updates
NEWxSFC/s Web Log

Day One >= 4"
QPFHSD

Day Two >= 4"


Day Three >= 4"



Today/s Snow cover


'13 / '14 'Storm-total' Contest

Storm

1st

2nd

3rd

HM

14-DEC

Herb@MAWS

TQ

donsutherland

kevinmyatt

03-JAN

donsutherland

Herb@MAWS

weatherT

Brad Yehl

21-JAN

Brad Yehl

donsutherland

emoran

Herb@MAWS

05-MAR

donsutherland

Brad Yehl

TQ

Herb@MAWS

12-FEB

weatherT

Brad Yehl

snowman

donsutherland

03-MAR

Donald Rosenfeld

Mitchel Volk

Shillelagh

Brad Yehl

12-MAR

donsutherland

Brad Yehl

Roger Smith

TQ

17-MAR

donsutherland

TQ

Donald Rosenfeld

snocat918


Winter '12 / '13 Results

14th Annual 'Storm-total'
FINAL Standings
Top Forecaster
dryslot

12th Annual 'Season-total'
Forecast Verification
and Final Results

Top Forecaster
Donald Rosenfeld


Past Contest Winners


Arctic Oscillation


Northern Annular Modes


NCDC Period-of-Record
Snowfall Climatology


References


Be notified of a
Call for Forecasts
it's private

powered by
ChangeDetection

Updated:  26-APR-14 @ 8 PM EDT


Forecast Station List by State

(linked to verifying CF6)

ME

NH

VT

MA

RI

CT

NY

PA

NJ

MD

VA

NC

CAR
Caribou

CON
Concord

BTV
Burlington

BOS
Boston

PVD
Providence

BDR
Bridgeport

ALB
Albany

ABE
Allentown

ACY
Atlantic City

BWI
Baltimore

IAD
Dulles

RDU
Raleigh

BGR
Bangor

    HYA
Hyannis
  BDL
Hartford
BGM
Binghamton
MDT
Harrisburg
EWR
Newark
DCA
Washington
ORF
Norfolk
 

PWM
Portland

    ORH
Worcester
   

ISP
Islip

PHL
Philly

 

SBY
Salisbury

RIC
Richmond

 
           

JFK
Kennedy AP

         

Snowfall Forecast Contest Rules


Forecast
Stations


There are 27 permanent forecast stations for each snow storm.

Forecast station locations range from Raleigh...NC (RDU) to Caribou...ME (CAR)
and Binghamton (BGM) to Hyannis (HYA).

Here/s a map showing their locations (courtesy Steve Okonski).

The 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast contest station list has 25 stations and is
slightly different than the 'Snow Storm' station list.



Who
Can
Enter
?


Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained
Seals; all other weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...
and any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras...
registered Nostradamusts...non-violent megalomaniacs...woolly-bear caterpillars
or their agents...pest detectives...NE.Wx NG regulars and lurkers; refugees from
AmericanWx and/or USWeather...including self-imposed exiles from Eastern and
of course...actual meteorologists.

In honor of Mr. Joseph Bartlo/s final request (RIP):
trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.


Entries


Enter your 'snow storm' snowfall forecasts here.
Enter your 'season-total' snowfall forecasts here.

If you/re a first-time forecaster...you can create an account if you can come up
with a user name and password.

Your NEWxSFC account is password protected.
Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies.

After you submit your forecast...a copy of it will be e-mailed to you
unless COMCAST flags it as SPAM.

All raw 'storm' forecasts will be posted automatically to the NEWxSFC web log
~30 minutes after the entry deadline has passed.

The 'Call for forecasts' are made on the NEWxSFC web log
by the Contest Administrator ~24 hours in advance of the deadline.

In most cases...the deadline will be 10:30 PM LST.

The Contest Administrator reserves the right to reject any forecast if it could
compromise the validity or integrity of the contest.


Forecast
Snowfall
Amounts


MIN value: 0"
MAX value: 99"
MAX decimal places: 2

If 'trace' snowfall is expected at a forecast station...please enter 0.05".


Verification

Forecasts are verified against each station/s storm-total snowfall (STP)
...as reported by NWS Preliminary Local Climatological Bulletins (CF6).

In the event a CF6 is not available or appears to contain errors...the
following sources...listed in order of preference...will be used:
CDUS41...PNS...or METAR.

STP reports are posted to the NEWxSFC web log prior to forecast verification.
The reports are considered preliminary and subject to change / challenge for
24 hours...if updated information becomes available.



Scoring


The scoring system for the 'regular' season is designed to determine objectively
which forecast had the best overall synoptic quality.  An accurate...high-quality...
synoptic-scale snowfall forecast is defined as one capturing the magnitude
and distribution of the storm/s total snowfall.

Forecast quality is evaluated by calculating its 'goodness of fit' between all forecast
and observed snowfall amounts.

The scatter plot/s black diamonds show the forecast snowfall (x-axis) plotted
against the observed snowfall (y-axis).  The dashed line represents the
forecast/s 'goodness of fit.' The magenta points represent a perfect
forecast...where each station forecast matched each station observation.

The 0.82 R² value indicates the forecaster accounted for 82% of the variability
between forecast and observed snowfall amounts. A 'perfect' forecast would
have an R² value of 1...meaning 100% of the observed snowfall/s variability
was accounted for by the forecast.


The forecast error statistic is the Sum of Squared Errors (SUMSQ).

The arithmetic difference between the Forecast and Observed snowfall at each
station is squared and the squared errors for all stations are summed. This skill
measure rewards (penalizes) station forecasts with small (large) errors.

The smaller the SUMSQ...the better the synoptic-scale forecast.

If the absolute difference between your
Forecast snowfall and the Observed snowfall is:
one (1) inch = one (1) error point
two (2) inches = four (4) error points
three (3) inches = nine (9) error points


Each forecaster/s SUMSQ Error score is normalized to a Z-Score for use in
calculating Interim and End-of-Season standings.

Forecasts with normalized Z-scores greater than or equal to 2.5 standard
deviations above the mean are statistical outliers and may be excluded from the final
Z-Score calculation.


If Snow is Observed and Snow is Not Forecast...
   then the Forecaster/s Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station.

If Snow is Forecast and Snow is Not Observed...
   then the Observed Snowfall Amount is set to '0' for that station.

If Snow is not Forecast and Snow is Not Observed...
   then the Forecaster is not scored for that station.


Other reported forecast statistics...such as average absolute error (AAE)
...total absolute error (TAE)...total snowfall error (STP)...R²...and
'batting averages'...are 'measures of forecaster skill' but do not factor
into forecast rankings.
Season-total
Contest Scoring

The error statistic for the 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest is the
sum-total of absolute errors.

A forecast with the lowest 'sum-total of absolute errors' is the best forcast.

Results


Full forecast verification and summary results are posted on the Contest
web page.

Abbreviated results are posted to NEWxSFC/s web log


End-of-the-Season
Final Standings


The Contest winner is determined by which Forecaster has the lowest average
Sum of Square Error (SUMSQ) Z-Score at the end of the season.

Forecasters must participate in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm Contests
to be eligible for ranking in the Final Standings.

Forecasters...whom have participated in at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Storm
Contests...will have Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts used to
calculate the interim and final standings. The intent of this rule is to encourage
forecasters to 'take on' difficult and/or late-season storms without fear of
jeopardizing their score b/c of a 'bad' forecast.



Prizes


The top-ranked end-of-season 'Snow Storm' Forecaster and
the top-ranked 'Season-total snowfall' Forecaster receives their choice of prizes.


Disputes


The contests are intended to be easy and fun to play.
Disputes are not easy nor fun.

Errors can and do happen.  Please report them and a link to the supporting
data here.

Be sure to un-munge the mailto: address before you press 'Send.'


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Any and all original materials contained on this site are protected by United States copyright
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without the expressed prior written permission from NEWxSFC.


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