Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-panel link from '25th Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘Storm #2’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station.
In the table ...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
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Station by Station Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Storm-total Snowfall (STP)
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Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with No Error)
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Skill v. NWS ER WFOs
SKILL: positive (negative) skill value indicates a forecast/s improvement (decline) over the NWS forecast.
BIAS: arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and
the average Observed snowfall (averageForecast) – averageObserved).
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Consensus Forecasts … Extremes … and Observed Snowfall
Consensus forecast best @ HYA … BDR
NWS forecast best @ DCA … ACY
MAX forecast best @ ABE … MDT
MAX forecast less than observed @ ABE … MDT
MIN forecasts best @ BOS … ALB … BGM … PHL … ACY BWI … DCA
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BOS … PHL
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Total Absolute Error and SUMSQ Error
Strong correlation (R = 0.955) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots (Top 4 Forecasts)
A Forecast dashed trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast
R2 value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.
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Storm-total Snowfall Verification
Verification of storm-total snowfalls for SAT and SUN based
on reporting from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins
issued by NWS.
Excellent coverage and reporting.
HYA
STP derived using inverse distance weighting scheme and METARs.
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Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) less than 8:1 are not reported b/c significant
liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification
period.
The 'TOT SLR' field is a quantity-weighted average.
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Stations observing >= Trace: 19 (70%)
Stations observing > Trace: 14 (52%)
Given stations had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least:
4" - 10 (37%)
6" - 6 (22%)
8" - 1 (4%)
MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 8:1)
ABE - 1.03"
PVD - 0.77"
BDR - 0.70"
MAX precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid)
MDT - 1.30"
ABE - 1.03"
BWI - 0.89"
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New daily snowfall record(s)
13-FEB-24
PVD - 6.2" (5.1"; 2022)
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ORANGE cells: new daily record.
GREY cells: data source(s) - PNS and / or METARs.
Trace amounts (displayed as 0.05") not included in STP.
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Approximate areal distribution of storm-total snowfall courtesy NOHRSC
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SFC analysis: 15z ... 07-JAN-24 and Storm-total Snowfall by Station
Images courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/avnsfc.shtml
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Teleconnections
Teleconnection time-series data courtesy CPC
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Upper Air
Upper air charts courtesy University of WY
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SFC analysis
Images courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/avnsfc.shtml
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Satellite imagery courtesy George C. Marshall Space Flight Center Earth Science Branch
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Radar imagery courtesy College of DuPage NEXLAB