NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-panel link from '23^nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘Storm #5’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station

In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Storm-total Snowfall (STP)

Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with No Error)

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ BGR … BOS … BDL

MAX forecast best @

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ CON …HYA …PVD …BDR … ALB … BGM

MIN forecasts more than observed @ ALB

Strong correlation (R = 0.969) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

A dashed Forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R² value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R² = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.

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Verification of storm-total snowfalls for FRI … 25-FEB-22 from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins. Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA

STP estimated from NOHRSC reports using inverse distance weighting of vicinity reports within 5 miles of the station.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_distance_weighting

Trace amounts for SAT derived from METARs.

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