Complete Results @

Follow the left-panel link from '23nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘Storm #5’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station


In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells:  yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.


Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.


SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error


Final Standings - all Forecasters


Station by Station Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Storm-total Snowfall (STP)


Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with No Error)


Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)


Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)


Consensus forecast best @ BGR … BOS … BDL

MAX forecast best @

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ CON …HYA …PVD …BDR … ALB … BGM

MIN forecasts more than observed @ ALB


Strong correlation (R = 0.969) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores


A dashed Forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R2 value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.



Verification of storm-total snowfalls for FRI … 25-FEB-22 from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.  Excellent coverage and reporting.



STP estimated from NOHRSC reports using inverse distance weighting of vicinity reports within 5 miles of the station.


Trace amounts for SAT derived from METARs.




Stations observing >= Trace:  18 (67%)
Given stations had measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:
4" - 8 (30%)
6" - 6 (22%)
8" - 3 (11%)

Max snow melt-water (minimum SLR 8:1)
ORH - 0.95"
ALB - 0.77"
BOS - 0.70"

Max precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):
PVD - 1.04"
ORH - 0.95"
BDL - 0.91"

New daily record(s):


Orange cells indicate new daily record.
Trace amounts (0.05") are not included in STP.

Approximate storm-total snowfall courtesy NOHRSC


SFC analysis:  12z ... 25-FEB-22 and Storm-total Snowfall by Station

Image courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC


Teleconnection time-series data courtesy CPC


Upper air charts courtesy University of WY



SFC analysis 

Image courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC





Imagery courtesy George C. Marshall Space Flight Center Earth Science Branch




Radar imagery courtesy College of DuPage NEXLAB