NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-panel link from '23^nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘28-JAN-22’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station

In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Storm-total Snowfall (STP)

Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with No Error)

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ ORH … BDR … JFK … EWR … SBY

MAX forecast best @ ISP … ACY

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ CON … HYA … BDL … ABE … BWI

MIN forecasts more than observed @

Strong correlation (R = 0.951) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

A dashed Forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R² value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R² = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.

*******************************

Storm-total snowfalls for FRI … 28-JAN-22 through SUN … 30-JAN-22 from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.

Generally good coverage and reporting. Reporting of daily snowfall and liquid equivalents delayed a day or two account for differences between the posted preliminary STP verifications and the verification data in the table below. ACY/s 10:1 SLR is suspicious given higher SLR/s observed at vicinity stations.

Snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period. Minimum SLR required for reporting is 8:1.

---
Stations observing >= Trace: 27 (100%)
Given stations had measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:

4" - 17 (63%)
8" - 12 (44%)
12" - 7 (26%)
16" - 5 (19%)
20" - 2 (7%)
24: - 1 (4%)

Max snow melt-water (minimum SLR 10:1)
ACY - 1.60"
CAR - 0.92"
BGR - 0.82"

Max precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):
ACY - 1.60"
CAR - 0.92"
BGR - 0.82"

---
New daily record(s)
29-JAN-22
BOS - 23.6" (3.7"; 1957)
ISP - 23.2" (1.5"; 2014)
PVD - 18.8" (6.7"; 1912)
ORF - 14.7" (11.5"; 1973)
ACY - 14" (7.3"; 2014)
PWM - 11" (9"; 1957)
BDR - 9.6" (3.8"; 1973)
JFK - 9.3" (1"; 2014)
EWR - 6.6" (1.1"; 1986)
PHL - 5.8" (5"; 1904)