NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest

Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-panel link from '23^nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘17-JAN-22’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station

In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Storm-total Precipitation (STP)

Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with No Error)

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ PVD … IAD

MAX forecast best @ BGM … DCA

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ CAR … BDL

MIN forecasts more than observed @

Strong correlation (R = 0.960) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

A dashed Forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R² value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R² = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.

*******************************

Storm-total snowfalls for SUN … 16-JAN-22 through TUE … 18-JAN-22 from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA
6- and 7-group precipitation data not carried in METARS.

Snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

---
Stations observing >= Trace: 24 (89%)
Given stations with measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:
4" - 5 (19%)
6" - 3 (11%)
8" - 2 (7%)
10" - 1 (4%)

Max snow melt-water (minimum SLR 10:1)
BGM: 1.18"
BTV: 0.57"

Max precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid)
ORF: 1.97"
EWR: 1.87"
ISP: 1.60"

---
New daily record(s)
16-JAN-22
DCA - 2.6" (2.2"; 1965)

17-JAN-22
BTV - 8.1" (8"; 1909)