Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-panel link from '22nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘18-FEB-21’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station
In the table ...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Station by Station Comparison of Best Forecasts
Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with No Error)
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Consensus forecast best @ PWM … BGM …ISP
MAX forecast best @ CON … HYA
MAX forecast less than observed @ HYA
MIN forecasts best @ BTV … BDL … ALB … BWI … IAD … DCA
MIN forecasts more than observed @ ALB … BWI … IAD … DCA
Strong correlation (R = 0.949) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
A dashed Forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast
R2 value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.
Excellent coverage and reporting.
HYA STP estimated from a vicinity report within 2.5 SM of the station carried by the BOXPNS bulletin.
H2O value derived from METAR precipitation groups 7nnnn (24-hour) ... 6nnnn (6-hour) ... and Pnnnn (1-hour).
SBY STP estimated based on METAR 6-hour precipitation report of '60006' and 10:1 SLR.
CON/s Daily Climate Bulletin on THU reported 0.01" liquid but no snowfall total.
Estimated snowfall of 0.1" by applying 10:1 SLR.
SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.
Stations observing at least 0.1": 23 (85%)
Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least ...
4" - 12 (44%)
6" - 2 (7%)
MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 8:1)
MAX precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):
New daily record(s)
THU ... 18-FEB-21
ABE - 4.4" (3.9"; 2000)
EWR - 4" (3.1"; 2000)
JFK - 4.3" (2.1"; 2000)
ISP - 3.9" (2"; 2014)
Approximate storm-total snowfall courtesy NOHRSC
SFC analysis: 18z ... 18-FEB-21
Image courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC
Teleconnection time-series data courtesy CPC
Upper air charts courtesy University of WY
Surface analysis courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC
Radar imagery courtesy College of DuPage NEXLAB