Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from '22nd Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘07-FEB-21’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station
In the table ...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells: yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the 25% (75%) percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors (measure of forecast accuracy accounting for magnitude and distribution of snowfall)
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Station by Station Comparison of Best Forecasts
Perfect Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with No Error)
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Consensus forecast best @ ORH
MAX forecast best @ JFK
MAX forecast less than observed @ none
MIN forecasts best @ PWM … MDT … ACY … BWI … DCA
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BWI … DCA
Strong correlation (R = 0.982) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
A dashed Forecast trend line above (below) solid red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast
R2 value indicates how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability … i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.
Excellent coverage and reporting.
HYA STP estimated by applying inverse distance weighting interpolation of three timely reports within 3.5 SM of the station carried by the PNS bulletin from BOX.
SBY STP estimated based on one report from the forecast station/s county (Wicomico) carried by AKQ/s PNS bulletin.
Average forecast area snow-to-liquid ratio (SN:H20) weighted by station accumulation.
SN:H20 not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.
Stations observing at least 0.1": 25 (93%)
Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least ...
4" - 7 (28%)
6" - 4 (16%)
MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 8:1)
MAX liquid precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):
New daily record(s)
ISP - 6.4" (4.4"; 1986)
Approximate storm-total snowfall courtesy NOHRSC
Teleconnection time-series data courtesy CPC
Surface analysis courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC
Upper air charts courtesy University of WY
Radar imagery courtesy College of DuPage NEXLAB