Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #7 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ PWM …BOS …HYA …BDR … BDL …ISP

MAX forecast best @ BGR …CON ... ORH …BGM … RIC … RDU

MAX forecast less than observed @ BTV …ORH … ALB … BGM … ORF

MIN forecasts best @ CAR …JFK … ABE … PHL … ACY … EWR

MIN forecasts more than observed @ CAR … EWR

Good correlation (R = 0.920) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

Data points above (below) redline ==> over (under) forecast

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Verification:

Table of preliminary storm-total snowfall by station for TUE through THU from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.

Exceptions: none

SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least:

Trace - 27 (100%)

4" - 14 (52%)

8" - 10 (37%)

12" - 6 (22%)

16" - 3 (11)

20" - 2 (7%)

Melt-water

ORH - 1.6"

PWM - 1.28"

BTV - 1.19"

BGR, BOS - 1.16"

Max precipitation: ORH - 1.6"

New daily records: 13-MAR-18

ORH - 21.8" (14.8"; 1993)

BOS - 14.5" (12.3"; 1993)

PVD - 9.5" (7"; 1993)

SFC analysis: 15z …TUE 13-MAR-18