Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #5 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ CAR … BGR … BTV … BGM … MDT

MAX forecast best @ PWM … BOS … ORH … BDL … ABE … BWI

MAX forecast less than observed @ PWM … ORH … ABE

MIN forecasts best @ HYA …ISP … PHL

MIN forecasts more than observed @ HYA

Good correlation between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

Data points above (below) redline ==> over (under) forecast

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Verification:

Good data from CDUS41 …PNS … and F6 bulletins.

No issues.

HYA

METARs and vicinity reports carried in PNSBOX.

SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

HYA

METARs and vicinity reports carried in PNSBOX.

SLR not available for some stations reporting measureable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing at least:

Trace - 23 (85%)

4" - 8 (35%)

6" - 4 (17%)

8" - 0

Melt-water

ORH - 0.54"

PWM - 0.53"

BOS - 0.52"

New Daily Records:

None