Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #4 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Consensus forecast best @ BOS
MAX forecast best @
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @ ORH … PVD … BDR …BDL … MDT
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGR … MDT
Poor correlation between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
METAR KHYA 080656Z AUTO 33012G19KT 10SM BKN021 OVC085 02/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 RAE03UPB16E19SNB03E16
SLRs not available for many stations with measureable snowfall b/c liquid precipitation also occurred during the verification period.
Stations observing at least:
Trace - 19 (70%)
4" - 7 (37%)
6" - 5 (27%)
8" - 0
BGR - 0.53"
BGM - 0.52"
CAR - 0.52"
New Daily Records: