Complete Results @

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #4 to see the complete station forecast verification table.


In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.


Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.


SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error


Final Standings - all Forecasters


Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters


Perfect Forecasts


Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)


Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)


Consensus forecast best @ BOS

MAX forecast best @

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ ORH … PVD … BDR …BDL … MDT

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGR … MDT


Poor correlation between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores





Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.

No issues.



METAR KHYA 080656Z AUTO 33012G19KT 10SM BKN021 OVC085 02/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 RAE03UPB16E19SNB03E16


SLRs not available for many stations with measureable snowfall b/c liquid precipitation also occurred during the verification period.



Stations observing at least:

Trace - 19 (70%)

4" - 7 (37%)

6" - 5 (27%)

8" - 0



BGR - 0.53"

BGM - 0.52"

CAR - 0.52"


New Daily Records: