Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #3 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

 

Perfect Forecasts

 

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

 

Consensus forecast best @ BGR … EWR … IAD … DCA … RIC

MAX forecast best @ ORF … RDU

MAX forecast less than observed @ RDU

MIN forecasts best @ CAR … CON … BTV … BOS … BDR … BDL … ISP … JFK …MDT … PHL

MIN forecasts more than observed @ CON

 

Good correlation between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

 

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Verification:

Good data from CLI and F6 bulletins.

 

Exceptions

HYA

Estimated storm-total snowfall based on inverse distance weighting technique using vicinity STP reports from Barnstable County carried in PNSBOX.

 

BOS

All frozen precipitation.  Low SLR due likely to 2M temperatures > 0°C.

 

CON

CON/s STP based on a 10:1 SLR is clearly unsupported by other data; however ... there have been more than a few instances over time where STPs for other stations indicate obviously bogus 10:1 SLRs but that/s been their report and we/ve use it.

 

 

Stations observing at least:

 Trace - 27

 4" - 4 (19%)

 6" - 1 (4%)

 8" - 0

 

 Max melt-water at RDU (0.49")

 PWM - 0.41"

 BGR - 0.37"

 

New Daily Records:

RDU - 5.9" (4"; 1946)

ORF - 2.5" (1.8"; 1911)

 

 

Image doesn’t capture late verification period snows over RDU across to ORF.

 

Teleconnections

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2018011712.Wa.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2018011712.850a.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2018011712.700a.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2018011712.500a.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2018011712.300a.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2018011712.100a.nh.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2018011712.10a.nh.gif

 

Limited imagery b/c MSFC switched to GOES16 sometime after the 04-JAN-17 snow storm and subsequently clobbered every ‘make your own view’ link on file.