Complete Results @

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #3 to see the complete station forecast verification table.


In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.


Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.


SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error


Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters


Perfect Forecasts


Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)


Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)


Consensus forecast best @ BGR … EWR … IAD … DCA … RIC

MAX forecast best @ ORF … RDU

MAX forecast less than observed @ RDU

MIN forecasts best @ CAR … CON … BTV … BOS … BDR … BDL … ISP … JFK …MDT … PHL

MIN forecasts more than observed @ CON


Good correlation between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores





Good data from CLI and F6 bulletins.




Estimated storm-total snowfall based on inverse distance weighting technique using vicinity STP reports from Barnstable County carried in PNSBOX.



All frozen precipitation.  Low SLR due likely to 2M temperatures > 0°C.



CON/s STP based on a 10:1 SLR is clearly unsupported by other data; however ... there have been more than a few instances over time where STPs for other stations indicate obviously bogus 10:1 SLRs but that/s been their report and we/ve use it.



Stations observing at least:

 Trace - 27

 4" - 4 (19%)

 6" - 1 (4%)

 8" - 0


 Max melt-water at RDU (0.49")

 PWM - 0.41"

 BGR - 0.37"


New Daily Records:

RDU - 5.9" (4"; 1946)

ORF - 2.5" (1.8"; 1911)



Image doesn’t capture late verification period snows over RDU across to ORF.







Limited imagery b/c MSFC switched to GOES16 sometime after the 04-JAN-17 snow storm and subsequently clobbered every ‘make your own view’ link on file.