Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Snow Storm Contest Verified Forecasts’ –Storm #2 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the upper (lower) 25% percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ BOS … BDR … BGM …PHL … SBY

MAX forecast best @ ORH … ALB …EWR

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ HYA … ABE … BWI … IAD … DCA … RIC … RDU

MIN forecasts more than observed @ HYA

Strong association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

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Verification:

Good data from CLI and CF6 bulletins.

HYA

Estimated storm-total snowfall based on METARs @ 10:1 SLR.

Suspect SLRs at ORH ... PVD ... and BGM ... a likely consequence of the storm's high-wind conditions. BDR may have applied a 10:1 SLR to back out melt-water given hinky 6- and 7-group METAR data.

Stations observing at least:

Trace - 27 (100% - something for everyone. RDU 0.9" fell during pre-deadline hours)

4" - 18 (67%)

6" - 14 (52%)

8" - 14 (52%)

10" - 10 (37%)

12" - 9 (33%)

14" - 5 (19%)

16" - 4 (15%)

18" - 2 (17%)

20" - 0

Max melt-water at ISP (1.53")

CAR - 1.36"

BDR / ACY - 0.80"

BGR - 0.79"

New Daily Records: 13

BGR - 18.3" (8.5"; 2003)

ISP - 16" (3.8"; 1988)

PVD - 14.1" (5.7"; 1988)

BOS - 13.4" (7.9"; 1994)

ACY - 13.2" (2.5"; 1905)

CAR - 13" (10.5"; 1988)

BDL - 10.2" (8.1"; 1923)

SBY - 8.5" (0.9"; 1952)

EWR - 8.4" (4"; 1988)

BDR - 8" (5.3"; 1988)

JFK - 8" (4.9"; 1988)

ORF - 5.1" (1.2"; 1905)

RIC - 2.4" (1.6"; 1980)

18z … 04-JAN-18

NOHRSC modeled snow depth

Teleconnections