Complete Results @

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ –Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.


In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.


Blue (Red) cells indicate the upper (lower) 25% percentile.


SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error


Final Standings - all Forecasters


Station Comparison of Top Forecasters


Perfect Forecasts


Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)


Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)


Consensus forecast best @ ORH … BDL … BGM

MAX forecast best @ BGR … ALB

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ CAR … BTV

MIN forecasts more than observed @ CAR


Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores




Good data from CDUS41 … PNS … and F6 bulletins.



Storm-total snowfall report based on METARs



Stations observing at least:

Trace - 19

4" - 6

6" - 1

8" - 1

10" - 0


Max melt-water at BGR (0.46")

Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR) for areas with mixed precipitation ... such as BDR and BOS ... are not reported.


New Daily Records:



12z 25-Dec-17


NOHRSC modeled snow depth