Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #3 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ PWM …CON …BTV …JFK …EWR

MAX forecast best @ BGR …BOS …ORH …BDR … ALB

MAX forecast less than observed @ BOS …ORH

MIN forecasts best @ MDT

MIN forecasts more than observed @ none

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

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Verification:

Good data from CDUS41 … PNS … and CF6 bulletins.

New Daily Records:

MON …02-FEB-15

BOS - 16.2" (11.1"; 1974)

BGR - 12.3" (10.7"; 2011)

ALB - 11.9" (5.5"; 1982)

ORF - 11.4" (8.4"; 1974)

BDL - 10.8" (6.5"; 1916)

BDR - 10.3" (3.2"; 1985)

CON - 9.9" (8.4"; 1967)

BGM - 8.8" (6.8"; 1956)

PVD - 7.9" (6.5"; 1984)

IAD - 4.9" (3.5"; 1996)

EWR - 4.2" (3.4"; 1985)

JFK - 4.2" (3.3"; 1985)

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