Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #2 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ CAR … BGR … BOS

MAX forecast best @ PWM … HYA … ORH

MAX forecast less than observed @ ORH

MIN forecasts best @ BDR …BDK … ALB …BGM …ABE …MDT …PHL … ACY … EWR … BWI

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BDR … BDL … ABE ... PHL ... BWI

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

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Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.

Suspect observations

PWM/s 2.37" liquid on the 27th slightly less than a 10:1 SLR.

The 7-group @ 12z/28th is much lower.

Estimated liquid: 0.95”

BTV/s 0.03" liquid on the 27th ==> 120:1 SLR.

PNSBOX carried 27" @HYA; however ... vicinity reports averaged 22".

New Daily Records:

MON … 26-JAN-15

ISP - 7.5" (4.5"; 1987)

TUE … 27-JAN-15

ORH - 31.9" (11"; 2011)

PWM - 22.8" (8.3"; 1963)

BOS - 22.1" (8.8"; 2011)

ISP - 17.3" (9.6"; 2011)

PVD - 16" (6.7"; 2011)

BGR - 14.9" (10.8"; 1963)

CON - 12.8" (6.2"; 1963)

JFK - 5.6" (4.3"; 2011)

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