Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Snow Storm #8 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
44.7 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
donsutherland1 |
Senior |
21 |
36.6 |
-1.121 |
61.7% |
1 |
42.8 |
1.89 |
-1.417 |
88.3% |
1 |
16.0 |
-1.381 |
34.2% |
1 |
0.76 |
-1.511 |
40.3% |
1 |
87.2% |
1.473 |
9.3% |
1 |
donsutherland1 |
|
TQ |
Senior |
23 |
40.5 |
-1.048 |
57.8% |
2 |
50.7 |
6.06 |
-1.006 |
62.7% |
2 |
18.5 |
-0.957 |
23.7% |
2 |
0.81 |
-1.379 |
36.8% |
2 |
85.1% |
1.057 |
6.7% |
2 |
TQ |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
17 |
62.4 |
-0.633 |
34.9% |
3 |
33.8 |
10.89 |
-0.528 |
33.0% |
4 |
22.0 |
-0.384 |
9.5% |
4 |
1.29 |
0.056 |
-1.5% |
4 |
83.6% |
0.775 |
4.9% |
3 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
snocat918 |
Intern |
18 |
64.3 |
-0.596 |
32.8% |
4 |
35.5 |
9.19 |
-0.696 |
43.4% |
3 |
19.7 |
-0.766 |
19.0% |
3 |
1.09 |
-0.532 |
14.2% |
3 |
76.6% |
-0.631 |
-4.0% |
6 |
snocat918 |
|
WeatherT |
Senior |
17 |
95.5 |
-0.006 |
0.3% |
5 |
24.4 |
20.24 |
0.395 |
-24.6% |
5 |
25.7 |
0.239 |
-5.9% |
5 |
1.51 |
0.705 |
-18.8% |
6 |
77.9% |
-0.371 |
-2.4% |
5 |
WeatherT |
|
Herb@MAWS |
Senior |
20 |
116.6 |
0.395 |
-21.8% |
6 |
23.5 |
21.19 |
0.489 |
-30.5% |
6 |
27.4 |
0.513 |
-12.7% |
6 |
1.37 |
0.279 |
-7.4% |
5 |
80.7% |
0.194 |
1.2% |
4 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
17 |
158.0 |
1.180 |
-65.0% |
7 |
14.9 |
29.74 |
1.332 |
-83.1% |
7 |
29.9 |
0.936 |
-23.2% |
7 |
1.76 |
1.432 |
-38.2% |
8 |
71.1% |
-1.710 |
-10.8% |
8 |
Brad Yehl |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
22 |
192.2 |
1.828 |
-100.7% |
8 |
13.9 |
30.75 |
1.431 |
-89.3% |
8 |
35.1 |
1.801 |
-44.6% |
8 |
1.60 |
0.950 |
-25.3% |
7 |
75.8% |
-0.786 |
-5.0% |
7 |
Roger Smith |
|
Forecast Parameters |
155 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
17 |
36.6 |
-1.121 |
-100.7% |
1 |
13.9 |
1.9 |
-1.417 |
-89.3% |
1 |
16.0 |
-1.381 |
-44.6% |
1 |
0.76 |
-1.511 |
-38.2% |
1 |
71.1% |
-1.710 |
-10.8% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
23 |
192.2 |
1.828 |
61.7% |
8 |
50.7 |
30.7 |
1.431 |
88.3% |
8 |
35.1 |
1.801 |
34.2% |
8 |
1.76 |
1.432 |
40.3% |
8 |
87.2% |
1.473 |
9.3% |
8 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
19 |
95.8 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
29.9 |
16.2 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
24.3 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
1.27 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
79.7% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
19 |
79.9 |
-0.301 |
16.6% |
5 |
29.1 |
15.6 |
-0.067 |
4.2% |
5 |
23.9 |
-0.073 |
1.8% |
5 |
1.33 |
0.167 |
-4.5% |
5 |
79.3% |
-0.089 |
-0.6% |
5 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
2 |
52.8 |
1.000 |
55.1% |
2.3 |
12.2 |
10.1 |
1.000 |
62.4% |
2.3 |
6.0 |
1.000 |
24.8% |
2.3 |
0.34 |
1.000 |
26.6% |
2.3 |
5.0% |
1.000 |
6.3% |
2.3 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
17 |
56.9 |
-0.737 |
-32.6% |
3 |
21.3 |
8.4 |
-0.773 |
-43.6% |
3 |
19.4 |
-0.814 |
-15.3% |
3 |
1.02 |
-0.744 |
-20.4% |
3 |
76.4% |
-0.669 |
-4.2% |
3 |
|
|
|
75% |
21 |
127.0 |
0.592 |
40.6% |
6 |
37.3 |
23.3 |
0.699 |
48.2% |
6 |
28.0 |
0.619 |
20.2% |
6 |
1.54 |
0.766 |
19.8% |
6 |
84.0% |
0.845 |
5.3% |
6 |
|
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
snocat918 |
ALB JFK |
0.111 |
|
2 |
Herb@MAWS |
CAR MDT |
0.100 |
|
3 |
Roger Smith |
ORF RDU |
0.091 |
|
4 |
donsutherland1 |
JFK |
0.048 |
|
5 |
TQ |
ORF |
0.043 |
|
6 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
WeatherT |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
snocat918 |
CON BTV ORH ALB BGM JFK
BWI IAD |
8 |
0.444 |
|
2 |
TQ |
CON BTV ORH PHL ACY DCA
ORF |
7 |
0.304 |
|
3 |
donsutherland1 |
CON BTV ORH BGM JFK ACY |
6 |
0.286 |
|
4 |
Herb@MAWS |
CAR CON BTV ORH MDT |
5 |
0.250 |
|
5 |
Brad Yehl |
CON BTV ORH RIC |
4 |
0.235 |
|
5 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CON BTV ORH SBY |
4 |
0.235 |
|
7 |
Roger Smith |
CON ORH ORF RDU |
4 |
0.182 |
|
8 |
WeatherT |
CON BTV ORH |
3 |
0.176 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
TQ |
CAR CON ORH PVD BDR ALB
ISP JFK ABE MDT EWR |
11 |
0.478 |
|
2 |
Roger Smith |
BGR CON BTV BOS HYA ORH
ALB ACY IAD DCA |
10 |
0.455 |
|
3 |
Brad Yehl |
CAR CON ORH ALB PHL BWI |
6 |
0.353 |
|
3 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CAR CON ORH ALB ORF RDU |
6 |
0.353 |
|
5 |
WeatherT |
CAR CON ORH ALB SBY |
5 |
0.294 |
|
6 |
snocat918 |
CAR CON ORH RIC |
4 |
0.222 |
|
7 |
Herb@MAWS |
CON ORH ALB BGM |
4 |
0.200 |
|
8 |
donsutherland1 |
CON ORH ALB |
3 |
0.143 |
Consensus forecast best @
MAX forecast best @ PHL…ACY…BWI…IAD…DCA
MAX forecast less than observed @ BWI…IAD…DCA
MIN forecasts best @ RIC
MIN forecasts more than observed @
Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
H2O |
|
1 |
IAD |
11.1 |
15.6 |
0.71 |
|
2 |
BWI |
8.1 |
17.6 |
0.46 |
|
3 |
DCA |
7.7 |
12.0 |
0.64 |
|
4 |
ACY |
5.9 |
11.3 |
0.52 |
|
5 |
SBY |
5.0 |
12.8 |
0.39 |
|
6 |
PHL |
4.7 |
20.4 |
0.23 |
|
7 |
CAR |
1.0 |
33.3 |
0.03 |
|
8 |
RIC |
0.6 |
|
-
|
|
9 |
MDT |
0.1 |
|
-
|
|
9 |
BGM |
0.1 |
10.0 |
0.01 |
|
11 |
ALB |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
11 |
BTV |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
11 |
CON |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
11 |
JFK |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
11 |
ORF |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
11 |
ORH |
0.05 |
|
- |
|
11 |
RDU |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
|
ABE |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
BDL |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
BDR |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
BGR |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
BOS |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
EWR |
-
|
|
- |
|
|
HYA |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
ISP |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
PVD |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
PWM |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
TOT |
43.6 |
16.3 |
3.0 |
New Daily Records:
IAD - 6.6" (1.6"; 1978)
ACY - 2.2" (1.7"; 1978)
PHL - 4.7" (3.5"; 1892)
IAD - 4.5" (1.9"; 1965)
DCA - 3.9" (1.9"; 1965)
ACY - 3.7" (1.6"; 1965)
00z 17-MAR-14