Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #2 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
57.70 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
13 |
76.0 |
-1.079 |
52.7% |
1 |
51.35 |
6.35 |
-0.603 |
44.7% |
4 |
20.75 |
-1.825 |
37.2% |
1 |
1.60 |
-1.128 |
32.4% |
1 |
80.0% |
1.128 |
28.1% |
1 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Brad Yehl |
Intern |
13 |
109.7 |
-0.651 |
31.8% |
2 |
38.80 |
18.90 |
0.871 |
-64.6% |
9 |
26.50 |
-0.970 |
19.8% |
2 |
2.04 |
-0.474 |
13.6% |
5 |
79.3% |
1.082 |
27.0% |
2 |
Brad Yehl |
|
TQ |
Senior |
15 |
117.3 |
-0.553 |
27.0% |
3 |
49.65 |
8.05 |
-0.403 |
29.9% |
6 |
30.95 |
-0.309 |
6.3% |
4 |
2.06 |
-0.438 |
12.6% |
6 |
69.4% |
0.445 |
11.1% |
5 |
TQ |
|
ilibov |
Senior |
19 |
125.2 |
-0.453 |
22.1% |
4 |
48.50 |
9.20 |
-0.268 |
19.9% |
7 |
33.00 |
-0.004 |
0.1% |
7 |
1.74 |
-0.920 |
26.4% |
2 |
70.0% |
0.486 |
12.1% |
4 |
ilibov |
|
Shillelagh |
Senior |
15 |
125.5 |
-0.449 |
21.9% |
5 |
50.10 |
7.60 |
-0.456 |
33.8% |
5 |
29.40 |
-0.539 |
11.0% |
3 |
1.96 |
-0.590 |
16.9% |
4 |
63.7% |
0.081 |
2.0% |
7 |
Shillelagh |
|
Roger Smith |
Journeyman |
18 |
131.4 |
-0.374 |
18.3% |
6 |
55.55 |
2.15 |
-1.096 |
81.3% |
2 |
31.65 |
-0.205 |
4.2% |
5 |
1.76 |
-0.888 |
25.5% |
3 |
61.2% |
-0.080 |
-2.0% |
8 |
Roger Smith |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
14 |
142.3 |
-0.236 |
11.5% |
7 |
72.75 |
15.05 |
0.419 |
-31.1% |
8 |
36.55 |
0.523 |
-10.7% |
9 |
2.61 |
0.371 |
-10.6% |
8 |
67.5% |
0.325 |
8.1% |
6 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
dryslot |
Intern |
13 |
149.8 |
-0.140 |
6.9% |
8 |
59.00 |
1.30 |
-1.196 |
88.7% |
1 |
35.30 |
0.338 |
-6.9% |
8 |
2.72 |
0.525 |
-15.1% |
9 |
56.1% |
-0.410 |
-10.2% |
9 |
dryslot |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
13 |
183.5 |
0.289 |
-14.1% |
9 |
29.35 |
28.35 |
1.981 |
-146.9% |
11 |
31.95 |
-0.160 |
3.3% |
6 |
2.46 |
0.145 |
-4.1% |
7 |
73.5% |
0.708 |
17.7% |
3 |
herb@maws |
|
weatherT |
Senior |
13 |
230.5 |
0.886 |
-43.3% |
10 |
33.65 |
24.05 |
1.476 |
-109.5% |
10 |
39.05 |
0.895 |
-18.2% |
10 |
3.00 |
0.951 |
-27.3% |
10 |
38.6% |
-1.531 |
-38.1% |
10 |
weatherT |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
12 |
377.7 |
2.760 |
-134.9% |
11 |
63.00 |
5.30 |
-0.726 |
53.8% |
3 |
48.20 |
2.255 |
-45.9% |
11 |
4.02 |
2.447 |
-70.2% |
11 |
27.7% |
-2.234 |
-55.7% |
11 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
158 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
12 |
76 |
-1.079 |
-134.9% |
1 |
29.35 |
1.30 |
-1.196 |
-146.9% |
1 |
20.7 |
-1.825 |
-45.9% |
1 |
1.60 |
-1.128 |
-70.2% |
1 |
27.7% |
-2.234 |
-55.7% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
19 |
378 |
2.760 |
52.7% |
11 |
72.75 |
28.35 |
1.981 |
88.7% |
11 |
48.2 |
2.255 |
37.2% |
11 |
4.02 |
2.447 |
32.4% |
11 |
80.0% |
1.128 |
28.1% |
11 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
14 |
161 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
50.16 |
11.48 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
33.0 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
2.36 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
62.5% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
13 |
131 |
-0.374 |
18.3% |
6 |
50.10 |
8.05 |
-0.403 |
29.9% |
6 |
31.9 |
-0.160 |
3.3% |
6 |
2.06 |
-0.438 |
12.6% |
6 |
67.5% |
0.325 |
8.1% |
6 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
2 |
79 |
1.000 |
48.9% |
3.2 |
12.14 |
8.51 |
1.000 |
74.2% |
3.2 |
6.7 |
1.000 |
20.4% |
3.2 |
0.68 |
1.000 |
28.7% |
3.2 |
15.6% |
1.000 |
24.9% |
3.2 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
13 |
121 |
-0.503 |
-3.6% |
4 |
43.65 |
5.83 |
-0.664 |
-47.8% |
4 |
30.2 |
-0.424 |
-8.8% |
4 |
1.86 |
-0.739 |
-12.9% |
4 |
58.7% |
-0.245 |
-6.1% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
15 |
167 |
0.074 |
24.6% |
9 |
57.28 |
16.98 |
0.645 |
49.3% |
9 |
35.9 |
0.431 |
8.6% |
9 |
2.66 |
0.448 |
21.2% |
9 |
71.8% |
0.597 |
14.9% |
9 |
|
|
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total
absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
---
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Brad Yehl |
BDR |
0.077 |
|
1 |
donsutherland1 |
ORH |
0.077 |
|
1 |
herb@maws |
HYA |
0.077 |
|
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
dryslot |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
ilibov |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Shillelagh |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
TQ |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
weatherT |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Mitchel Volk |
BTV BGM |
2 |
0.167 |
|
2 |
donsutherland1 |
BGR ORH |
2 |
0.154 |
|
2 |
herb@maws |
BOS HYA |
2 |
0.154 |
|
4 |
Shillelagh |
CON ALB |
2 |
0.133 |
|
5 |
ilibov |
PVD BDL |
2 |
0.105 |
|
6 |
Brad Yehl |
BDR |
1 |
0.077 |
|
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
PWM |
1 |
0.071 |
|
8 |
dryslot |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
8 |
Roger Smith |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
8 |
TQ |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
8 |
weatherT |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Mitchel Volk |
BGR PWM BOS HYA ORH |
5 |
0.417 |
|
2 |
Roger Smith |
BTV ISP JFK EWR |
4 |
0.222 |
|
3 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BGM ABE MDT |
3 |
0.214 |
|
4 |
ilibov |
CON ISP JFK PHL |
4 |
0.211 |
|
5 |
dryslot |
CAR BDR |
2 |
0.154 |
|
6 |
Brad Yehl |
PVD |
1 |
0.077 |
|
6 |
herb@maws |
ALB |
1 |
0.077 |
|
6 |
weatherT |
BDL |
1 |
0.077 |
|
9 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
Shillelagh |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
TQ |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ ORH
MAX forecast best @ BGR…PWM…ALB
MAX forecast less than observed @ PWM
MIN forecasts best @ BOS…HYA…BDR
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BOS
Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
Based on PNSBOX and NOHRSC...no evidence for any accumulation at HYA.
ORH value came from PNSBOX b/c no report was available from climate bulletins.
New Daily Records:
WED...29-FEB-12
BDL - 4.4" (4.4"; 2008)
ALB - 4" (0.8"; 2008)
ORH - 4" (3.1"; 1968)
THU...01-MAR-12
PWM - 13" (9.3"; 2005)