Rookie forecaster Duke kc2dux won the 7th Annual NE.Wx/s Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest. The season was notable for its heavy snowfall over northern portions of the forecast area where 1/3 of the stations exceeded their ‘period of record’ normal (PORN) snowfall. Snowfall at Concord, NH (CON) and Caribou, ME (CAR) between DEC 1 and MAR 31 was almost twice PORN.
Perfect forecasts:
BOS - Toms92GP* and pablopicasso*
ORH - NNEWX70*
NYC - Steve Okonski
ACY - shanabe
Complete station-by-station forecast verification table @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/Season_Totals_0708.html
Thanks to everyone who entered. Hope to see all of you again next winter.
Total Absolute Error is the primary measure of forecaster skill. The absolute error for each forecast station is summed. The Forecaster with the smallest sum-total error made the best forecast.
Error Z is the forecast error/s distance from the average error (479.9”) of all forecasts…expressed as the number of standard deviations above (+) or below (-) the mean.
%MPRV over PORN measures the forecast’s ‘percent improvement over the ‘period of record normal’. Forecasts with positive percentages were more skillful than PORN.
AVG Error is the average station error (Total Absolute Error divided by the number of forecast stations (25)).
Season-total Snowfall is the sum-total
snowfall forecast (STP) for all stations.
% PORN is the forecast/s STP expressed as a percentage of the ‘period
of record’ normal snowfall.
Total Error is the absolute difference between Observed and Forecast snowfall.
AVG Error is the average station error (STP divided by the number of forecast stations (25)).
Blue (red) cells indicate values in the upper (lower) 33% percentile.
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