9^th Annual
NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest
’07 / ‘08 - Final Standings

8 Storms

26 Forecasters

10 Rookies

2 Interns

3 Journeyman

11 Senior

2,072 Station Forecasts

560” Total Snowfall

Top Forecaster: donsutherland1

NEWxSFC - Final Summary					AVG SUMSQ				AVG STP					AVG Total Absolute				AVG Absolute				Mean RSQ
Previous Ranks	Rank	Forecaster	Class	Total STN 4casts	Error (")	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	4cast (")	Error	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	%MPRV over AVG	Rank	RSQ	RSQ Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Forecaster
1,2,1,1,1	1	donsutherland1	Chief	122	61	-1.165	56%	2	74.7	13.0	-0.569	41%	5	25.8	-1.175	31%	2	1.3	-1.222	31%	2	85%	1.273	20%	2	donsutherland1
8,6,4,4,4	2	Raven	Senior	113	90	-0.685	34%	5	73.9	14.8	-0.121	5%	7	31.6	-0.516	16%	5	1.8	-0.228	8%	7	80%	0.763	13%	5	Raven
2,3,3,3,2	3	TQ	Senior	125	87	-0.679	28%	4	70.0	8.8	-0.931	58%	4	28.6	-0.980	21%	3	1.5	-0.760	15%	4	74%	0.233	5%	5	TQ
3,1,2,2,3	4	shanabe	Senior	130	119	-0.646	21%	6	70.3	19.2	-0.070	4%	8	33.5	-0.562	12%	6	1.6	-0.764	16%	5	76%	0.467	4%	6	shanabe
4,4,6,6,5	5	herb @maws	Senior	122	95	-0.486	24%	5	75.2	16.4	-0.193	15%	6	30.9	-0.490	14%	5	1.6	-0.305	9%	6	78%	0.316	6%	5	herb @maws
9,5,5,5,6	6	Donald Rosenfeld	Senior	126	114	-0.036	2%	6	69.2	15.9	-0.273	18%	5	32.7	-0.013	0%	6	1.6	-0.137	6%	6	79%	0.156	5%	6	Donald Rosenfeld
15,-,-,9,8	7	Mitchel Volk	Senior	131	157	0.089	-9%	8	97.5	20.9	0.124	-8%	7	42.7	0.270	-9%	10	2.1	0.267	-10%	10	68%	-0.286	0%	8	Mitchel Volk
7,7,7,7,7	8	jackzig	Senior	123	132	0.203	-4%	8	82.4	22.7	0.353	-16%	9	35.1	0.103	-2%	8	1.8	0.113	-3%	7	71%	-0.209	-4%	7	jackzig

Ten Best Forecasts by Z Score					Sum Square
Storm #	Date	Forecaster	Class	4casts	Error	Error Z	%MPROV over AVG	Rank
4	01-Jan	shanabe	Senior	24	22.2	-1.832	47.4%	1
7	22-Feb	Mitchel Volk	Senior	26	59.5	-1.411	41.3%	1
2	16-Dec	pjc368	Rookie	17	69.1	-1.390	64.8%	1
8	29-Feb	Raven	Senior	20	24.5	-1.343	69.2%	1
6	12-Feb	donsutherland1	Chief	27	40.4	-1.312	60.4%	1
1	02-Dec	donsutherland1	Chief	20	50.8	-1.284	63.2%	1
7	22-Feb	TQ	Senior	27	64.4	-1.244	36.4%	2
3	31-Dec	donsutherland1	Chief	17	51.7	-1.222	43.3%	1
5	14-Jan	Raven	Senior	19	61.4	-1.157	74.6%	1
8	29-Feb	donsutherland1	Chief	20	32.8	-1.141	58.8%	2

Ten Worst Forecasts by Z Score					Sum Square
Storm #	Date	Forecaster	Class	4casts	Error	Error Z	%MPROV over AVG	Rank
5	14-Jan	TrekkerCC	Rookie	21	643.8	2.574	-166.0%	17
2	16-Dec	ilibov	Journeyman	22	413.2	2.380	-110.8%	18
8	29-Feb	ilibov	Journeyman	23	171.6	2.244	-115.6%	10
1	02-Dec	Mitchel Volk	Senior	19	289.6	2.221	-109.4%	15
7	22-Feb	jackzig	Senior	26	165.7	2.170	-63.5%	12
5	14-Jan	pjc368	Rookie	20	578.5	2.156	-139.1%	16
6	12-Feb	ilibov	Journeyman	27	198.4	2.054	-94.5%	10
1	02-Dec	DAROONEY	Senior	17	272.9	1.977	-97.4%	14
3	31-Dec	GSB Snowman	Rookie	20	149.2	1.802	-63.8%	9
4	01-Jan	jackzig	Senior	24	60.3	1.654	-42.8%	7

First Place Finishes by Storm					Sum Square
Storm #	Date	Forecaster	Class	4casts	Error	Error Z	%MPROV over AVG	Rank
1	02-Dec	donsutherland1	Chief	20	50.8	-1.284	63.2%	1
2	16-Dec	pjc368	Rookie	17	69.1	-1.390	64.8%	1
3	31-Dec	donsutherland1	Chief	17	51.7	-1.222	43.3%	1
4	01-Jan	shanabe	Senior	24	22.2	-1.832	47.4%	1
5	14-Jan	Raven	Senior	19	61.4	-1.157	74.6%	1
6	12-Feb	donsutherland1	Chief	27	40.4	-1.312	60.4%	1
7	22-Feb	Mitchel Volk	Senior	26	59.5	-1.411	41.3%	1
8	29-Feb	Raven	Senior	20	24.5	-1.343	69.2%	1

Second Place Finishes by Storm					Sum Square
Storm #	Date	Forecaster	Class	4casts	Error	Error Z	%MPROV over AVG	Rank
1	02-Dec	ilibov	Journeyman	20	78.6	-0.876	43.1%	2
2	16-Dec	donsutherland1	Chief	18	101.0	-1.040	48.4%	2
3	31-Dec	shanabe	Senior	18	56.3	-1.079	38.2%	2
4	01-Jan	Donald Rosenfeld	Senior	24	33.6	-0.787	20.3%	2
5	14-Jan	donsutherland1	Chief	20	87.6	-0.989	63.8%	2
6	12-Feb	Mitchel Volk	Senior	27	56.7	-0.964	44.4%	2
7	22-Feb	TQ	Senior	27	64.4	-1.244	36.4%	2
8	29-Feb	donsutherland1	Chief	20	32.8	-1.141	58.8%	2

Third Place Finishes by Storm					Sum Square
Storm #	Date	Forecaster	Class	4casts	Error	Error Z	%MPROV over AVG	Rank
1	02-Dec	Superstorm	Journeyman	17	80.9	-0.842	41.5%	3
2	16-Dec	TQ	Senior	17	101.1	-1.039	48.4%	3
3	31-Dec	TQ	Senior	13	64.5	-0.824	29.2%	3
4	01-Jan	TQ	Senior	24	43.3	0.095	-2.5%	3
5	14-Jan	Donald Rosenfeld	Senior	19	129.4	-0.721	46.5%	3
6	12-Feb	dmcguriman	Senior	27	58.4	-0.929	42.7%	3
7	22-Feb	Raven	Senior	26	80.2	-0.713	20.8%	3
8	29-Feb	herb@maws	Senior	20	50.3	-0.714	36.8%	3

Forecasters

apisces	bruced39	DAROONEY	dmcguriman	Donald Rosenfeld
donsutherland1	duxpond	emoran	GSB Snowman	herb@maws
ilibov	Inudaw	jackzig	Mitchel Volk	Newa
pjc368	Raven	rickrd	shanabe	smadsen8486
Snowman	Superstorm	TQ	TrekkerCC	WintersGrasp
wxduff

Complete forecast summary data table (HTML) (XLS)

Forecasters qualify for ranking in the FINAL standings if they enter at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Contests.  For example…if you made a total of nine (9) forecasts…your six (6) best forecasts are used to evaluate your performance.  You can think of it as dropping the worse quiz scores before your final grade is determined.  The reasons we have this rule are 1) to encourage forecasters to take on difficult and/or late-season storms without fear about how a bad forecast might degrade their overall 'season-to-date' performance score(s) and 2) to allow you to miss an event or two and still qualify for ranking.

The normalized average SUMSQ Error is the Contest/s primary measure of forecaster performance.  This metric measures how well the forecaster/s expected snowfall 'distribution and magnitude' for all stations captured the 'distribution and magnitude' of all observed snowfall amounts.  A forecaster with lower average SUMSQ Z-scores has made more skillful forecasts than a forecaster with higher average SUMSQ Z-scores.

The 'Storm Total Precipitation' error statistic is the absolute arithmetic difference between a forecaster/s sum total snowfall for all stations and the observed sum total snowfall. This metric…by itself…is not a meaningful measure of skill…but can provide additional insight of a forecaster/s skill.

The 'Total Absolute Error' statistic is the average of your total forecast errors…regardless of whether you over-forecast or under-forecast. This metric measures the magnitude of your absolute errors.

The 'Average Absolute Error' is the forecaster/s Total Absolute Error divided by the number of stations where snow was forecast or observed.

The RSQ error statistic is a measure of the how well the forecast captured the variability of the observed snowfall.