Winter ’13 / ’14 FINAL standings.

There were eight (8) contest-worthy storms this season.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who entered at least six (6) forecasts are included in the FINAL standings.

Forecasters’ storm summary data here

NEWxSFC - Winter '13 / '14: FINAL Standings					AVG SUMSQ				AVG STP					AVG Total Absolute				AVG Absolute				Mean RSQ
Previous Ranks	Rank	Forecaster	Class	Total STN 4casts	Error (")	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	4cast (")	Error	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	%MPRV over AVG	Rank	RSQ	RSQ Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Forecaster
1,1,1,1,1	1	donsutherland1	Chief	138	97	-0.974	57%	2	107	15	-0.518	41%	6	33.3	-1.041	33%	2	1.4	-1.164	35%	2	82%	1.115	22%	2	donsutherland1
3,3,3,3,2	2	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	133	176	-0.762	49%	3	127	24	-0.365	32%	6	44.4	-0.874	32%	2	1.9	-0.776	27%	3	76%	1.147	38%	3	Brad Yehl
2,2,2,2,3	3	Herb@MAWS	Senior	136	189	-0.727	51%	4	128	25	-0.486	43%	6	50.3	-0.681	25%	4	2.2	-0.663	24%	5	70%	0.708	20%	3	Herb@MAWS
5,4,5,5,4	4	TQ	Senior	125	122	-0.693	48%	4	97	18	-0.481	38%	5	36.5	-0.617	23%	5	1.8	-0.696	24%	5	78%	0.680	12%	4	TQ
6,5,4,4,5	5	WeatherT	Senior	134	192	-0.487	36%	5	111	18	-0.507	40%	6	50.0	-0.406	16%	6	2.2	-0.340	14%	6	67%	0.399	21%	6	WeatherT
3,6,6,6,6	6	Shillelagh	Senior	135	285	-0.394	31%	7	118	32	-0.328	28%	6	56.9	-0.467	19%	6	2.4	-0.416	17%	6	64%	0.317	6%	6	Shillelagh
8,7,7,8,8	7	Donald Rosenfeld	Senior	133	285	-0.338	28%	7	111	33	-0.057	-2%	7	59.4	-0.195	10%	8	2.5	-0.112	7%	8	63%	0.280	1%	7	Donald Rosenfeld
7,8,8,7,7	8	Roger Smith	Senior	149	347	-0.038	8%	8	142	21	-0.313	37%	6	63.4	-0.094	6%	7	2.5	-0.273	10%	6	60%	0.074	-1%	8	Roger Smith
12,11,9,11,10	9	snocat918	Intern	136	399	0.235	-18%	9	148	40	0.110	-19%	7	74.3	0.320	-17%	9	3.2	0.374	-16%	10	56%	-0.321	-13%	9	snocat918
11,12,10,10,11	10	MarkHofmann	Senior	140	1196	2.230	-186%	13	205	105	2.024	-193%	12	126.4	2.141	-87%	13	5.5	2.132	-84%	13	34%	-1.570	-47%	13	MarkHofmann

FINAL standings (forecasters who entered all eight Contests)

NEWxSFC - Winter '13 / '14: FINAL Standings				AVG SUMSQ				AVG STP					AVG Total Absolute				AVG Absolute				Mean RSQ
Rank	Forecaster	Class	Total STN 4casts	Error (")	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	4cast (")	Error	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	%MPRV over AVG	Rank	RSQ	RSQ Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Forecaster
1	donsutherland1	Chief	180	151	-0.853	56%	2	110	21	-0.492	39%	6	40.5	-0.919	32%	3	1.8	-1.012	33%	2	76%	0.970	20%	2	donsutherland1
2	Herb@MAWS	Senior	171	178	-0.545	39%	4	108	23	-0.356	33%	6	45.2	-0.504	19%	5	2.1	-0.465	17%	5	72%	0.586	15%	4	Herb@MAWS
3	TQ	Senior	177	236	-0.538	37%	5	104	31	-0.250	18%	7	51.2	-0.427	16%	6	2.2	-0.481	17%	6	68%	0.420	4%	5	TQ
4	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	165	163	-0.494	37%	4	105	25	-0.171	18%	6	41.1	-0.616	26%	3	1.9	-0.481	20%	3	76%	0.770	30%	3	Brad Yehl
5	Donald Rosenfeld	Senior	171	270	-0.200	17%	7	108	28	-0.124	5%	7	56.3	-0.063	4%	8	2.5	0.047	1%	8	63%	0.034	-2%	7	Donald Rosenfeld
6	Roger Smith	Senior	186	392	0.405	-31%	9	124	32	0.190	2%	7	63.7	0.381	-13%	8	2.8	0.141	-7%	7	63%	-0.055	-2%	8	Roger Smith

Top 10 Forecasts: lowest SUMSQ by Z-score

				Sum Square
Storm #	Date	Forecaster	Class	Error	Error Z	%MPROV over AVG	Rank
2	3-Jan-14	donsutherland1	Senior	99.85	-1.269	60.8%	1
3	21-Jan-14	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	140.53	-1.171	54.2%	1
8	17-Mar-14	donsutherland1	Senior	36.64	-1.121	61.7%	1
8	17-Mar-14	TQ	Senior	40.46	-1.048	57.8%	2
2	3-Jan-14	Herb@MAWS	Senior	130.15	-1.021	48.9%	2
3	21-Jan-14	donsutherland1	Senior	164.24	-1.004	46.4%	2
1	14-Dec-13	Herb@MAWS	Senior	67.10	-0.980	76.0%	1
3	21-Jan-14	emoran	Senior	170.86	-0.957	44.3%	3
1	14-Dec-13	TQ	Senior	90.43	-0.873	67.6%	2
7	12-Mar-14	donsutherland1	Senior	103.69	-0.841	53.7%	1

Top 10 Forecasts: lowest Total Absolute Error by Z-score

				Total Absolute
Storm #	Date	Forecaster	Class	Error	Error Z	%MPROV over AVG	Rank
8	17-Mar-14	donsutherland1	Senior	16.0	-1.381	34.2%	1
2	3-Jan-14	donsutherland1	Senior	43.1	-1.292	31.1%	1
3	21-Jan-14	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	48.5	-1.132	30.5%	1
3	21-Jan-14	emoran	Senior	49.0	-1.106	29.8%	2
1	14-Dec-13	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	27.2	-1.053	52.2%	1
4	5-Feb-14	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	28.5	-1.042	35.0%	1
2	3-Jan-14	Herb@MAWS	Senior	47.0	-1.033	24.8%	2
6	3-Mar-14	Donald Rosenfeld	Senior	22.7	-0.998	52.8%	1
4	5-Feb-14	donsutherland1	Senior	29.4	-0.981	33.0%	2
1	14-Dec-13	donsutherland1	Senior	29.4	-0.973	48.3%	2

Top 10 Forecasts: highest RSQ by Z-score

Storm #	Date	Forecaster	Class	RSQ	RSQ Z	%MPROV over AVG	Rank
5	12-Feb-14	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	53.7%	1.850	110.1%	1
3	21-Jan-14	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	74.0%	1.769	45.8%	1
5	12-Feb-14	WeatherT	Senior	50.2%	1.618	96.3%	2
8	17-Mar-14	donsutherland1	Senior	87.2%	1.473	9.3%	1
3	21-Jan-14	donsutherland1	Senior	68.6%	1.356	35.1%	2
1	14-Dec-13	Herb@MAWS	Senior	88.0%	1.279	32.9%	1
7	12-Mar-14	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	88.0%	1.170	21.3%	1
7	12-Mar-14	donsutherland1	Senior	86.8%	1.077	19.6%	2
1	14-Dec-13	TQ	Senior	84.3%	1.061	27.3%	2
8	17-Mar-14	TQ	Senior	85.1%	1.057	6.7%	2

Top 10 Forecasts: lowest STP error by Z-score

				STP
Storm #	Date	Forecaster	Class	(")	Error (")	Error Z	%MPROV over AVG	Rank
3	21-Jan-14	emoran	Senior	114.15	4.3	-1.512	90.0%	1
3	21-Jan-14	WeatherT	Senior	104.90	5.0	-1.486	88.5%	2
8	17-Mar-14	donsutherland1	Senior	42.76	1.9	-1.417	88.3%	1
6	3-Mar-14	Donald Rosenfeld	Senior	49.25	16.6	-1.070	62.2%	1
2	3-Jan-14	snocat918	Intern	170.55	1.1	-1.043	95.6%	1
8	17-Mar-14	TQ	Senior	50.71	6.1	-1.006	62.7%	2
4	5-Feb-14	Herb@MAWS	Senior	114.40	0.7	-0.976	95.3%	1
4	5-Feb-14	Mitchel Volk	Senior	114.60	0.9	-0.962	93.9%	2
3	21-Jan-14	MarkHofmann	Senior	91.01	18.8	-0.946	56.3%	3
2	3-Jan-14	Brad Yehl	Journeyman	175.05	3.5	-0.932	85.4%	2

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To qualify for ranking in the Interim and FINAL ‘End-of-Season’ standings…a forecaster must enter at least two-thirds of all Contests.  If a forecaster has made more than enough forecasts to qualify for ranking…only the lowest SUMSQ Z-scores necessary to qualify are used in the computing the average.  IOW…if you made nine forecasts…only your six best SUMSQ Z-scores are used to evaluate your season-to-date performance.  You can think of it as dropping the worse quiz scores before your final grade is determined.

The reason we have this rule is to 1) make it possible to miss entering a forecast or two throughout the season and still be eligible for Interim and ‘End-of Season’ ranking and 2) encourage forecasters to take on difficult and/or late-season storms without fear about how a bad forecast might degrade their overall 'season-to-date' performance score(s).

The mean normalized ‘SUMSQ error’ is the Contest/s primary measure of forecaster performance.  This metric measures how well the forecaster/s expected snowfall 'distribution and magnitude' for _all_ forecast stations captured the 'distribution and magnitude' of _all_ observed snowfall amounts.  A forecaster with a lower average SUMSQ Z Score has made more skillful forecasts than a forecaster with higher average SUMSQ Z Score.

The 'Storm Total Precipitation error’ statistic is the absolute arithmetic difference between a forecaster/s sum-total snowfall for all stations and the observed sum-total snowfall. This metric…by itself…is not a meaningful measure of skill…but can provide additional insight of forecaster bias.

The 'Total Absolute error' statistic is the average of your forecast errors regardless of whether you over-forecast or under-forecast. This metric measures the magnitude of your errors.

The 'Average Absolute Error' is the forecaster/s ‘Total Absolute Error’ divided by the number of stations where snow was forecast or observed.

The ‘RSQ error’ statistic is a measure of the how well the forecast captured the variability of the observed snowfall. Combined with the SUMSQ error statistic…RSQ provides added information about how strong the forecaster/s ‘model’ performed.