NEWxSFC - FINAL Summary…Winter '11 / '12					AVG SUMSQ				AVG STP					AVG Total Absolute				AVG Absolute				Mean RSQ
Previous Ranks	Rank	Forecaster	Class	Total STN 4casts	Error (")	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	4cast (")	Error	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	%MPRV over AVG	Rank	RSQ	RSQ Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Forecaster
2	1	donsutherland1	Chief	37	58	-0.989	50%	2	50.5	8.9	-0.406	29%	4	20.25	-1.488	34%	2	1.21	-1.181	30%	2	78.5%	1.086	34%	1	donsutherland1
3	2	Brad Yehl	Intern	37	77	-0.702	35%	3	49.1	10.4	-0.267	11%	5	25.07	-0.796	18%	3	1.51	-0.544	14%	4	73.3%	0.830	24%	3	Brad Yehl
1	3	herb@maws	Senior	37	109	-0.362	19%	5	48.2	17.1	0.532	-45%	7	25.77	-0.666	17%	4	1.64	-0.557	12%	4	74.9%	0.860	28%	3	herb@maws
5	4	TQ	Senior	39	94	-0.328	16%	4	48.2	11.3	-0.124	10%	6	28.22	-0.340	8%	4	1.56	-0.378	10%	5	62.1%	0.212	5%	6	TQ
4	5	weatherT	Senior	37	146	0.275	-13%	7	40.8	18.7	0.741	-55%	8	33.27	0.397	-8%	8	2.07	0.475	-14%	8	49.5%	-0.642	-14%	8	weatherT
7	6	Donald Rosenfeld	Senior	39	128	0.388	-21%	7	72.3	12.9	0.051	-6%	6	37.65	0.973	-24%	8	2.08	0.958	-23%	8	49.9%	-0.393	-17%	7	Donald Rosenfeld
8	7	Roger Smith	Journeyman	45	143	0.868	-46%	7	42.9	16.6	0.544	-26%	5	35.90	0.703	-19%	7	1.62	0.208	-2%	5	37.1%	-1.061	-39%	8	Roger Smith
6	8	Mitchel Volk	Senior	36	226	1.370	-67%	9	70.8	11.3	-0.113	12%	5	39.65	1.321	-28%	9	2.66	1.510	-42%	9	44.6%	-0.970	-22%	8	Mitchel Volk

There were two (2) snowstorm forecasting Contests during the ’11 / ’12 season. Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who entered two (2) forecasts were included in the final standings.

To qualify for ranking in the final ‘End-of-Season’ standings…a forecaster must enter at least two-thirds of all Contests.  If a forecaster has made more than enough forecasts to qualify for ranking…only the lowest SUMSQ Z-scores necessary to qualify are used in the computing the average.  IOW…if you made nine forecasts…only your six best SUMSQ Z-scores are used to evaluate your season-to-date performance.  You can think of it as dropping the worse quiz score before your final grade is determined.  The reason we have this rule is to 1) make it possible to miss entering a forecast or two throughout the season and still be eligible for Interim and ‘End-of Season’ ranking and 2) encourage forecasters to take on difficult and/or late-season storms without fear about how a bad forecast might degrade their overall 'season-to-date' performance score(s).

The mean normalized ‘SUMSQ error’ is the Contest/s primary measure of forecaster performance.  This metric measures how well the forecaster/s expected snowfall 'distribution and magnitude' for _all_ forecast stations captured the 'distribution and magnitude' of _all_ observed snowfall amounts.  A forecaster with a lower average SUMSQ Z Score has made more skillful forecasts than a forecaster with higher average SUMSQ Z Score.

The 'Storm Total Precipitation error’ statistic is the absolute arithmetic difference between a forecaster/s sum-total snowfall for all stations and the observed sum-total snowfall. This metric…by itself…is not a meaningful measure of skill…but can provide additional insight of forecaster bias.

The 'Total Absolute error' statistic is the average of your forecast errors regardless of whether you over-forecast or under-forecast. This metric measures the magnitude of your errors.

The 'Average Absolute Error' is the forecaster/s ‘Total Absolute Error’ divided by the number of stations where snow was forecast or observed.

The ‘RSQ error’ statistic is a measure of the how well the forecast captured the variability of the observed snowfall. Combined with the SUMSQ error statistic…RSQ provides added information about how strong the forecaster/s ‘model’ performed.