NEWxSFC - FINAL Summary...01-APR-11					AVG SUMSQ				AVG STP					AVG Total Absolute				AVG Absolute				Mean RSQ
Previous Ranks	Rank	Forecaster	Class	Total STN 4casts	Error ( " )	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	4cast ( " )	Error	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Error (")	Error Z	%MPRV over AVG	Rank	RSQ	RSQ Z	% MPRV over AVG	Rank	Forecaster
1,1,1,1,1	1	donsutherland1	Senior	154	255	-0.910	47%	2	120.1	20.2	-0.451	36%	5	52.1	-1.142	32%	1	2.0	-1.134	31%	1	63.8%	1.092	45%	3	donsutherland1
2,2,2,2,2	2	Donald Rosenfeld	Senior	148	217	-0.834	56%	3	111.1	12.9	-0.574	49%	6	49.8	-0.835	33%	3	1.9	-0.868	32%	3	64.1%	1.009	37%	3	Donald Rosenfeld
6,3,3,3,3	3	Brad Yehl	Rookie	146	234	-0.702	45%	4	101.5	23.9	-0.381	36%	5	48.6	-0.697	25%	5	2.0	-0.697	24%	5	64.6%	0.812	25%	4	Brad Yehl
5,4,4,4,4	4	ejbauers	Intern	147	313	-0.641	43%	5	134.3	33.5	-0.089	12%	7	59.4	-0.620	24%	5	2.3	-0.631	24%	5	66.8%	0.735	31%	3	ejbauers
4,8,5,5,5	5	Mitchel Volk	Senior	148	380	-0.548	26%	5	113.8	34.0	-0.297	20%	6	63.0	-0.520	9%	5	2.5	-0.565	11%	5	50.2%	0.208	15%	6	Mitchel Volk
10,9,8,7,7	6	TQ	Senior	148	290	-0.495	38%	5	85.5	28.7	-0.099	13%	7	51.2	-0.654	26%	5	2.0	-0.673	24%	5	57.3%	0.422	16%	6	TQ
8,7,7,7,6	7	herb@maws	Senior	145	315	-0.417	32%	6	99.5	33.5	-0.061	8%	7	56.3	-0.340	15%	6	2.4	-0.304	12%	7	58.5%	0.348	14%	6	herb@maws
9,10,9,9,9	8	MarkHofmann	Journeyman	157	728	0.794	-34%	10	149.0	22.0	-0.042	-14%	7	96.3	1.018	-27%	10	3.6	1.024	-26%	11	32.1%	-0.743	-31%	10	MarkHofmann
12,12,11,12,10	9	Roger Smith	Intern	159	786	0.833	-32%	11	151.9	54.2	0.484	-41%	10	100.3	0.941	-21%	11	3.8	0.834	-16%	11	27.6%	-1.357	-47%	12	Roger Smith

There were eight (8) snowstorm-forecasting contests during the’10 / ’11 season …as of 01-APR-11. Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who entered at least six (6) forecasts are included in the final standings.

A forecaster must enter at least two-thirds of all Contests to qualify for ranking in the Interim and final ‘End-of-Season’ standings. If a forecaster has made more than enough forecasts to qualify for ranking…only the lowest SUMSQ Z-scores necessary to qualify are used in the computing the average.  IOW…if you made nine forecasts…only your six best SUMSQ Z-scores are used to evaluate your season-to-date performance.  You can think of it as dropping the worst quiz score before your final grade is determined.  The reason we have this rule is to 1) make it possible to miss entering a forecast or two throughout the season and still be eligible for Interim and ‘End-of Season’ ranking and 2) encourage forecasters to take on difficult and/or late-season storms without fear about how a bad forecast might degrade their overall 'season-to-date' performance score(s).

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The mean normalized ‘SUMSQ error’ is the Contest/s primary measure of forecaster performance.  This metric measures how well the forecaster/s expected snowfall 'distribution and magnitude' for _all_ forecast stations captured the 'distribution and magnitude' of _all_ observed snowfall amounts.  A forecaster with a lower average SUMSQ Z Score has made more skillful forecasts than a forecaster with higher average SUMSQ Z Score.

The 'Storm Total Precipitation error’ statistic is the absolute arithmetic difference between a forecaster/s sum-total snowfall for all stations and the observed sum-total snowfall. This metric…by itself…is not a meaningful measure of skill…but can provide additional insight of forecaster bias.

The 'Total Absolute error' statistic is the average of your forecast errors regardless of whether you over-forecast or under-forecast. This metric measures the magnitude of your errors.

The 'Average Absolute Error' is the forecaster/s ‘Total Absolute Error’ divided by the number of stations where snow was forecast or observed.

The ‘RSQ error’ statistic is a measure of the how well the forecast captured the variability of the observed snowfall. Combined with the SUMSQ error statistic…RSQ provides added information about how strong the forecaster/s ‘model’ performed.