10th Annual
NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest
’08 / ‘09 - Final Standings

 

8 Storms
683” Total Snowfall

2,353 Station Forecasts

 

25 Forecasters

6 Rookies

3 Interns

4 Journeyman

12 Senior

 

Top Forecaster:  donsutherland1

 

NEWxSFC - Final Standings

AVG SUMSQ

AVG STP

AVG Total Absolute

AVG Absolute

Mean RSQ

 

Previous Ranks

Rank

Forecaster

Class

Total STN 4casts

Error (")

Error Z

% MPRV over AVG

Rank

4cast (")

Error

Error Z

% MPRV over AVG

Rank

Error (")

Error Z

% MPRV over AVG

Rank

Error (")

Error Z

%MPRV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

% MPRV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

2,1,1,1,1

1

donsutherland1

Chief

116

79

-1.025

53%

2

88.2

9.4

-0.550

46%

5

26.96

-1.171

35%

2

1.37

-1.117

35%

2

75.4%

0.926

33%

3

donsutherland1

5,2,2,3,2

2

shanabe

Senior

118

104

-0.743

34%

5

82.5

22.2

0.099

-7%

8

32.77

-0.765

21%

5

1.62

-0.740

19%

5

71.3%

0.895

29%

4

shanabe

10,6,3,4,3

3

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

136

104

-0.737

34%

4

94.2

12.8

-0.536

18%

4

35.82

-0.660

15%

5

1.56

-0.817

19%

4

62.2%

0.169

3%

6

Donald Rosenfeld

-,-,-,2,5

4

Raven

Senior

131

129

-0.564

27%

5

94.9

18.4

-0.112

8%

7

40.01

-0.438

11%

6

1.83

-0.469

12%

6

63.5%

0.341

8%

7

Raven

-,-,-,5,7

5

herb @maws

Senior

120

131

-0.310

17%

7

78.9

18.2

-0.219

17%

8

36.87

-0.321

10%

7

1.84

-0.319

11%

6

61.4%

0.189

7%

8

herb@maws

8,-,-,8,6

6

Mitchel Volk

Senior

133

172

-0.204

9%

8

115.2

23.6

0.014

-7%

7

45.41

-0.279

7%

7

2.05

-0.244

6%

7

65.7%

0.359

18%

7

Mitchel Volk

4,4,4,7,8

7

TQ

Senior

117

173

0.083

-4%

9

82.3

26.8

0.455

-36%

10

41.53

-0.072

2%

7

2.05

0.095

-1%

8

63.8%

-0.007

-5%

8

TQ

6,5,5,9,9

8

ilibov

Senior

133

203

0.665

-26%

11

81.4

26.3

0.576

-36%

11

49.03

0.833

-19%

12

2.20

0.536

-10%

10

58.4%

-0.350

-14%

10

ilibov

11,8,6,11,10

9

weatherT

Rookie

111

208

0.790

-37%

12

62.6

31.1

0.597

-51%

10

47.28

0.738

-22%

12

2.64

1.172

-37%

12

59.5%

-0.166

-7%

10

weatherT

14,11,10,14,12

10

jackzig

Senior

127

282

0.884

-44%

11

100.2

21.7

0.040

8%

9

60.57

1.042

-31%

12

2.82

0.958

-27%

12

33.6%

-1.427

-43%

12

jackzig

 

 

 Ten Best Forecasts by Z-Score

Sum Square

Storm #

Date

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

5

10-Jan

emoran

Senior

23

68.80

-1.352

66.4%

1

7

28-Jan

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

25

56.35

-1.318

46.7%

1

2

19-Dec

bruced39

Journeyman

19

112.63

-1.318

52.7%

1

5

10-Jan

anthony

Rookie

20

75.07

-1.290

63.4%

2

6

18-Jan

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

24

84.05

-1.285

54.1%

1

7

28-Jan

skiGirl

Rookie

26

57.67

-1.283

45.5%

2

7

28-Jan

shanabe

Senior

25

60.60

-1.205

42.7%

3

4

7-Jan

shanabe

Senior

13

36.69

-1.201

59.7%

1

2

19-Dec

donsutherland1

Chief

19

123.92

-1.199

48.0%

2

2

19-Dec

emoran

Senior

19

125.89

-1.179

47.1%

3

 Ten Best Busts by Z-Score
Sum Square

Storm #

Date

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

1

17-Dec

answered7

Rookie

17

192.93

3.077

-325.0%

12

4

7-Jan

weathafella

Journeyman

15

218.11

2.816

-139.9%

16

3

21-Dec

jackzig

Senior

21

404.48

2.715

-141.3%

11

6

18-Jan

defman27

Intern

26

383.75

2.603

-109.6%

13

5

10-Jan

defman27

Intern

20

465.76

2.590

-127.3%

19

1

17-Dec

NYNJPAWeather

Rookie

15

79.39

2.539

-148.2%

11

8

2-Mar

weatherT

Rookie

27

793.75

2.538

-171.3%

12

2

19-Dec

weatherT

Rookie

16

466.58

2.399

-95.9%

18

7

28-Jan

ilibov

Senior

25

184.66

2.107

-74.6%

14

7

28-Jan

dmcguriman

Senior

25

156.27

1.349

-47.8%

13

 

 

  First Place Forecasters by Storm

Sum Square

Storm #

Date

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

1

17-Dec

wxduff

Intern

16

10.32

-1.160

67.7%

1

2

19-Dec

bruced39

Journeyman

19

112.63

-1.318

52.7%

1

3

21-Dec

emoran

Senior

21

79.18

-1.013

52.8%

1

4

7-Jan

shanabe
Senior

13

36.69

-1.201

59.7%

1

5

10-Jan

emoran

Senior

23

68.80

-1.352

66.4%

1

6

18-Jan

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

24

84.05

-1.285

54.1%

1

7

28-Jan

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

25

56.35

-1.318

46.7%

1

8

2-Mar

donsutherland1

Chief

27

106.03

-0.945

63.8%

1

 

Second Place Forecasters by Z-Score

Sum Square

Storm #

Date

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

5

10-Jan

anthony

Rookie

20

75.07

-1.290

63.4%

2

7

28-Jan

skiGirl

Rookie

26

57.67

-1.283

45.5%

2

2

19-Dec

donsutherland1

Chief

19

123.92

-1.199

48.0%

2

4

7-Jan

donsutherland1

Chief

11

40.93

-1.107

55.0%

2

1

17-Dec

donsutherland1

Chief

19

14.45

-0.939

54.8%

2

8

2-Mar

herb@maws

Senior

27

116.82

-0.890

60.1%

2

3

21-Dec

donsutherland1

Chief

19

90.78

-0.880

45.8%

2

6

18-Jan

Raven

Senior

22

117.90

-0.846

35.6%

2

 

Third Place Forecasters by Z-Score

Sum Square

Storm #

Date

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

7

28-Jan

shanabe

Senior

25

60.60

-1.205

42.7%

3

2

19-Dec

emoran

Senior

19

125.89

-1.179

47.1%

3

5

10-Jan

donsutherland1

Chief

21

95.99

-1.082

53.2%

3

4

7-Jan

NYNJPAWeather

Rookie

16

43.00

-1.061

52.7%

3

8

2-Mar

dmcguriman

Senior

27

127.03

-0.839

56.6%

3

6

18-Jan

Newa

Journeyman

24

122.18

-0.791

33.3%

3

3

21-Dec

Raven

Senior

23

101.45

-0.758

39.5%

3

1

17-Dec

dmcguriman

Senior

17

19.38

-0.675

39.4%

3

 

First Place Forecasters by Z-Score

Total Absolute

Storm #

Date

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

1

17-Dec

wxduff

Intern

16

9.05

-1.983

48.3%

1

7

28-Jan

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

25

28.00

-1.645

29.1%

1

5

10-Jan

emoran

Senior

23

29.90

-1.545

43.1%

1

2

19-Dec

donsutherland1

Chief

19

31.55

-1.461

37.4%

1

4

7-Jan

shanabe

Senior

13

13.40

-1.290

46.6%

1

6

18-Jan

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

24

32.15

-1.222

26.8%

1

3

21-Dec

emoran

Senior

21

25.45

-1.213

37.2%

1

8

2-Mar

herb@maws

Senior

27

42.05

-1.067

37.4%

1
 

First Place Forecasters by Z-Score

R-square

Storm #

Date

Forecaster

Class

4casts
R-SQ

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

7

28-Jan

shanabe

Senior

25

89.2%

2.086

36.0%

1

5

10-Jan

shanabe

Senior

20

63.2%

1.535

90.0%

1

5

10-Jan

emoran

Senior

23

62.9%

1.524

89.4%

2

5

10-Jan

donsutherland1

Chief

21

61.1%

1.430

83.8%

3

2

19-Dec

bruced39

Journeyman

19

81.3%

1.418

26.2%

1

2

19-Dec

donsutherland1

Chief

19

79.4%

1.261

23.3%

2

5

10-Jan

anthony

Rookie

20

57.1%

1.224

71.7%

4

2

19-Dec

emoran

Senior

19

78.7%

1.197

22.1%

3

 

 

Forecasters

Forecaster

Class

answered7

Rookie

answered7

Rookie

anthony

Rookie

anthony

Rookie

anthony

Rookie

anthony

Rookie

anthony

Rookie

apisces1

Journeyman

apisces1

Journeyman

bruced39

Journeyman

bruced39

Journeyman

bruced39

Journeyman

defman27

Intern

defman27

Intern

dmcguriman

Senior

dmcguriman

Senior

dmcguriman

Senior

dmcguriman

Senior

dmcguriman

Senior

Don Rooney

Senior

Don Rooney

Senior

Don Rooney

Senior

Don Rooney

Senior

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

donsutherland1

Chief

donsutherland1

Chief

donsutherland1

Chief

donsutherland1

Chief

donsutherland1

Chief

donsutherland1

Chief

donsutherland1

Chief

donsutherland1

Chief

emoran

Senior

emoran

Senior

emoran

Senior

emoran

Senior

emoran

Senior

herb@maws

Senior

herb@maws

Senior

herb@maws

Senior

herb@maws

Senior

herb@maws

Senior

herb@maws

Senior

herb@maws

Senior

ilibov

Senior

ilibov

Senior

ilibov

Senior

ilibov

Senior

ilibov

Senior

ilibov

Senior

jackzig

Senior

jackzig

Senior

jackzig

Senior

jackzig

Senior

jackzig

Senior

jackzig

Senior

MarkHofmann

Rookie

Mitchel Volk

Senior

Mitchel Volk

Senior

Mitchel Volk

Senior

Mitchel Volk

Senior

Mitchel Volk

Senior

Mitchel Volk

Senior

Newa

Journeyman

Newa

Journeyman

Newa

Journeyman

Newa

Journeyman

NYNJPAWeather

Rookie

NYNJPAWeather

Rookie

NYNJPAWeather

Rookie

NYNJPAWeather

Rookie

NYNJPAWeather

Rookie

Raven

Senior

Raven

Senior

Raven

Senior

Raven

Senior

Raven

Senior

Raven

Senior

shanabe

Senior

shanabe

Senior

shanabe

Senior

shanabe

Senior

shanabe

Senior

shanabe

Senior

skiGirl

Rookie

skiGirl

Rookie

skiGirl

Rookie

skiGirl

Rookie

TQ

Senior

TQ

Senior

TQ

Senior

TQ

Senior

TQ

Senior

TQ

Senior

TQ

Senior

TQ

Senior

TrekkerCC

Intern

weathafella

Journeyman

weatherT

Rookie

weatherT

Rookie

weatherT

Rookie

weatherT

Rookie

weatherT

Rookie

weatherT

Rookie

weatherT

Rookie

wxduff

Intern


Complete forecast summary data table (HTML)

 

Forecasters qualify for ranking in the FINAL standings if they enter at least two-thirds (2/3) of all Contests.  For example…if you made a total of nine (9) forecasts…your six (6) best forecasts are used to evaluate your performance.  You can think of it as dropping the worse quiz scores before your final grade is determined.  The reasons we have this rule are 1) to encourage forecasters to take on difficult and/or late-season storms without fear about how a bad forecast might degrade their overall 'season-to-date' performance score(s) and 2) to allow you to miss an event or two and still qualify for ranking.

 

The normalized average SUMSQ Error is the Contest/s primary measure of forecaster performance.  This metric measures how well the forecaster/s expected snowfall 'distribution and magnitude' for all stations captured the 'distribution and magnitude' of all observed snowfall amounts.  A forecaster with lower average SUMSQ Z-scores has made more skillful forecasts than a forecaster with higher average SUMSQ Z-scores.

 

The 'Storm Total Precipitation' error statistic is the absolute arithmetic difference between a forecaster/s sum total snowfall for all stations and the observed sum total snowfall.  This metric…by itself…is not a meaningful measure of skill…but can provide additional insight of a forecaster/s skill.

 

The 'Total Absolute Error' statistic is the average of your total forecast errors…regardless of whether you over-forecast or under-forecast.  This metric measures the magnitude of your absolute errors.

 

The 'Average Absolute Error' is the forecaster/s Total Absolute Error divided by the number of stations where snow was forecast or observed.

 

The RSQ error statistic is a measure of the how well the forecast captured the variability of the observed snowfall.