Forecasters: 15

14 veterans

1 rookie

 

Station forecasts: 288

Average stations per forecaster: 19

Stations with observed snowfall: 21

 

Storm-total precipitation (STP), all stations:

Forecast

Minimum:  55.7” (smadsen8486)

Consensus Median: 81.2”

Maximum:  108” (Mitchel Volk)

 

Observed: 99.95”

            Max single station: 15.1” BGR

Shutout:  IAD…DCA…SBY…RIC…ORF…RDU

 

New Daily Records:

12/3

BGR - 12.3” (8.8”; 1989)

JFK - 0.9” (0.1”; 2003)

 

12/4

BGM - 2.4” (1.4”; 1972)

 

***************************************************

Storm #1 - Results Summary

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

1st Place - donsutherland1

 

  • SUMSQ Error:  50.8”
  • SUMSQ - Z:  -1.284
  • STP:  14.25 (8th)
  • TAE:  24.35” (1st)
  • AAE:  1.22” (1st)


 

2nd Place - ilibov

 

  • SUMSQ Error: 78.6”
  • SUMSQ - Z:  -0.876 
  • STP:  10” (4th)
  • TAE:  31.5” (6th)

AAE: 1.58” (5th)


 


3rd Place - Superstorm

  • SUMSQ Error:  80.9”
  • SUMSQ - Z:  -0.842 
  • STP:  5.65” (3rd)
  • TAE:  25.45” (2nd)

AAE: 1.50” (3rd)


 


Honorable Mention - shanabe

 

  • SUMSQ Error:  86.3”
  • SUMSQ - Z:  -0.763
  • STP:  10.20” (5th)
  • TAE:  30.4” (4th)

AAE:  1.45” (2nd)


 


***************************************************

 

Perfect Forecasts

BOS

            DAROONEY

ISP

            Mitch Volk

PHL

            shanabe

ACY

            shanabe, ilibov

EWR

            bruced39

BWI

            shanabe, TQ, dmcguriman

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Forecaster

Rank

Lowest Error Stations

TOT

bat avg

pjc368

1

CON BDR BDL MDT

4

0.267

bruced39

2

PWM BDL ISP JFK EWR

5

0.250

herb@maws

3

BGR HYA PVD ABE

4

0.235

Superstorm

4

PWM HYA PVD

3

0.176

jackzig

5

ORH BDL ISP

3

0.158

Mitchel Volk

5

CAR ISP JFK

3

0.158

ilibov

7

BDL JFK ACY

3

0.150

shanabe

8

PHL ACY BWI

3

0.143

DAROONEY

9

BOS MDT

2

0.118

rosenfeld

10

BTV BGM

2

0.111

donsutherland1

11

CAR ALB

2

0.100

TQ

12

ORH BWI

2

0.087

dmcguriman

12

PWM BWI

2

0.087

smadsen8486

14

HYA

1

0.053

Raven

15

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Forecaster

Rank

Highest Station Error

TOT

bat avg

Mitchel Volk

1

CON BOS HYA ORH PVD BDR BDL ALB BWI

9

0.474

pjc368

2

ISP JFK BWI IAD

4

0.267

Superstorm

3

BGM ISP JFK BWI

4

0.235

DAROONEY

3

CAR PWM EWR BWI

4

0.235

TQ

5

BTV PHL ACY EWR DCA

5

0.217

rosenfeld