Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from '20th Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘29-JAN-19’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station
In the table ...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the upper (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors (forecast accuracy measure accounting for magnitude and distribution of errors)
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters
Perfect Forecasts
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Consensus forecast best @ CAR … CON … BGM … ABE
MAX forecast best @ ORH … IAD
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @ BGR … ALB
MIN forecasts more than observed @
Strong correlation (R = 0.899) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
Forecast trend line above (below) red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast
R2 value indicates the how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability, i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.
*******************************
Table of verified storm-total snowfall by station from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) … PNS … and / or ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.
Good coverage and reporting with exceptions at BDR and MDT.
BDR
No snowfall report carried in 30-JAN CLI or F6 bulletins.
METARs reported brief burst of heavy snow with late-day Arctic FROPA.
JFK and ISP observed 0.2" around the same time.
Final STP may be revised from reported value if update issued by WFO OKX.
MDT
No snowfall report carried in 30-JAN CLI or F6 bulletins.
METARs reported brief period of moderate snow with mid-day Arctic FROPA.
Final STP may be revised from reported value if update issued by WFO CTP.
HYA
Trace STP based on METAR analysis and the lack of spotter reports in PNSBOX.
---
Stations observing at least Trace - 24 (89%)
Given stations having a measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:
4" - 8 (33%)
6" - 2 (8%)
8" - 0 (0%)
No new daily records
---
