Complete Results @
Follow the left-side link from '20th Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘19-JAN-19’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station
In the table ...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the upper (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors (forecast accuracy measure accounting for magnitude and distribution of errors)
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Consensus forecast best @ CAR
MAX forecast best @ BTV …ORH
MAX forecast less than observed @ BTV
MIN forecasts best @ BGR … PWM … CON …BOS …ORH …PVD … BDR … ABE … MDT … EWR
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BOS … JFK … EWR
Strong correlation (R = 0.834) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
Forecast trend line above (below) red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast
R2 value indicates the how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability, i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.
Table of verified storm-total snowfall by station for SAT and SUN from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) … PNS … and / or ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.
Less than perfect coverage and reporting.
ABE 2.4" snowfall observed SAT.
No daily climate report for SUN/s snowfall.
METARs reported no frozen precipitation on SUN.
HYA storm-total snowfall estimated by inverse distance weighting of vicinity reports carried in BOX PNS.
Stations observing at least Trace - 17 (63%)
Given a forecast station observed measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:
4" - 9 (53%)
6" - 7 (41%)
8" - 5 (29%)
12" - 4 (24%)
14" - 2 (12%)
Two new daily records
SUN ... 20-JAN-19
BTV - 15.6" (10.6"; 1978)
ALB - 10.4" (8.7"; 1978)
Also set on SUN ... new daily liquid records at ALB (1.25") ... CAR (1.45") ... and PVD (2.04").