Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from '20th Annual Snow Storm Contest > Verified Forecasts > ‘19-JAN-19’ to see the complete forecasters’ verification table by station

 

In the table ...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the upper (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (forecast accuracy measure accounting for magnitude and distribution of errors)

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

 

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

 

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

 

Consensus forecast best @ CAR

MAX forecast best @ BTV …ORH

MAX forecast less than observed @ BTV

MIN forecasts best @ BGR … PWM … CON …BOS …ORH …PVD … BDR … ABE … MDT … EWR

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BOS … JFK … EWR

 

 

Strong correlation (R = 0.834) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

Forecast trend line above (below) red Observed snowfall line ==> over (under) forecast

R2 value indicates the how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability, i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured ~87% of the observed snowfall’s variability.

 

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Table of verified storm-total snowfall by station for SAT and SUN from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) … PNS … and / or ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.

 

Less than perfect coverage and reporting.

 

ABE 2.4" snowfall observed SAT.

No daily climate report for SUN/s snowfall.

METARs reported no frozen precipitation on SUN.

 

HYA storm-total snowfall estimated by inverse distance weighting of vicinity reports carried in BOX PNS.

 

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Stations observing at least Trace - 17 (63%)

 

Given a forecast station observed measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:

4" - 9 (53%)

6" - 7 (41%)

8" - 5 (29%)

12" - 4 (24%)

14" - 2 (12%)

 

Two new daily records

SUN ... 20-JAN-19

BTV - 15.6" (10.6"; 1978)

ALB - 10.4" (8.7"; 1978)

 

Also set on SUN ... new daily liquid records at ALB (1.25") ... CAR (1.45") ... and PVD (2.04").

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