Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from '20th Annual Snow Storm Contest > Storm Summaries > Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Station by Station
Comparison of Top Forecasters
Perfect Forecasts
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Consensus forecast best @ BGM
MAX forecast best @ CAR …ORH
MAX forecast less than observed @ ORH
MIN forecasts best @ CON … BOS
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGR … PWM … CON … BOS … HYA …PVD … BDR … BDL … SBY
Strong correlation (R = 0.970) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
Data points above (below) redline ==> over (under) forecast
R2 value indicates the how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability, i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured 87.4% of the observed snowfall’s variability.
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Table of verified storm-total snowfall by station for THU
and FRI from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.
Exceptions:
BDR - daily snowfall reports missing.
STP estimated from METAR 6/0000 group @ SLR 10:1
SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall
b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the
verification period.
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Stations observing at least Trace - 20 (74%)
Given a forecast station observed measurable snowfall ...
stations observing at least:
4" - 10 (50%)
6" - 5 (30%)
8" - 3 (15%)
10" - 0
Max snow melt-water
CAR - 0.70"
BTV - 0.62"
CON - 0.60"
JFK - 0.91"
BGM SLR 6:1 (no liquid precipitation reported)
Max precipitation:
ACY - 1.73"
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New daily records:
15-NOV-18 (1)
ORH - 7.8" (5.7"; 1967)
Eleven daily records set this day -- some held since 1906;
however ... snow fell on ten stations before the deadline; therefore ... they
are not included.
16-NOV-18 (4)
CAR - 9.3" (5.4"; 1973)
BGM - 4" (1.8"; 1987, 1999)
ABE - 0.7" (0.05"; 1995)
MDT - 0.5" (0.05"; 1985)
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