Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from '20th Annual Snow Storm Contest > Storm Summaries > Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

 

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

 

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

 

Consensus forecast best @ BGM

MAX forecast best @ CAR …ORH

MAX forecast less than observed @ ORH

MIN forecasts best @ CON … BOS

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGR … PWM … CON … BOS … HYA …PVD … BDR … BDL … SBY

 

Strong correlation (R = 0.970) between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

Data points above (below) redline ==> over (under) forecast

R2 value indicates the how well the forecast captured the observed snowfall’s variability, i.e., R2 = 0.874 ==> the forecast captured 87.4% of the observed snowfall’s variability.

 

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Table of verified storm-total snowfall by station for THU and FRI from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) and ... SAUS41 (METAR) bulletins.

 

Exceptions:

BDR - daily snowfall reports missing.

STP estimated from METAR 6/0000 group @ SLR 10:1

 

SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

 

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Stations observing at least Trace - 20 (74%)

 

Given a forecast station observed measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:

4" - 10 (50%)

6" - 5 (30%)

8" - 3 (15%)

10" - 0

 

Max snow melt-water

CAR - 0.70"

BTV - 0.62"

CON - 0.60"

JFK - 0.91"

 

BGM SLR 6:1 (no liquid precipitation reported)

 

Max precipitation:  ACY - 1.73"

 

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New daily records:

15-NOV-18 (1)

ORH - 7.8" (5.7"; 1967)

 

Eleven daily records set this day -- some held since 1906; however ... snow fell on ten stations before the deadline; therefore ... they are not included.

 

16-NOV-18 (4)

CAR - 9.3" (5.4"; 1973)

BGM - 4" (1.8"; 1987, 1999)

ABE - 0.7" (0.05"; 1995)

MDT - 0.5" (0.05"; 1985)

 

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https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html?ql=station&zoom=&loc=Latitude%2CLongitude%3B+City%2CST%3B+or+Station+ID&var=snowfall_24_h&dy=2018&dm=11&dd=17&dh=0&snap=1&o9=1&o13=1&lbl=m&mode=pan&extents=us&min_x=-84.608333333335&min_y=35.224999999996&max_x=-62.216666666669&max_y=47.816666666662&coord_x=-73.412500000002&coord_y=41.520833333329&zbox_n=&zbox_s=&zbox_e=&zbox_w=&metric=0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&width=800&height=450&nw=800&nh=450&h_o=0&font=0&js=1&uc=0

 

 

 

 

      

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