Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts Contest #3 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

 

Perfect Forecasts

 

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

 

Consensus forecast best @ BTV BDR

MAX forecast best @ BGR BGM

MAX forecast less than observed @ BGM

MIN forecasts best @ CAR PWM BOS HYA ORH PVD BDL ISP JFK ABE

MIN forecasts more than observed @ CAR CON BOS

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

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Verification:

Good data from CDUS41 PNS and F6 bulletins.

 

Exceptions:

HYA

Storm-total snowfall estimated by interpolation of vicinity PNSBOX reports and evaluation of METARs.

 

ORH

13-FEB/s daily CLI and CF6 bulletins carry 'MM' as daily snowfall at post-time. Storm-total snowfall entered as reported by PNSGYX and evaluation of METARs. Value subject to change pending CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletin updates.

 

IAD

Daily climate bulletin carries 'T'; however ... no evidence of frozen precipitation in METARs.

Table of storm-total snowfalls for SUN and MON from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.

 

New Daily Records:

SUN ... 12-FEB-17

BTV - 7.6" (6.8"; 1988)

 

MON ... 13-FEB-17

BGR - 21.5" (6.3"; 1977)

 

 

Map of Modeled Snow Water Equivalent

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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