Full results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Snow Storm Contest Verified Forecasts Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the upper (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ: sum of square errors (primary measure of skill)

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

Perfect Forecasts

 

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

 

Consensus forecast best @ CAR BGR BGM

MAX forecast best @ PWM

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ BTV ALB

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BTV

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

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Verification:

Good data from CDUS41 PNS and F6 bulletins.

 

No Snow-Liquid ratios for mixed precipitation conditions ... such as PWM and BOS ... where 1.84" and 1.16 liquid respectively was measured.

 

 

New Daily Records:

29-DEC-2016

CON - 8.3" (7.1"; 1956)

 

00z 30-DEC-16

 

 

 

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