Full results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Snow Storm Contest Verified Forecasts – Storm #1’ to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the upper (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors (primary measure of skill)

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

Perfect Forecasts

 

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

 

Consensus forecast best @ CAR … BGR … BGM

MAX forecast best @ PWM

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ BTV … ALB

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BTV

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41 … PNS … and F6 bulletins.

 

No Snow-Liquid ratios for mixed precipitation conditions ... such as PWM and BOS ... where 1.84" and 1.16” liquid respectively … was measured.

 

 

New Daily Records:

29-DEC-2016

CON - 8.3" (7.1"; 1956)

 

00z 30-DEC-16

 

 

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2016123000.Wa.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2016123000.850a.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2016123000.700a.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2016123000.500a.naconf.gif

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2016123000.300a.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2016123000.100a.nh.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2016123000.10a.nh.gif