Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #2 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Perfect Forecasts
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Consensus forecast best @ BDL … ALB … MDT
MAX forecast best @
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @ CON …HYA …BDR … ABE …PHL … ACY … EWR … BWI
MIN forecasts more than observed @ HYA …BDR …ISP … JFK …ABE …PHL … ACY … EWR … BWI
Excellent association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good coverage but spotty coverage from CDUS41 … PNS … and F6 bulletins.
PWM
11-FEB climate bulletins reported 0.11" liquid but
0" snow.
METAR carried all snow during the period of precipitation.
Previous days' 13.1: 1 SN:H20 was
applied to the reported 0.11" liquid for an estimated daily snowfall of
1.5"
HYA
P- and 6-groups carried all 0s throughout the event.
VSBY briefly 3/4 SM; otherwise ... ~2 SM.
Estimated STP no more then
0.1"
SBY
PNSAKQ carried a report from a city official of 1".
Daily climate data shows 1" snow and 0.02" liquid
(SN:H20 = 50:1)
PNSPHI carried reports from neighboring Sussex county ... DE where MAX snowfall of 0.7" came from Delmar located five miles north of SBY.
SBY/s reported 1" snowfall appears reasonable but not the liquid equivalent.
New Daily Records:
none