Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #2 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

Perfect Forecasts

 

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

 

 

Consensus forecast best @ BDL … ALB … MDT

MAX forecast best @

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ CON …HYA …BDR … ABE …PHL … ACY … EWR … BWI

MIN forecasts more than observed @ HYA …BDR …ISP … JFK …ABE …PHL … ACY … EWR … BWI

 

 

Excellent association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

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Verification:

Good coverage but spotty coverage from CDUS41 … PNS … and F6 bulletins.

 

PWM

11-FEB climate bulletins reported 0.11" liquid but 0" snow.

METAR carried all snow during the period of precipitation.

Previous days' 13.1: 1 SN:H20 was applied to the reported 0.11" liquid for an estimated daily snowfall of 1.5"

 

HYA

P- and 6-groups carried all 0s throughout the event.

VSBY briefly 3/4 SM; otherwise ... ~2 SM.

Estimated STP no more then 0.1"

 

SBY

PNSAKQ carried a report from a city official of 1".

Daily climate data shows 1" snow and 0.02" liquid (SN:H20 = 50:1)

 

PNSPHI carried reports from neighboring Sussex county ... DE where MAX snowfall of 0.7" came from Delmar located five miles north of SBY.

SBY/s reported 1" snowfall appears reasonable but not the liquid equivalent.

 

 

 

New Daily Records:  none

 

 

 

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