Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Perfect Forecasts
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Consensus forecast best @ ORH … PVD … BDL … ORF
MAX forecast best @ HYA … ISP … PHL … EWR … BWI … IAD
MAX forecast less than observed @ ISP … JHK … ABE … MDT …EWR … BWI
MIN forecasts best @
MIN forecasts more than observed @
Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
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Verification:
Good data from CDUS41 … PNS… and F6 bulletins.
Stations reporting snow without an SN:H20 observed mixed-type precipitation.
DCA STP in question.
Vicinity reports to the north suggest an under-measurement.
Sensitivity analysis on forecasts with a 30"
verification shows no impact on top three finishers (HM flips) with minor
shuffling in the pack/s middle.
Note the SLRs are similar at IAD and BWI.
AP
reporting on the controversy.
The two vicinity sites mentioned in the article are ~3 miles
NNW (Adams Morgan neighborhood) and ~5 miles NW (Dalecarlia
Reservoir) distant from DCA.
Meanwhile ... ~2 miles across the Potomac river to the east
in Anacostia ... MD ... a trained spotter reported 19" and about the same
distance to the SSE a 17" report from National Harbor ... VA.
Reporting issues continue at SBY.
SBY/s 6" STP comes from a ‘media’ report carried in
AKQ/s Public Information Statement (PNS).
HYA/s 14" STP comes from an ‘amateur radio’ report
carried in BOXPNS.
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New Daily Records:
Boatload of new daily records for SAT ... 23-JAN-16
JFK - 30.3" (3.6"; 2005)
ABE - 30.2" (7.7"; 1966)
EWR - 27.5" (4.5"; 2005)
MDT - 26.4" (9.5"; 1982)
BWI - 25.5" (11.5"; 1935)
ISP - 23.4" (4.2"; 2005)
IAD - 22.1" (1.7"; 1982)
PHL - 19.4" (11.9"; 1935)
BDR - 12" (7.1"; 1965)
DCA - 11.3" (11"; 1935)
ACY - 10.1" (1.2"; 1948)
RIC - 5.3" (2.7"; 1908)
ORF - 1.2" (1"; 2000)
RDU - 1.2" (1.2", 1954) [22-JAN-16]
Several heavy snowfall records set in 1935 fell by the wayside.
Remarkably similar synoptics.