Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #6 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ HYA … PVD … ISP … ABE …MDT …PHL … EWR

MAX forecast best @ CAR

MAX forecast less than observed @ CAR

MIN forecasts best @ BWI …IAD …DCA …SBY …RIC …ORF

MIN forecasts more than observed @ IAD …DCA

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

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Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.

SBY/s STP estimated by applying RIC/s SN:H2O (10.4:1) to SBY/s storm-total liquid precipitation.

HYA/s STP interpolated from vicinity reports carried in PNSBOX.

New Daily Records:

TUE ... 17-FEB-15

ISP - 3.4" (2.5"; 1996)

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