Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #5 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Perfect Forecasts
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Consensus forecast best @ HYA …ORH …PVD … BDL …ALB …BGM
MAX forecast best @ BWI
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @ CAR …BGR …PWM …BTV …BDR …ISP …JFK …ABE …MDT …PHL …EWR
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGR …PWM …BDR … ISP …JFK …ABE …EWR
Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
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Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
SBY/s 0.2" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O … observation of –TSSN .. and vicinity report carried in PNSPHI
HYA/s STP interpolated from vicinity reports carried in PNSBOX.
New Daily Records:
14-FEB-15
BOS - 13"
(8.5"; 1904)
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