Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #5 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

 

Perfect Forecasts

 

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

 

 

Consensus forecast best @ HYA …ORH …PVD … BDL …ALB …BGM

MAX forecast best @ BWI

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ CAR …BGR …PWM …BTV …BDR …ISP …JFK …ABE …MDT …PHL …EWR

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGR …PWM …BDR … ISP …JFK …ABE …EWR

 

 

 

Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

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Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.

 

SBY/s 0.2" STP estimated from the METAR 6-group at 10:1 SN:H2O … observation of –TSSN .. and vicinity report carried in PNSPHI

HYA/s STP interpolated from vicinity reports carried in PNSBOX.

 

 

 

New Daily Records:
14-FEB-15

BOS - 13" (8.5"; 1904)

 

Map of Modeled Snow Depth

 

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http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2015021512.300a.naconf.gif

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/maps/2015021512.100a.nh.gif

 

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