Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm-total Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Contest #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.

Forecast STP cells are yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm total precipitation

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Perfect Forecasts

Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Consensus forecast best @ PWM

MAX forecast best @ CAR … BTV …ALB … BGM

MAX forecast less than observed @ ALB

MIN forecasts best @ BOS …PVD …BDR … ISP … JFK MDT … ACY …BWI … DCA

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BOS

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

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Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.

PWM/s 6.3 SN:H20 appears to be close since there was 20 minutes of light mixed precipitation before turning to all snow.

New Daily Records:

WED … 26-NOV-14

CON - 10.3" (4.5"; 1956)

ALB - 9.6" (4.9"; 1888)

BGM - 9" (8.7"; 1977)

PWM - 7.4" (7"; 1885)

ORH - 5.3" (2.9"; 1921)

ABE - 4.9" (1.7"; 1925)

BDL - 4.6" (0.4"; 1985)

IAD - 1.6" (1.1"; 1978)

ACY - 0.05" (0.05"; 1977)

Two new daily rainfall records:

WED ... 26-NOV-14

ORH - 1.79" (1.78"; 1958)

RDU - 1.69" (0.98”; 1979)

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