Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Snow Storm #7 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
63.2 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
donsutherland1 |
Senior |
23 |
103.7 |
-0.841 |
53.7% |
1 |
82.2 |
19.00 |
0.011 |
-0.9% |
7 |
29.0 |
-0.705 |
27.2% |
3 |
1.26 |
-1.463 |
42.7% |
1 |
86.8% |
1.077 |
19.6% |
2 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
14 |
108.3 |
-0.809 |
51.6% |
2 |
79.4 |
16.15 |
-0.162 |
14.2% |
6 |
26.5 |
-0.865 |
33.3% |
1 |
1.90 |
-0.475 |
13.9% |
3 |
88.0% |
1.170 |
21.3% |
1 |
Brad Yehl |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
21 |
128.2 |
-0.670 |
42.8% |
3 |
52.6 |
10.65 |
-0.497 |
43.4% |
3 |
27.6 |
-0.800 |
30.8% |
2 |
1.31 |
-1.384 |
40.4% |
2 |
83.9% |
0.860 |
15.7% |
3 |
Roger Smith |
|
TQ |
Senior |
17 |
135.6 |
-0.618 |
39.5% |
4 |
83.0 |
19.80 |
0.059 |
-5.2% |
8 |
32.6 |
-0.471 |
18.2% |
4 |
1.92 |
-0.442 |
12.9% |
4 |
82.1% |
0.724 |
13.2% |
4 |
TQ |
|
Herb@MAWS |
Senior |
15 |
168.6 |
-0.387 |
24.7% |
5 |
75.1 |
11.90 |
-0.421 |
36.8% |
4 |
32.8 |
-0.458 |
17.7% |
5 |
2.19 |
-0.024 |
0.7% |
5 |
75.9% |
0.248 |
4.5% |
5 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
WeatherT |
Senior |
20 |
241.1 |
0.120 |
-7.6% |
6 |
72.7 |
9.45 |
-0.570 |
49.8% |
2 |
48.3 |
0.548 |
-21.1% |
8 |
2.41 |
0.327 |
-9.6% |
6 |
64.3% |
-0.624 |
-11.3% |
6 |
WeatherT |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
16 |
261.2 |
0.261 |
-16.6% |
7 |
68.8 |
5.55 |
-0.807 |
70.5% |
1 |
43.1 |
0.209 |
-8.1% |
7 |
2.69 |
0.759 |
-22.2% |
7 |
61.0% |
-0.877 |
-16.0% |
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
snowman |
Senior |
14 |
283.4 |
0.415 |
-26.5% |
8 |
50.0 |
13.20 |
-0.342 |
29.9% |
5 |
40.2 |
0.024 |
-0.9% |
6 |
2.87 |
1.040 |
-30.4% |
8 |
63.2% |
-0.714 |
-13.0% |
7 |
snowman |
|
snocat918 |
Intern |
24 |
585.7 |
2.530 |
-161.5% |
9 |
126.9 |
63.70 |
2.730 |
-238.4% |
9 |
78.5 |
2.518 |
-97.1% |
9 |
3.27 |
1.661 |
-48.5% |
9 |
47.9% |
-1.865 |
-33.9% |
9 |
snocat918 |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
164 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
14 |
103.7 |
-0.841 |
-161.5% |
1 |
50.0 |
5.5 |
-0.807 |
-238.4% |
1 |
26.5 |
-0.865 |
-97.1% |
1 |
1.26 |
-1.463 |
-48.5% |
1 |
47.9% |
-1.865 |
-33.9% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
24 |
585.7 |
2.530 |
53.7% |
9 |
126.9 |
63.7 |
2.730 |
70.5% |
9 |
78.5 |
2.518 |
33.3% |
9 |
3.27 |
1.661 |
42.7% |
9 |
88.0% |
1.170 |
21.3% |
9 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
18 |
224.0 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
76.7 |
18.8 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
39.8 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
2.20 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
72.6% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
17 |
168.6 |
-0.387 |
24.7% |
5 |
75.1 |
13.2 |
-0.342 |
29.9% |
5 |
32.8 |
-0.458 |
17.7% |
5 |
2.19 |
-0.024 |
0.7% |
5 |
75.9% |
0.248 |
4.5% |
5 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
4 |
143.0 |
1.000 |
63.8% |
2.6 |
21.0 |
16.4 |
1.000 |
87.3% |
2.6 |
15.4 |
1.000 |
38.6% |
2.6 |
0.64 |
1.000 |
29.2% |
2.6 |
13.2% |
1.000 |
18.2% |
2.6 |
STD |
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
snowman |
BOS ALB |
0.143 |
|
2 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BDR ISP |
0.125 |
|
3 |
Brad Yehl |
BDR |
0.071 |
|
4 |
Herb@MAWS |
ISP |
0.067 |
|
5 |
WeatherT |
HYA |
0.050 |
|
6 |
snocat918 |
ISP |
0.042 |
|
7 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0.000 |
|
7 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
|
7 |
TQ |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Herb@MAWS |
CAR BGR PVD ISP ABE |
5 |
0.333 |
|
2 |
snowman |
PWM BOS ALB ABE |
4 |
0.286 |
|
3 |
Brad Yehl |
BDR BDL ABE |
3 |
0.214 |
|
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BDR ISP ABE |
3 |
0.188 |
|
5 |
TQ |
BTV ORH PVD |
3 |
0.176 |
|
6 |
Roger Smith |
PWM CON BGM |
3 |
0.143 |
|
7 |
WeatherT |
HYA |
1 |
0.050 |
|
8 |
donsutherland1 |
ABE |
1 |
0.043 |
|
9 |
snocat918 |
ISP |
1 |
0.042 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
snocat918 |
PWM CON BOS ORH PVD BDL
BGM ABE MDT PHL ACY BWI IAD DCA RIC |
15 |
0.625 |
|
2 |
donsutherland1 |
HYA BWI IAD DCA SBY RIC |
6 |
0.261 |
|
3 |
WeatherT |
BDR ALB JFK EWR BWI |
5 |
0.250 |
|
4 |
Roger Smith |
BGR BWI IAD |
3 |
0.143 |
|
4 |
snowman |
CAR BTV |
2 |
0.143 |
|
6 |
TQ |
ISP JFK |
2 |
0.118 |
|
7 |
Brad Yehl |
ORH |
1 |
0.071 |
|
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
8 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ ORH…ALB
MAX forecast best @ BTV
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @ PWM…CON…BGM
MIN forecasts more than observed @ PWM…CON…BGM
Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
HYA STP estimated from vicinity PNSBOX reports and METARs.
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
H2O |
|
1 |
BTV |
18.7 |
27.5 |
0.68 |
|
2 |
CAR |
16.1 |
16.4 |
0.98 |
|
3 |
BGR |
12.4 |
|
-
|
|
4 |
ALB |
5.5 |
|
-
|
|
5 |
ORH |
3.1 |
19.4 |
0.16 |
|
6 |
CON |
2.5 |
|
-
|
|
7 |
BOS |
1.5 |
|
-
|
|
7 |
PWM |
1.5 |
|
-
|
|
9 |
PVD |
1.1 |
18.3 |
0.06 |
|
10 |
BGM |
0.4 |
|
-
|
|
11 |
HYA |
0.5 |
|
-
|
|
12 |
ABE |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
12 |
BDL |
0.05 |
|
- |
|
12 |
BDR |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
12 |
ISP |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
|
ACY |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
BWI |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
DCA |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
EWR |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
IAD |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
JFK |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
MDT |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
PHL |
-
|
|
- |
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
SBY |
-
|
|
-
|
|
|
TOT |
63.3 |
20.4 |
1.8 |
New Daily Records:
WED:
BTV - 15.2" (7.2"; 1959)
THU:
CAR - 9.7" (8.7"; 1953)