Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Snow Storm #6 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
32.7 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
15 |
50.9 |
-0.684 |
82.5% |
1 |
49.3 |
16.60 |
-1.070 |
62.2% |
1 |
22.7 |
-0.998 |
52.8% |
1 |
1.51 |
-0.998 |
52.8% |
1 |
66.1% |
-0.250 |
-5.8% |
11 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
15 |
80.3 |
-0.600 |
72.4% |
2 |
55.3 |
22.65 |
-0.833 |
48.4% |
2 |
28.5 |
-0.768 |
40.7% |
2 |
1.90 |
-0.768 |
40.7% |
2 |
74.7% |
0.281 |
6.5% |
7 |
Mitchel Volk |
Shillelagh |
Senior |
15 |
84.5 |
-0.588 |
71.0% |
3 |
57.6 |
24.90 |
-0.745 |
43.3% |
3 |
29.6 |
-0.727 |
38.5% |
3 |
1.97 |
-0.727 |
38.5% |
3 |
79.2% |
0.559 |
12.9% |
4 |
Shillelagh |
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
15 |
94.5 |
-0.560 |
67.5% |
4 |
63.5 |
30.85 |
-0.512 |
29.8% |
4 |
32.3 |
-0.623 |
33.0% |
4 |
2.15 |
-0.623 |
33.0% |
4 |
86.1% |
0.990 |
22.8% |
1 |
Brad Yehl |
donsutherland1 |
Senior |
15 |
109.7 |
-0.517 |
62.3% |
5 |
65.6 |
32.95 |
-0.430 |
25.0% |
5 |
33.6 |
-0.572 |
30.3% |
5 |
2.24 |
-0.572 |
30.3% |
5 |
84.4% |
0.884 |
20.3% |
2 |
donsutherland1 |
Herb@MAWS |
Senior |
15 |
125.0 |
-0.473 |
57.1% |
6 |
69.1 |
36.40 |
-0.295 |
17.1% |
8 |
37.3 |
-0.425 |
22.5% |
6 |
2.49 |
-0.425 |
22.5% |
6 |
79.0% |
0.549 |
12.6% |
5 |
Herb@MAWS |
TQ |
Senior |
15 |
145.0 |
-0.416 |
50.2% |
7 |
67.6 |
34.95 |
-0.351 |
20.4% |
6 |
39.8 |
-0.329 |
17.4% |
7 |
2.65 |
-0.329 |
17.4% |
7 |
81.3% |
0.692 |
15.9% |
3 |
TQ |
WeatherT |
Senior |
15 |
164.7 |
-0.360 |
43.4% |
8 |
68.1 |
35.45 |
-0.332 |
19.3% |
7 |
42.4 |
-0.223 |
11.8% |
8 |
2.83 |
-0.223 |
11.8% |
8 |
75.8% |
0.350 |
8.1% |
6 |
WeatherT |
ezwx |
Rookie |
15 |
172.6 |
-0.337 |
40.7% |
9 |
73.3 |
40.60 |
-0.130 |
7.6% |
9 |
45.6 |
-0.100 |
5.3% |
9 |
3.04 |
-0.100 |
5.3% |
9 |
73.8% |
0.226 |
5.2% |
9 |
ezwx |
snocat918 |
Intern |
15 |
262.7 |
-0.081 |
9.8% |
10 |
74.9 |
42.20 |
-0.067 |
3.9% |
10 |
48.8 |
0.026 |
-1.4% |
10 |
3.25 |
0.026 |
-1.4% |
10 |
73.8% |
0.230 |
5.3% |
8 |
snocat918 |
iralibov |
Senior |
15 |
350.6 |
0.169 |
-20.4% |
11 |
86.6 |
53.90 |
0.391 |
-22.7% |
11 |
58.4 |
0.402 |
-21.3% |
11 |
3.89 |
0.402 |
-21.3% |
11 |
32.3% |
-2.345 |
-54.0% |
13 |
iralibov |
Roger Smith |
Senior |
15 |
867.7 |
1.641 |
-198.0% |
12 |
126.8 |
94.15 |
1.968 |
-114.4% |
12 |
94.4 |
1.812 |
-96.0% |
12 |
6.29 |
1.812 |
-96.0% |
12 |
68.6% |
-0.098 |
-2.3% |
10 |
Roger Smith |
MarkHofmann |
Senior |
15 |
1277.3 |
2.807 |
-338.6% |
13 |
138.0 |
105.35 |
2.407 |
-139.9% |
13 |
112.5 |
2.525 |
-133.8% |
13 |
7.50 |
2.525 |
-133.8% |
13 |
36.8% |
-2.066 |
-47.6% |
12 |
MarkHofmann |
Forecast
Parameters |
195 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
MIN |
15 |
50.9 |
-0.684 |
-338.6% |
1 |
49.3 |
16.6 |
-1.070 |
-139.9% |
1 |
22.7 |
-0.998 |
-133.8% |
1 |
1.51 |
-0.998 |
-133.8% |
1 |
32.3% |
-2.345 |
-54.0% |
1 |
MIN |
|
MAX |
15 |
1277.3 |
2.807 |
82.5% |
13 |
138.0 |
105.4 |
2.407 |
62.2% |
13 |
112.5 |
2.525 |
52.8% |
13 |
7.50 |
2.525 |
52.8% |
13 |
86.1% |
0.990 |
22.8% |
13 |
MAX |
|
AVG |
15 |
291.2 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
76.6 |
43.9 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
48.1 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
3.21 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
70.1% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
AVG |
|
Median |
15 |
145.0 |
-0.416 |
50.2% |
7 |
68.1 |
35.5 |
-0.332 |
19.3% |
7 |
39.8 |
-0.329 |
17.4% |
7 |
2.65 |
-0.329 |
17.4% |
7 |
74.7% |
0.281 |
6.5% |
7 |
Median |
|
Mode |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
STD |
0 |
351.3 |
1.000 |
120.7% |
3.7 |
25.5 |
25.5 |
1.000 |
58.1% |
3.7 |
25.5 |
1.000 |
53.0% |
3.7 |
1.70 |
1.000 |
53.0% |
3.7 |
16.1% |
1.000 |
23.0% |
3.7 |
STD |
|
25% |
15 |
94.5 |
-0.560 |
9.8% |
4 |
63.5 |
30.9 |
-0.512 |
3.9% |
4 |
32.3 |
-0.623 |
-1.4% |
4 |
2.15 |
-0.623 |
-1.4% |
4 |
68.6% |
-0.098 |
-2.3% |
4 |
|
|
75% |
15 |
262.7 |
-0.081 |
67.5% |
10 |
74.9 |
42.2 |
-0.067 |
29.8% |
10 |
48.8 |
0.026 |
33.0% |
10 |
3.25 |
0.026 |
33.0% |
10 |
79.2% |
0.559 |
12.9% |
10 |
|
Perfect Forecasts
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
1 |
Shillelagh |
ISP |
0.067 |
1 |
TQ |
HYA |
0.067 |
1 |
WeatherT |
RDU |
0.067 |
4 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0.000 |
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
4 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0.000 |
4 |
ezwx |
|
0.000 |
4 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0.000 |
4 |
iralibov |
|
0.000 |
4 |
MarkHofmann |
|
0.000 |
4 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0.000 |
4 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
4 |
snocat918 |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
1 |
Mitchel Volk |
ABE PHL ACY EWR |
4 |
0.267 |
2 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
EWR BWI DCA |
3 |
0.200 |
3 |
iralibov |
IAD ORF |
2 |
0.133 |
3 |
TQ |
HYA MDT |
2 |
0.133 |
3 |
WeatherT |
SBY RDU |
2 |
0.133 |
6 |
Brad Yehl |
RIC |
1 |
0.067 |
6 |
donsutherland1 |
MDT |
1 |
0.067 |
6 |
Shillelagh |
ISP |
1 |
0.067 |
6 |
snocat918 |
JFK |
1 |
0.067 |
10 |
ezwx |
|
0 |
0.000 |
10 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0 |
0.000 |
10 |
MarkHofmann |
|
0 |
0.000 |
10 |
Roger Smith |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
1 |
MarkHofmann |
HYA ABE MDT PHL EWR BWI
ORF |
7 |
0.467 |
2 |
Roger Smith |
ACY IAD DCA SBY RIC |
5 |
0.333 |
3 |
iralibov |
HYA ISP JFK |
3 |
0.200 |
4 |
Mitchel Volk |
HYA RDU |
2 |
0.133 |
5 |
ezwx |
HYA |
1 |
0.067 |
5 |
Shillelagh |
HYA |
1 |
0.067 |
5 |
snocat918 |
HYA |
1 |
0.067 |
5 |
WeatherT |
HYA |
1 |
0.067 |
9 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0 |
0.000 |
9 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
9 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
9 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0 |
0.000 |
9 |
TQ |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ ORF
MAX forecast best @
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @ MDT…PHL…EWR…BWI…IAD…DCA…SBY…RIC
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BWI…IAD…DCA…SBY…RIC
Strong association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
HYA/STP estimated from vicinity reports carried in PNSBOX.
Many stations SLR contaminated by mixed precipitation.
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
H2O |
1 |
ACY |
5.5 |
9.8 |
0.56 |
2 |
IAD |
4.9 |
|
-
|
3 |
BWI |
3.8 |
|
-
|
3 |
DCA |
3.8 |
|
-
|
5 |
PHL |
3.4 |
10.0 |
0.34 |
6 |
RIC |
3.0 |
|
-
|
7 |
ORF |
2.3 |
|
-
|
8 |
HYA |
2.0 |
|
-
|
8 |
SBY |
2.0 |
13.3 |
0.15 |
10 |
ISP |
0.8 |
13.3 |
0.06 |
11 |
JFK |
0.6 |
15.0 |
0.04 |
12 |
RDU |
0.2 |
|
-
|
12 |
EWR |
0.2 |
20.0 |
0.01 |
14 |
MDT |
0.1 |
|
-
|
15 |
ABE |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
ALB |
-
|
|
-
|
|
BDL |
-
|
|
-
|
|
BDR |
-
|
|
-
|
|
BGM |
-
|
|
-
|
|
BGR |
-
|
|
-
|
|
BOS |
-
|
|
-
|
|
BTV |
-
|
|
-
|
|
CAR |
-
|
|
-
|
|
CON |
-
|
|
-
|
|
ORH |
-
|
|
-
|
|
PVD |
-
|
|
-
|
|
PWM |
-
|
|
-
|
|
TOT |
32.7 |
13.6 |
1.2 |
New Daily Records: none
15z 03-MAR-14
.