Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Snow Storm #6 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

32.7

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

15

50.9

-0.684

82.5%

1

49.3

16.60

-1.070

62.2%

1

22.7

-0.998

52.8%

1

1.51

-0.998

52.8%

1

66.1%

-0.250

-5.8%

11

Donald Rosenfeld

Mitchel Volk

Senior

15

80.3

-0.600

72.4%

2

55.3

22.65

-0.833

48.4%

2

28.5

-0.768

40.7%

2

1.90

-0.768

40.7%

2

74.7%

0.281

6.5%

7

Mitchel Volk

Shillelagh

Senior

15

84.5

-0.588

71.0%

3

57.6

24.90

-0.745

43.3%

3

29.6

-0.727

38.5%

3

1.97

-0.727

38.5%

3

79.2%

0.559

12.9%

4

Shillelagh

Brad Yehl

Journeyman

15

94.5

-0.560

67.5%

4

63.5

30.85

-0.512

29.8%

4

32.3

-0.623

33.0%

4

2.15

-0.623

33.0%

4

86.1%

0.990

22.8%

1

Brad Yehl

donsutherland1

Senior

15

109.7

-0.517

62.3%

5

65.6

32.95

-0.430

25.0%

5

33.6

-0.572

30.3%

5

2.24

-0.572

30.3%

5

84.4%

0.884

20.3%

2

donsutherland1

Herb@MAWS

Senior

15

125.0

-0.473

57.1%

6

69.1

36.40

-0.295

17.1%

8

37.3

-0.425

22.5%

6

2.49

-0.425

22.5%

6

79.0%

0.549

12.6%

5

Herb@MAWS

TQ

Senior

15

145.0

-0.416

50.2%

7

67.6

34.95

-0.351

20.4%

6

39.8

-0.329

17.4%

7

2.65

-0.329

17.4%

7

81.3%

0.692

15.9%

3

TQ

WeatherT

Senior

15

164.7

-0.360

43.4%

8

68.1

35.45

-0.332

19.3%

7

42.4

-0.223

11.8%

8

2.83

-0.223

11.8%

8

75.8%

0.350

8.1%

6

WeatherT

ezwx

Rookie

15

172.6

-0.337

40.7%

9

73.3

40.60

-0.130

7.6%

9

45.6

-0.100

5.3%

9

3.04

-0.100

5.3%

9

73.8%

0.226

5.2%

9

ezwx

snocat918

Intern

15

262.7

-0.081

9.8%

10

74.9

42.20

-0.067

3.9%

10

48.8

0.026

-1.4%

10

3.25

0.026

-1.4%

10

73.8%

0.230

5.3%

8

snocat918

iralibov

Senior

15

350.6

0.169

-20.4%

11

86.6

53.90

0.391

-22.7%

11

58.4

0.402

-21.3%

11

3.89

0.402

-21.3%

11

32.3%

-2.345

-54.0%

13

iralibov

Roger Smith

Senior

15

867.7

1.641

-198.0%

12

126.8

94.15

1.968

-114.4%

12

94.4

1.812

-96.0%

12

6.29

1.812

-96.0%

12

68.6%

-0.098

-2.3%

10

Roger Smith

MarkHofmann

Senior

15

1277.3

2.807

-338.6%

13

138.0

105.35

2.407

-139.9%

13

112.5

2.525

-133.8%

13

7.50

2.525

-133.8%

13

36.8%

-2.066

-47.6%

12

MarkHofmann

Forecast Parameters

195

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

Forecast Parameters

MIN

15

50.9

-0.684

-338.6%

1

49.3

16.6

-1.070

-139.9%

1

22.7

-0.998

-133.8%

1

1.51

-0.998

-133.8%

1

32.3%

-2.345

-54.0%

      1

MIN

MAX

15

1277.3

2.807

82.5%

13

138.0

105.4

2.407

62.2%

13

112.5

2.525

52.8%

13

7.50

2.525

52.8%

13

86.1%

0.990

22.8%

    13

MAX

AVG

15

291.2

0.000

0.0%

7

76.6

43.9

0.000

0.0%

7

48.1

0.000

0.0%

7

3.21

0.000

0.0%

7

70.1%

0.000

0.0%

      7

AVG

Median

15

145.0

-0.416

50.2%

7

68.1

35.5

-0.332

19.3%

7

39.8

-0.329

17.4%

7

2.65

-0.329

17.4%

7

74.7%

0.281

6.5%

      7

Median

Mode

15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

STD

0

351.3

1.000

120.7%

3.7

25.5

25.5

1.000

58.1%

3.7

25.5

1.000

53.0%

3.7

1.70

1.000

53.0%

3.7

16.1%

1.000

23.0%

   3.7

STD

25%

15

94.5

-0.560

9.8%

4

63.5

30.9

-0.512

3.9%

4

32.3

-0.623

-1.4%

4

2.15

-0.623

-1.4%

4

68.6%

-0.098

-2.3%

      4

 

75%

15

262.7

-0.081

67.5%

10

74.9

42.2

-0.067

29.8%

10

48.8

0.026

33.0%

10

3.25

0.026

33.0%

10

79.2%

0.559

12.9%

    10

 

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

Shillelagh

ISP

0.067

1

TQ

HYA

0.067

1

WeatherT

RDU

0.067

4

Brad Yehl

 

0.000

4

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0.000

4

donsutherland1

 

0.000

4

ezwx

 

0.000

4

Herb@MAWS

 

0.000

4

iralibov

 

0.000

4

MarkHofmann

 

0.000

4

Mitchel Volk

 

0.000

4

Roger Smith

 

0.000

4

snocat918

 

0.000

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

Mitchel Volk

ABE PHL ACY EWR

4

0.267

2

Donald Rosenfeld

EWR BWI DCA

3

0.200

3

iralibov

IAD ORF

2

0.133

3

TQ

HYA MDT

2

0.133

3

WeatherT

SBY RDU

2

0.133

6

Brad Yehl

RIC

1

0.067

6

donsutherland1

MDT

1

0.067

6

Shillelagh

ISP

1

0.067

6

snocat918

JFK

1

0.067

10

ezwx

 

0

0.000

10

Herb@MAWS

 

0

0.000

10

MarkHofmann

 

0

0.000

10

Roger Smith

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

MarkHofmann

HYA ABE MDT PHL EWR BWI ORF

7

0.467

2

Roger Smith

ACY IAD DCA SBY RIC

5

0.333

3

iralibov

HYA ISP JFK

3

0.200

4

Mitchel Volk

HYA RDU

2

0.133

5

ezwx

HYA

1

0.067

5

Shillelagh

HYA

1

0.067

5

snocat918

HYA

1

0.067

5

WeatherT

HYA

1

0.067

9

Brad Yehl

 

0

0.000

9

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0

0.000

9

donsutherland1

 

0

0.000

9

Herb@MAWS

 

0

0.000

9

TQ

 

0

0.000

 

Consensus forecast best @ ORF

MAX forecast best @

MAX forecast less than observed @

MIN forecasts best @ MDT…PHL…EWR…BWI…IAD…DCA…SBY…RIC

MIN forecasts more than observed @ BWI…IAD…DCA…SBY…RIC

 

Strong association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.

HYA/STP estimated from vicinity reports carried in PNSBOX.

 

Many stations SLR contaminated by mixed precipitation.

 

Rank

Station

 Snow

 SN:H2O

 H2O

        1

ACY

       5.5

         9.8

   0.56

        2

IAD

       4.9

 

        - 

        3

BWI

       3.8

 

        - 

        3

DCA

       3.8

 

        - 

        5

PHL

       3.4

       10.0

   0.34

        6

RIC

       3.0

 

        - 

        7

ORF

       2.3

 

        - 

        8

HYA

       2.0

 

        - 

        8

SBY

       2.0

       13.3

   0.15

      10

ISP

       0.8

       13.3

   0.06

      11

JFK

       0.6

       15.0

   0.04

      12

RDU

       0.2

 

        - 

      12

EWR

       0.2

       20.0

   0.01

      14

MDT

       0.1

 

        - 

      15

ABE

     0.05

 

        - 

 

ALB

        -  

 

        - 

 

BDL

        -  

 

        - 

 

BDR

        -  

 

        - 

 

BGM

        -  

 

        - 

 

BGR

        -  

 

        - 

 

BOS

        -  

 

        - 

 

BTV

        -  

 

        - 

 

CAR

        -  

 

        - 

 

CON

        -  

 

        - 

 

ORH

        -  

 

        - 

 

PVD

        -  

 

        - 

 

PWM

        -  

 

        - 

 

TOT

     32.7

       13.6

     1.2

 

New Daily Records: none

 

15z 03-MAR-14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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