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Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Snow Storm #5 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
218.5 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
WeatherT |
Senior |
27 |
359.8 |
-0.633 |
62.1% |
1 |
199.5 |
18.95 |
-0.780 |
73.6% |
2 |
75.7 |
-0.833 |
36.6% |
1 |
2.80 |
-0.833 |
36.6% |
1 |
50.2% |
1.618 |
96.3% |
2 |
WeatherT |
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
27 |
407.5 |
-0.582 |
57.0% |
2 |
155.8 |
62.65 |
-0.136 |
12.9% |
8 |
78.8 |
-0.774 |
34.0% |
2 |
2.92 |
-0.774 |
34.0% |
2 |
53.7% |
1.850 |
110.1% |
1 |
Brad Yehl |
|
snowman |
Senior |
27 |
479.4 |
-0.504 |
49.4% |
3 |
171.8 |
46.65 |
-0.372 |
35.1% |
6 |
93.4 |
-0.495 |
21.8% |
4 |
3.46 |
-0.495 |
21.8% |
4 |
34.2% |
0.566 |
33.7% |
3 |
snowman |
|
donsutherland1 |
Senior |
27 |
513.6 |
-0.468 |
45.8% |
4 |
173.5 |
44.95 |
-0.397 |
37.5% |
5 |
91.1 |
-0.539 |
23.7% |
3 |
3.37 |
-0.539 |
23.7% |
3 |
28.4% |
0.186 |
11.1% |
5 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Herb@MAWS |
Senior |
27 |
529.5 |
-0.451 |
44.2% |
5 |
162.6 |
55.90 |
-0.236 |
22.3% |
7 |
95.2 |
-0.460 |
20.2% |
5 |
3.53 |
-0.460 |
20.2% |
5 |
30.8% |
0.345 |
20.6% |
4 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
snocat918 |
Intern |
27 |
732.8 |
-0.232 |
22.7% |
6 |
200.6 |
17.90 |
-0.796 |
75.1% |
1 |
116.8 |
-0.049 |
2.1% |
7 |
4.33 |
-0.049 |
2.1% |
7 |
7.8% |
-1.169 |
-69.6% |
10 |
snocat918 |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
27 |
880.9 |
-0.072 |
7.1% |
7 |
198.0 |
20.50 |
-0.757 |
71.5% |
3 |
114.8 |
-0.087 |
3.8% |
6 |
4.25 |
-0.087 |
3.8% |
6 |
21.7% |
-0.258 |
-15.3% |
6 |
Roger Smith |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
27 |
886.8 |
-0.066 |
6.5% |
8 |
173.6 |
44.85 |
-0.399 |
37.6% |
4 |
122.0 |
0.051 |
-2.3% |
8 |
4.52 |
0.051 |
-2.3% |
8 |
13.8% |
-0.777 |
-46.2% |
9 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
TQ |
Senior |
27 |
910.9 |
-0.040 |
3.9% |
9 |
110.2 |
108.30 |
0.536 |
-50.6% |
10 |
124.9 |
0.106 |
-4.7% |
10 |
4.63 |
0.106 |
-4.7% |
10 |
17.7% |
-0.518 |
-30.8% |
8 |
TQ |
|
Shillelagh |
Senior |
27 |
913.5 |
-0.037 |
3.7% |
10 |
113.6 |
104.85 |
0.485 |
-45.8% |
9 |
124.1 |
0.091 |
-4.0% |
9 |
4.60 |
0.091 |
-4.0% |
9 |
19.0% |
-0.435 |
-25.9% |
7 |
Shillelagh |
|
MarkHofmann |
Senior |
27 |
3815.7 |
3.085 |
-302.4% |
11 |
484.0 |
265.55 |
2.852 |
-269.3% |
11 |
276.2 |
2.988 |
-131.4% |
11 |
10.23 |
2.988 |
-131.4% |
11 |
4.1% |
-1.410 |
-83.9% |
11 |
MarkHofmann |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
297 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
27 |
359.8 |
-0.633 |
-302.4% |
1 |
110.2 |
17.9 |
-0.796 |
-269.3% |
1 |
75.7 |
-0.833 |
-131.4% |
1 |
2.80 |
-0.833 |
-131.4% |
1 |
4.1% |
-1.410 |
-83.9% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
3815.7 |
3.085 |
62.1% |
11 |
484.0 |
265.6 |
2.852 |
75.1% |
11 |
276.2 |
2.988 |
36.6% |
11 |
10.23 |
2.988 |
36.6% |
11 |
53.7% |
1.850 |
110.1% |
11 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
27 |
948.2 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
194.8 |
71.9 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
119.3 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
4.42 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
25.6% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
27 |
732.8 |
-0.232 |
22.7% |
6 |
173.5 |
46.7 |
-0.372 |
35.1% |
6 |
114.8 |
-0.087 |
3.8% |
6 |
4.25 |
-0.087 |
3.8% |
6 |
21.7% |
-0.258 |
-15.3% |
6 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
0 |
929.4 |
1.000 |
98.0% |
3.2 |
96.0 |
67.9 |
1.000 |
94.4% |
3.2 |
52.5 |
1.000 |
44.0% |
3.2 |
1.94 |
1.000 |
44.0% |
3.2 |
15.2% |
1.000 |
59.5% |
3.2 |
STD |
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
HYA |
0.037 |
|
1 |
donsutherland1 |
RIC |
0.037 |
|
1 |
snocat918 |
ACY |
0.037 |
|
1 |
TQ |
HYA |
0.037 |
|
5 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
MarkHofmann |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
Shillelagh |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
snowman |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
WeatherT |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Roger Smith |
BGR CON BTV BOS BDR ISP
EWR SBY ORF |
9 |
0.333 |
|
2 |
WeatherT |
BGR CON BOS ORH BWI IAD
RDU |
7 |
0.259 |
|
3 |
donsutherland1 |
BDL PHL DCA RIC |
4 |
0.148 |
|
4 |
Shillelagh |
CON PVD BGM |
3 |
0.111 |
|
4 |
snowman |
PWM CON MDT |
3 |
0.111 |
|
6 |
Brad Yehl |
CAR SBY |
2 |
0.074 |
|
6 |
Herb@MAWS |
JFK MDT |
2 |
0.074 |
|
6 |
MarkHofmann |
ALB ABE |
2 |
0.074 |
|
9 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
HYA |
1 |
0.037 |
|
9 |
snocat918 |
ACY |
1 |
0.037 |
|
9 |
TQ |
HYA |
1 |
0.037 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
MarkHofmann |
CAR BGR PWM CON BTV BOS
HYA ORH PVD BDR BGM JFK MDT PHL ACY EWR DCA SBY ORF |
19 |
0.704 |
|
2 |
Roger Smith |
BDL BWI IAD |
3 |
0.111 |
|
3 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
ISP ABE |
2 |
0.074 |
|
4 |
Brad Yehl |
RDU |
1 |
0.037 |
|
4 |
TQ |
ALB |
1 |
0.037 |
|
4 |
WeatherT |
RIC |
1 |
0.037 |
|
7 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
7 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
7 |
Shillelagh |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
7 |
snocat918 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
7 |
snowman |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ CAR…PWM…CON…ORH…BGM…JFK…MDT…ACY…DCA…RIC…ORF…RDU
MAX forecast best @ ALB…ABE…IAD
MAX forecast less than observed @ none
MIN forecasts best @ BGR…BOS…PVD…SBY
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BGR
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
Daily snowfall for SBY MIA from all bulletins, per usual. METARs carried -SN for about four hours with visibility no lower than 1 3/4SM. P/0000 group during the period summed to 0.02”, which earned this station an estimated 0.2" snowfall using a generous 10:1 SLR.
Mixed precipitation contaminated many stations' SLR.
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
H2O |
|
1 |
ABE |
19.2 |
|
1.31 |
|
2 |
ALB |
14.4 |
9.1 |
1.59 |
|
3 |
IAD |
13.3 |
|
1.35 |
|
4 |
ORH |
13.1 |
|
1.21 |
|
5 |
BDR |
12.2 |
|
1.40 |
|
6 |
EWR |
11.9 |
|
1.57 |
|
7 |
PHL |
11.5 |
|
1.51 |
|
7 |
BWI |
11.5 |
|
1.86 |
|
9 |
CAR |
9.9 |
16.5 |
0.60 |
|
9 |
CON |
9.9 |
|
1.39 |
|
11 |
MDT |
9.5 |
|
1.08 |
|
12 |
PWM |
9.4 |
|
1.63 |
|
13 |
BTV |
8.9 |
22.3 |
0.40 |
|
14 |
ISP |
8.7 |
|
1.24 |
|
15 |
BDL |
8.6 |
|
2.21 |
|
16 |
DCA |
7.0 |
|
1.70 |
|
17 |
JFK |
6.9 |
|
1.40 |
|
18 |
BGR |
6.5 |
|
0.54 |
|
19 |
BGM |
6.1 |
9.7 |
0.63 |
|
20 |
RIC |
5.8 |
|
1.47 |
|
21 |
RDU |
3.7 |
|
1.03 |
|
22 |
BOS |
3.3 |
|
1.31 |
|
23 |
ACY |
3.0 |
|
2.03 |
|
24 |
PVD |
2.2 |
|
1.59 |
|
25 |
ORF |
1.7 |
|
1.26 |
|
26 |
SBY |
0.2 |
|
0.76 |
|
27 |
HYA |
0.05 |
|
-
|
|
|
TOT |
218.3 |
14.4 |
34.1 |
New Daily Records:
ABE - 17.8" (3.4"; 1993)
IAD - 11.7" (3"; 1992)
ORH - 10.5" (9"; 1897)
BDR - 9.5" (4.2"; 1950)
EWR - 9.4" (3.3"; 1950)
ISP - 8.1" (0.7"; 2008)
JFK - 5.5" (3"; 1950)
VT 00z 14-FEB-14