Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Snow Storm #4 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
113.7 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
donsutherland1 |
Senior |
19 |
69.9 |
-0.825 |
58.1% |
1 |
106.6 |
7.10 |
-0.534 |
52.1% |
4 |
29.4 |
-0.981 |
33.0% |
2 |
1.55 |
-0.747 |
26.0% |
4 |
88.0% |
0.948 |
16.7% |
1 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
19 |
73.7 |
-0.793 |
55.8% |
2 |
101.3 |
12.40 |
-0.167 |
16.4% |
7 |
28.5 |
-1.042 |
35.0% |
1 |
1.50 |
-0.813 |
28.3% |
2 |
87.8% |
0.932 |
16.4% |
2 |
Brad Yehl |
|
TQ |
Senior |
22 |
78.3 |
-0.754 |
53.1% |
3 |
121.2 |
7.45 |
-0.509 |
49.7% |
5 |
33.7 |
-0.693 |
23.3% |
3 |
1.53 |
-0.772 |
26.8% |
3 |
86.7% |
0.850 |
14.9% |
3 |
TQ |
|
Herb@MAWS |
Senior |
21 |
93.5 |
-0.624 |
44.0% |
4 |
114.4 |
0.70 |
-0.976 |
95.3% |
1 |
38.5 |
-0.364 |
12.3% |
6 |
1.83 |
-0.354 |
12.3% |
7 |
83.3% |
0.598 |
10.5% |
4 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
24 |
102.4 |
-0.549 |
38.7% |
5 |
105.0 |
8.70 |
-0.423 |
41.3% |
6 |
35.3 |
-0.581 |
19.5% |
4 |
1.47 |
-0.853 |
29.7% |
1 |
83.0% |
0.575 |
10.1% |
5 |
Roger Smith |
|
iralibov |
Senior |
22 |
118.0 |
-0.416 |
29.3% |
6 |
129.0 |
15.25 |
0.030 |
-2.9% |
9 |
39.3 |
-0.313 |
10.5% |
7 |
1.78 |
-0.422 |
14.7% |
6 |
82.5% |
0.531 |
9.3% |
6 |
iralibov |
|
flame_boy |
Rookie |
22 |
121.7 |
-0.385 |
27.1% |
7 |
134.3 |
20.60 |
0.399 |
-39.0% |
11 |
40.6 |
-0.222 |
7.5% |
8 |
1.85 |
-0.337 |
11.7% |
8 |
80.9% |
0.417 |
7.3% |
7 |
flame_boy |
|
Shillelagh |
Senior |
22 |
138.0 |
-0.246 |
17.3% |
8 |
100.4 |
13.30 |
-0.105 |
10.3% |
8 |
36.4 |
-0.507 |
17.0% |
5 |
1.65 |
-0.600 |
20.9% |
5 |
76.6% |
0.088 |
1.5% |
8 |
Shillelagh |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
20 |
170.7 |
0.032 |
-2.3% |
10 |
114.6 |
0.90 |
-0.962 |
93.9% |
2 |
45.0 |
0.076 |
-2.6% |
10 |
2.25 |
0.219 |
-7.6% |
10 |
75.0% |
-0.029 |
-0.5% |
9 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
bruced39 |
Senior |
20 |
170.7 |
0.031 |
-2.2% |
9 |
107.5 |
6.20 |
-0.596 |
58.2% |
3 |
42.7 |
-0.080 |
2.7% |
9 |
2.13 |
0.061 |
-2.1% |
9 |
69.9% |
-0.416 |
-7.3% |
10 |
bruced39 |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
22 |
187.3 |
0.173 |
-12.2% |
11 |
130.8 |
17.10 |
0.157 |
-15.4% |
10 |
50.6 |
0.455 |
-15.3% |
11 |
2.30 |
0.288 |
-10.0% |
11 |
68.4% |
-0.530 |
-9.3% |
11 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
snowman |
Senior |
20 |
362.0 |
1.658 |
-116.8% |
12 |
90.0 |
23.70 |
0.613 |
-59.9% |
12 |
69.1 |
1.709 |
-57.5% |
12 |
3.45 |
1.876 |
-65.2% |
12 |
39.6% |
-2.706 |
-47.6% |
13 |
snowman |
|
MarkHofmann |
Senior |
21 |
484.1 |
2.696 |
-190.0% |
13 |
173.0 |
59.30 |
3.073 |
-300.1% |
13 |
81.4 |
2.542 |
-85.5% |
13 |
3.88 |
2.455 |
-85.4% |
13 |
58.8% |
-1.258 |
-22.1% |
12 |
MarkHofmann |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
274 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
19 |
69.9 |
-0.825 |
-190.0% |
1 |
90.0 |
0.7 |
-0.976 |
-300.1% |
1 |
28.5 |
-1.042 |
-85.5% |
1 |
1.47 |
-0.853 |
-85.4% |
1 |
39.6% |
-2.706 |
-47.6% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
24 |
484.1 |
2.696 |
58.1% |
13 |
173.0 |
59.3 |
3.073 |
95.3% |
13 |
81.4 |
2.542 |
35.0% |
13 |
3.88 |
2.455 |
29.7% |
13 |
88.0% |
0.948 |
16.7% |
13 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
21 |
167.0 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
117.5 |
14.8 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
43.9 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
2.09 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
75.4% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
21 |
121.7 |
-0.385 |
27.1% |
7 |
114.4 |
12.4 |
-0.167 |
16.4% |
7 |
39.3 |
-0.313 |
10.5% |
7 |
1.83 |
-0.354 |
12.3% |
7 |
80.9% |
0.417 |
7.3% |
7 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
117.6 |
1.000 |
70.5% |
3.7 |
20.4 |
14.5 |
1.000 |
97.6% |
3.7 |
14.8 |
1.000 |
33.6% |
3.7 |
0.73 |
1.000 |
34.8% |
3.7 |
13.3% |
1.000 |
17.6% |
3.7 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
20 |
93.5 |
-0.624 |
-2.3% |
4 |
105.0 |
7.1 |
-0.534 |
-15.4% |
4 |
35.3 |
-0.581 |
-2.6% |
4 |
1.55 |
-0.747 |
-7.6% |
4 |
69.9% |
-0.416 |
-7.3% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
22 |
170.7 |
0.032 |
44.0% |
10 |
129.0 |
17.1 |
0.157 |
52.1% |
10 |
45.0 |
0.076 |
19.5% |
10 |
2.25 |
0.219 |
26.0% |
10 |
83.3% |
0.598 |
10.5% |
10 |
|
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
donsutherland1 |
PVD |
0.053 |
|
2 |
MarkHofmann |
PWM |
0.048 |
|
3 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CAR |
0.045 |
|
3 |
TQ |
IAD |
0.045 |
|
5 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
bruced39 |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
flame_boy |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
iralibov |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
Shillelagh |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
snowman |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
bruced39 |
CON BDR BDL ISP JFK |
5 |
0.250 |
|
2 |
donsutherland1 |
PVD ALB ISP JFK |
4 |
0.211 |
|
3 |
Roger Smith |
BGR ISP JFK ABE |
4 |
0.167 |
|
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CAR BDR BDL |
3 |
0.136 |
|
4 |
Shillelagh |
BTV HYA JFK |
3 |
0.136 |
|
6 |
MarkHofmann |
PWM BOS |
2 |
0.095 |
|
7 |
iralibov |
ORH BGM |
2 |
0.091 |
|
7 |
TQ |
ABE IAD |
2 |
0.091 |
|
9 |
Brad Yehl |
MDT |
1 |
0.053 |
|
10 |
Mitchel Volk |
BOS |
1 |
0.050 |
|
11 |
Herb@MAWS |
BDL |
1 |
0.048 |
|
12 |
flame_boy |
EWR |
1 |
0.045 |
|
13 |
snowman |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
snowman |
CAR BOS ORH BDL ALB BGM
EWR |
7 |
0.350 |
|
2 |
MarkHofmann |
BGR CON HYA BDR ISP JFK
ACY |
7 |
0.333 |
|
3 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BTV PVD ISP ABE BWI |
5 |
0.227 |
|
4 |
flame_boy |
PHL IAD DCA |
3 |
0.136 |
|
5 |
bruced39 |
ABE MDT |
2 |
0.100 |
|
6 |
iralibov |
PWM |
1 |
0.045 |
|
6 |
Shillelagh |
BOS |
1 |
0.045 |
|
8 |
Roger Smith |
SBY |
1 |
0.042 |
|
9 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
TQ |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ BGR…PWM…ALB
MAX forecast best @ BOS…BGM…EWR
MAX forecast less than observed @ BGM…EWR
MIN forecasts best @ CAR…HYA…PVD…MDT
MIN forecasts more than observed @ HYA
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
BDL SLR contaminated by FZRA
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
BGM |
13.2 |
10.6 |
|
2 |
ORH |
12.2 |
10.9 |
|
3 |
BOS |
10.7 |
9.6 |
|
4 |
ALB |
10.4 |
11.2 |
|
5 |
BDL |
10.2 |
8.0 |
|
6 |
BTV |
9.3 |
20.7 |
|
7 |
PWM |
9.0 |
12.7 |
|
8 |
CON |
7.8 |
10.4 |
|
9 |
BDR |
7.5 |
|
|
10 |
BGR |
6.7 |
30.5 |
|
11 |
EWR |
4.6 |
|
|
12 |
PVD |
4.5 |
|
|
13 |
ABE |
2.4 |
|
|
14 |
JFK |
2.2 |
|
|
15 |
ISP |
1.8 |
|
|
16 |
MDT |
0.6 |
|
|
17 |
HYA |
0.5 |
|
|
18 |
CAR |
0.05 |
|
|
18 |
IAD |
0.05 |
|
|
|
PHL |
-
|
|
|
|
ACY |
-
|
|
|
|
BWI |
-
|
|
|
|
DCA |
-
|
|
|
|
SBY |
-
|
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
113.7 |
13.8 |
New Daily Records:
WED…05-FEB-14
|
BOS - 13.2"
(3"; 1976) |
|
BTV - 9.3"
(7.9"; 1968) |