Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts’ – Snow Storm #3 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
109.9 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
27 |
140.5 |
-1.171 |
54.2% |
1 |
140.9 |
31.00 |
-0.472 |
28.1% |
5 |
48.5 |
-1.132 |
30.5% |
1 |
1.80 |
-1.197 |
31.4% |
1 |
74.0% |
1.769 |
45.8% |
1 |
Brad Yehl |
|
donsutherland1 |
Senior |
27 |
164.2 |
-1.004 |
46.4% |
2 |
143.8 |
33.95 |
-0.358 |
21.3% |
7 |
52.6 |
-0.911 |
24.5% |
3 |
1.95 |
-0.974 |
25.6% |
3 |
68.6% |
1.356 |
35.1% |
2 |
donsutherland1 |
|
emoran |
Senior |
26 |
170.9 |
-0.957 |
44.3% |
3 |
114.2 |
4.30 |
-1.512 |
90.0% |
1 |
49.0 |
-1.106 |
29.8% |
2 |
1.88 |
-1.069 |
28.1% |
2 |
57.9% |
0.542 |
14.0% |
5 |
emoran |
|
Herb@MAWS |
Senior |
26 |
191.0 |
-0.816 |
37.7% |
4 |
135.5 |
25.60 |
-0.683 |
40.6% |
4 |
53.7 |
-0.856 |
23.0% |
4 |
2.07 |
-0.806 |
21.2% |
4 |
60.3% |
0.725 |
18.8% |
3 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
BTRWx |
Rookie |
27 |
213.5 |
-0.657 |
30.4% |
5 |
145.7 |
35.85 |
-0.284 |
16.9% |
8 |
59.9 |
-0.528 |
14.2% |
6 |
2.22 |
-0.586 |
15.4% |
6 |
57.8% |
0.538 |
13.9% |
6 |
BTRWx |
|
WeatherT |
Senior |
27 |
218.5 |
-0.621 |
28.7% |
6 |
104.9 |
4.95 |
-1.486 |
88.5% |
2 |
60.5 |
-0.496 |
13.4% |
7 |
2.24 |
-0.553 |
14.5% |
7 |
45.0% |
-0.441 |
-11.4% |
10 |
WeatherT |
|
shillelagh |
Senior |
25 |
224.2 |
-0.581 |
26.9% |
7 |
150.1 |
40.20 |
-0.114 |
6.8% |
9 |
54.9 |
-0.792 |
21.3% |
5 |
2.20 |
-0.616 |
16.2% |
5 |
59.8% |
0.686 |
17.8% |
4 |
shillelagh |
|
TQ |
Senior |
27 |
242.7 |
-0.450 |
20.8% |
8 |
141.1 |
31.20 |
-0.465 |
27.7% |
6 |
62.8 |
-0.371 |
10.0% |
8 |
2.33 |
-0.427 |
11.2% |
8 |
46.7% |
-0.306 |
-7.9% |
9 |
TQ |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
27 |
257.8 |
-0.344 |
15.9% |
9 |
154.8 |
44.90 |
0.069 |
-4.1% |
10 |
67.7 |
-0.110 |
3.0% |
10 |
2.51 |
-0.163 |
4.3% |
9 |
55.8% |
0.381 |
9.8% |
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
MarkHofmann |
Senior |
26 |
338.5 |
0.225 |
-10.4% |
10 |
91.0 |
18.84 |
-0.946 |
56.3% |
3 |
65.6 |
-0.220 |
5.9% |
9 |
2.52 |
-0.138 |
3.6% |
10 |
23.2% |
-2.101 |
-54.4% |
15 |
MarkHofmann |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
27 |
396.4 |
0.634 |
-29.3% |
11 |
186.0 |
76.15 |
1.285 |
-76.5% |
14 |
88.2 |
0.979 |
-26.3% |
12 |
3.26 |
0.939 |
-24.6% |
12 |
55.0% |
0.320 |
8.3% |
8 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
snocat918 |
Intern |
27 |
408.9 |
0.722 |
-33.4% |
12 |
174.3 |
64.45 |
0.830 |
-49.4% |
11 |
87.1 |
0.920 |
-24.8% |
11 |
3.22 |
0.879 |
-23.1% |
11 |
42.8% |
-0.603 |
-15.6% |
12 |
snocat918 |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
26 |
510.9 |
1.442 |
-66.7% |
13 |
180.1 |
70.25 |
1.055 |
-62.9% |
12 |
90.2 |
1.085 |
-29.2% |
13 |
3.47 |
1.233 |
-32.4% |
13 |
45.0% |
-0.441 |
-11.4% |
11 |
Roger Smith |
|
iralibov |
Senior |
27 |
528.7 |
1.567 |
-72.4% |
14 |
182.9 |
73.05 |
1.164 |
-69.3% |
13 |
95.3 |
1.357 |
-36.5% |
14 |
3.53 |
1.321 |
-34.7% |
14 |
35.5% |
-1.162 |
-30.1% |
13 |
iralibov |
|
quagmireweathercentral |
Intern |
27 |
591.9 |
2.013 |
-93.1% |
15 |
202.2 |
92.35 |
1.916 |
-114.1% |
15 |
110.8 |
2.182 |
-58.7% |
15 |
4.10 |
2.156 |
-56.6% |
15 |
34.2% |
-1.263 |
-32.7% |
14 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
399 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
25 |
140.5 |
-1.171 |
-93.1% |
1 |
91.0 |
4.3 |
-1.512 |
-114.1% |
1 |
48.5 |
-1.132 |
-58.7% |
1 |
1.80 |
-1.197 |
-56.6% |
1 |
23.2% |
-2.101 |
-54.4% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
591.9 |
2.013 |
54.2% |
15 |
202.2 |
92.4 |
1.916 |
90.0% |
15 |
110.8 |
2.182 |
30.5% |
15 |
4.10 |
2.156 |
31.4% |
15 |
74.0% |
1.769 |
45.8% |
15 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
27 |
306.6 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
8 |
149.8 |
43.1 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
8 |
69.8 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
8 |
2.62 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
8 |
50.8% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
8 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
27 |
242.7 |
-0.450 |
20.8% |
8 |
145.7 |
35.9 |
-0.284 |
16.9% |
8 |
62.8 |
-0.371 |
10.0% |
8 |
2.33 |
-0.427 |
11.2% |
8 |
55.0% |
0.320 |
8.3% |
8 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
141.7 |
1.000 |
46.2% |
4.3 |
30.4 |
25.7 |
1.000 |
59.6% |
4.3 |
18.8 |
1.000 |
26.9% |
4.3 |
0.69 |
1.000 |
26.2% |
4.3 |
13.1% |
1.000 |
25.9% |
4.3 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
26 |
202.2 |
-0.736 |
-31.3% |
5 |
138.2 |
28.3 |
-0.577 |
-56.1% |
5 |
54.3 |
-0.824 |
-25.6% |
5 |
2.13 |
-0.711 |
-23.9% |
5 |
43.9% |
-0.522 |
-13.5% |
5 |
|
|
|
75% |
27 |
402.7 |
0.678 |
34.0% |
12 |
177.2 |
67.4 |
0.943 |
34.4% |
12 |
87.6 |
0.949 |
22.2% |
12 |
3.24 |
0.909 |
18.7% |
12 |
58.8% |
0.614 |
15.9% |
12 |
|
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
shillelagh |
EWR SBY RIC |
0.120 |
|
2 |
Mitchel Volk |
EWR ORF RDU |
0.111 |
|
3 |
donsutherland1 |
BGM RDU |
0.074 |
|
3 |
TQ |
HYA RDU |
0.074 |
|
5 |
emoran |
SBY |
0.038 |
|
5 |
MarkHofmann |
RIC |
0.038 |
|
7 |
Brad Yehl |
MDT |
0.037 |
|
7 |
BTRWx |
BGM |
0.037 |
|
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
ORF |
0.037 |
|
7 |
quagmireweathercentral |
IAD |
0.037 |
|
7 |
snocat918 |
ORF |
0.037 |
|
7 |
WeatherT |
BTV |
0.037 |
|
13 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0.000 |
|
13 |
iralibov |
|
0.000 |
|
13 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
MarkHofmann |
CON BDL DCA RIC |
4 |
0.154 |
|
1 |
Roger Smith |
BGR PVD PHL DCA |
4 |
0.154 |
|
3 |
donsutherland1 |
BGM ISP ABE RDU |
4 |
0.148 |
|
3 |
TQ |
HYA JFK ACY RDU |
4 |
0.148 |
|
5 |
shillelagh |
EWR SBY RIC |
3 |
0.120 |
|
6 |
emoran |
CAR ISP SBY |
3 |
0.115 |
|
6 |
Herb@MAWS |
BOS ISP DCA |
3 |
0.115 |
|
8 |
Brad Yehl |
PWM BDR MDT |
3 |
0.111 |
|
8 |
WeatherT |
BTV ORH BWI |
3 |
0.111 |
|
8 |
Mitchel Volk |
EWR ORF RDU |
3 |
0.111 |
|
11 |
BTRWx |
BGM |
1 |
0.037 |
|
11 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
ORF |
1 |
0.037 |
|
11 |
snocat918 |
ORF |
1 |
0.037 |
|
11 |
quagmireweathercentral |
IAD |
1 |
0.037 |
|
15 |
iralibov |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
quagmireweathercentral |
CAR PWM BTV ALB BGM DCA
SBY RIC RDU |
9 |
0.333 |
|
2 |
iralibov |
BOS HYA PVD BDL ACY |
5 |
0.185 |
|
3 |
Roger Smith |
CON ORH BWI RDU |
4 |
0.154 |
|
4 |
MarkHofmann |
BDR ISP IAD |
3 |
0.115 |
|
5 |
WeatherT |
ABE PHL EWR |
3 |
0.111 |
|
6 |
emoran |
IAD ORF |
2 |
0.077 |
|
7 |
Mitchel Volk |
BGR MDT |
2 |
0.074 |
|
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
RDU |
1 |
0.037 |
|
8 |
snocat918 |
JFK |
1 |
0.037 |
|
10 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
10 |
BTRWx |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
10 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
10 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
10 |
shillelagh |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
10 |
TQ |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ BDR…ISP…ABE
MAX forecast best @ PHL…EWR…IAD…ORF
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @ BOS…ORH…PVD…MDT…ACY…BWI…DCA…SBY
MIN forecasts more than observed @ BOS…ORH…ACY…BWI
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
SBY 3" STP reported in PNSAKQ.
Some questions about BWI/s 5.1” STP and 12 SN:H2O given vicinity reports ~7” and vicinity SN:H2Os [14 (PHL)…15 (RIC)…and 21 (DCA)]
New Daily Records:
21-JAN-14
PHL - 13.5" (3.4"; 1917)
EWR - 10" (4.5"; 2011)
ISP - 9.2" (5"; 2000)
IAD - 8.5" (3.2"; 2001)
JFK - 6.8" (5.8"; 2001)
BWI - 5.1" (2"; 1982)
DCA - 3.8" (3.5"; 1982)
ACY - 2.2" (1.8"; 1982)
RIC - 2" (1.8"; 1918)
ORF - 2" (1.4"; 1994)
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
PHL |
13.5 |
14.8 |
|
2 |
ISP |
11.2 |
20.0 |
|
3 |
EWR |
10.0 |
25.0 |
|
4 |
HYA |
8.5 |
|
|
4 |
IAD |
8.5 |
42.5 |
|
6 |
JFK |
7.1 |
19.7 |
|
7 |
ABE |
5.7 |
16.8 |
|
7 |
BDR |
6.7 |
30.5 |
|
7 |
PVD |
5.7 |
31.7 |
|
10 |
BWI |
5.1 |
12.1 |
|
11 |
MDT |
4.6 |
13.5 |
|
12 |
BOS |
4.2 |
30.0 |
|
13 |
ACY |
4.0 |
19.0 |
|
14 |
DCA |
3.8 |
21.1 |
|
15 |
ORF |
3.0 |
25.0 |
|
15 |
SBY |
3.0 |
|
|
17 |
RIC |
2.0 |
15.4 |
|
18 |
ORH |
1.8 |
20.0 |
|
19 |
BDL |
0.6 |
15.0 |
|
20 |
RDU |
0.5 |
5.0 |
|
21 |
BGM |
0.1 |
|
|
22 |
BGR |
0.05 |
|
|
22 |
BTV |
0.05 |
|
|
22 |
CAR |
0.05 |
|
|
22 |
CON |
0.05 |
|
|
22 |
PWM |
0.05 |
|
|
|
ALB |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT/AVG |
110 |
21 |
METAR KBWI 212119Z 02009G16KT 1/8SM R10/4000V4500FT +SN FZFG VV014 M06/M08 A2980
