Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts – Snow Storm #2 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
171.6 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
donsutherland1 |
Senior |
24 |
99.9 |
-1.269 |
60.8% |
1 |
155.5 |
16.10 |
-0.349 |
32.0% |
7 |
43.1 |
-1.292 |
31.1% |
1 |
1.80 |
-1.191 |
27.6% |
1 |
81.8% |
0.980 |
29.1% |
2 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Herb@MAWS |
Senior |
24 |
130.2 |
-1.021 |
48.9% |
2 |
151.0 |
20.60 |
-0.142 |
13.0% |
9 |
47.0 |
-1.033 |
24.8% |
2 |
1.96 |
-0.909 |
21.0% |
2 |
77.4% |
0.750 |
22.3% |
3 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
weatherT |
Senior |
25 |
173.4 |
-0.667 |
32.0% |
3 |
160.9 |
10.75 |
-0.596 |
54.6% |
6 |
53.2 |
-0.623 |
15.0% |
4 |
2.13 |
-0.617 |
14.3% |
4 |
72.8% |
0.502 |
14.9% |
5 |
weatherT |
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
25 |
186.2 |
-0.562 |
26.9% |
4 |
175.1 |
3.45 |
-0.932 |
85.4% |
2 |
56.8 |
-0.377 |
9.1% |
5 |
2.27 |
-0.359 |
8.3% |
5 |
73.9% |
0.561 |
16.7% |
4 |
Brad Yehl |
|
snocat918 |
Intern |
24 |
195.6 |
-0.485 |
23.2% |
5 |
170.6 |
1.05 |
-1.043 |
95.6% |
1 |
58.4 |
-0.277 |
6.7% |
6 |
2.43 |
-0.085 |
2.0% |
8 |
68.2% |
0.258 |
7.6% |
7 |
snocat918 |
|
Wxoutlooks@aol |
Intern |
25 |
217.3 |
-0.307 |
14.7% |
6 |
191.0 |
19.40 |
-0.197 |
18.1% |
8 |
52.6 |
-0.660 |
15.9% |
3 |
2.10 |
-0.655 |
15.2% |
3 |
63.8% |
0.027 |
0.8% |
9 |
Wxoutlooks@aol |
|
Shillelagh |
Senior |
24 |
236.6 |
-0.149 |
7.2% |
7 |
163.6 |
8.00 |
-0.723 |
66.2% |
3 |
60.8 |
-0.114 |
2.7% |
7 |
2.53 |
0.092 |
-2.1% |
9 |
68.0% |
0.251 |
7.4% |
8 |
Shillelagh |
|
TQ |
Senior |
25 |
241.8 |
-0.106 |
5.1% |
8 |
140.3 |
31.30 |
0.351 |
-32.2% |
10 |
65.2 |
0.179 |
-4.3% |
10 |
2.61 |
0.222 |
-5.1% |
10 |
59.6% |
-0.200 |
-6.0% |
11 |
TQ |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
27 |
248.9 |
-0.049 |
2.3% |
9 |
180.0 |
8.40 |
-0.704 |
64.5% |
4 |
64.7 |
0.145 |
-3.5% |
9 |
2.40 |
-0.146 |
3.4% |
6 |
61.5% |
-0.095 |
-2.8% |
10 |
Roger Smith |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
26 |
273.4 |
0.152 |
-7.3% |
10 |
108.7 |
62.95 |
1.809 |
-165.8% |
12 |
68.1 |
0.368 |
-8.9% |
11 |
2.62 |
0.238 |
-5.5% |
11 |
82.1% |
0.997 |
29.6% |
1 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
iralibov |
Senior |
26 |
331.9 |
0.631 |
-30.2% |
11 |
218.8 |
47.15 |
1.081 |
-99.1% |
11 |
62.9 |
0.022 |
-0.5% |
8 |
2.42 |
-0.110 |
2.5% |
7 |
69.4% |
0.321 |
9.5% |
6 |
iralibov |
|
snowman |
Senior |
27 |
384.4 |
1.061 |
-50.8% |
12 |
180.8 |
9.15 |
-0.670 |
61.4% |
5 |
73.9 |
0.754 |
-18.1% |
12 |
2.74 |
0.444 |
-10.3% |
12 |
27.9% |
-1.885 |
-56.0% |
12 |
snowman |
|
MarkHofmann |
Senior |
25 |
593.2 |
2.771 |
-132.8% |
13 |
102.0 |
69.60 |
2.115 |
-193.9% |
13 |
106.2 |
2.907 |
-69.9% |
13 |
4.25 |
3.076 |
-71.3% |
13 |
17.0% |
-2.466 |
-73.2% |
13 |
MarkHofmann |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
327 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
24 |
99.9 |
-1.269 |
-132.8% |
1 |
102.0 |
1.1 |
-1.043 |
-193.9% |
1 |
43.1 |
-1.292 |
-69.9% |
1 |
1.80 |
-1.191 |
-71.3% |
1 |
17.0% |
-2.466 |
-73.2% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
593.2 |
2.771 |
60.8% |
13 |
218.8 |
69.6 |
2.115 |
95.6% |
13 |
106.2 |
2.907 |
31.1% |
13 |
4.25 |
3.076 |
27.6% |
13 |
82.1% |
0.997 |
29.6% |
13 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
25 |
254.8 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
161.4 |
23.7 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
62.5 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
2.48 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
63.3% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
25 |
236.6 |
-0.149 |
7.2% |
7 |
163.6 |
16.1 |
-0.349 |
32.0% |
7 |
60.8 |
-0.114 |
2.7% |
7 |
2.42 |
-0.110 |
2.5% |
7 |
68.2% |
0.258 |
7.6% |
7 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
122.1 |
1.000 |
47.9% |
3.7 |
30.5 |
21.7 |
1.000 |
91.6% |
3.7 |
15.0 |
1.000 |
24.0% |
3.7 |
0.57 |
1.000 |
23.2% |
3.7 |
18.8% |
1.000 |
29.7% |
3.7 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
24 |
186.2 |
-0.562 |
-7.3% |
4 |
151.0 |
8.4 |
-0.704 |
-32.2% |
4 |
53.2 |
-0.623 |
-4.3% |
4 |
2.13 |
-0.617 |
-5.1% |
4 |
61.5% |
-0.095 |
-2.8% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
26 |
273.4 |
0.152 |
26.9% |
10 |
180.0 |
31.3 |
0.351 |
64.5% |
10 |
65.2 |
0.179 |
15.0% |
10 |
2.61 |
0.222 |
14.3% |
10 |
73.9% |
0.561 |
16.7% |
10 |
|
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
iralibov |
BTV IAD RIC |
0.115 |
|
2 |
snocat918 |
BTV |
0.042 |
|
3 |
Roger Smith |
MDT |
0.037 |
|
4 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
MarkHofmann |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Shillelagh |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
snowman |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
TQ |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
weatherT |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Wxoutlooks@aol |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Wxoutlooks@aol |
PWM CON BGM PHL SBY |
5 |
0.200 |
|
2 |
iralibov |
BTV ACY EWR IAD RIC |
5 |
0.192 |
|
3 |
snocat918 |
BTV JFK ABE |
3 |
0.125 |
|
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BGR PVD DCA |
3 |
0.115 |
|
5 |
snowman |
BDL BWI SBY |
3 |
0.111 |
|
6 |
Herb@MAWS |
PVD ALB |
2 |
0.083 |
|
7 |
weatherT |
BOS ORH |
2 |
0.080 |
|
8 |
donsutherland1 |
HYA |
1 |
0.042 |
|
8 |
Shillelagh |
ISP |
1 |
0.042 |
|
10 |
TQ |
BDR |
1 |
0.040 |
|
11 |
Roger Smith |
MDT |
1 |
0.037 |
|
12 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
12 |
MarkHofmann |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
MarkHofmann |
BOS HYA BGM ISP ABE EWR
IAD |
7 |
0.280 |
|
2 |
snowman |
CAR BGR BTV RIC ORF RDU |
6 |
0.222 |
|
3 |
Shillelagh |
PHL BWI DCA SBY |
4 |
0.167 |
|
4 |
iralibov |
ORH PVD BDR BDL |
4 |
0.154 |
|
5 |
TQ |
CON MDT |
2 |
0.080 |
|
6 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
PWM RIC |
2 |
0.077 |
|
7 |
snocat918 |
DCA |
1 |
0.042 |
|
8 |
Brad Yehl |
ALB |
1 |
0.040 |
|
8 |
Wxoutlooks@aol |
JFK |
1 |
0.040 |
|
10 |
Roger Smith |
ACY |
1 |
0.037 |
|
11 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
weatherT |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ BTV…PRH…ALB
MAX forecast best @ PWM…BOS…HYA…ISP…ABE…MDT…PHL…ACY…EWR…BWI…SBY
MAX forecast less than observed @ PHL…SBY
MIN forecasts best @ BGR…BDR
MIN forecasts more than observed @ none
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins
An apparent SN:H20 outlier at BOS; however, vicinity reports
suggest STP is accurate.
No climate snowfall data for CON reported on SAT...03-JAN. DAY2 snowfall
estimated at 3.35" based on 0.18 precipitation at SN:H20 of ~18-to-1 (DAY2
average SN:H20 for PWM and ORH)
SBY 2.75" STP estimated from PNSPHI vicinity reports at SELBYVILLE
(4")...DELMAR (4.5)...LAUREL (5.1")...BRIDGEVILLE (6.1")...KGED
precipitation (0.45")...and SBY precipitation (0.21") and National
Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center - Interactive
Snow Information.
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
BOS |
15.10 |
26.5 |
|
2 |
HYA |
13.00 |
|
|
3 |
PWM |
11.90 |
18.9 |
|
4 |
ISP |
11.20 |
18.4 |
|
5 |
ORH |
10.30 |
19.1 |
|
6 |
BGM |
10.20 |
15.7 |
|
7 |
ALB |
9.30 |
12.2 |
|
8 |
PHL |
9.00 |
12.9 |
|
9 |
CON |
8.90 |
13.9 |
|
10 |
EWR |
8.80 |
16.9 |
|
11 |
JFK |
7.90 |
22.6 |
|
12 |
PVD |
7.20 |
24.8 |
|
12 |
ABE |
7.20 |
10.3 |
|
14 |
BDL |
7.00 |
20.0 |
|
15 |
ACY |
6.50 |
10.8 |
|
16 |
MDT |
5.50 |
15.7 |
|
17 |
BDR |
4.70 |
13.1 |
|
18 |
BWI |
4.20 |
9.5 |
|
19 |
BTV |
3.20 |
21.3 |
|
20 |
IAD |
3.00 |
8.3 |
|
21 |
BGR |
2.80 |
|
|
22 |
SBY |
2.75 |
13.1 |
|
23 |
DCA |
1.90 |
5.8 |
|
24 |
RIC |
0.05 |
|
|
|
CAR |
-
|
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT/AVG |
172 |
15.7 |
New Daily Records:
Twelve new daily records.
Back-to-back records at ACY...EWR...ISP...and JFK
BOS - 10.6" (8"; 1904)
ALB - 7.1" (6.8"; 1987)
ISP - 4.7" (3"; 2010)
ACY - 3.7" (1.1"; 1962)
EWR - 3.2" (2"; 1978)
IAD - 3" (2"; 1978)
JFK - 2.4" (1.1"; 1984)
ISP - 6.5" (2.1"; 2010)
EWR - 5.6" (1.2"; 1981)
JFK - 5.5" (1.2"; 1988)
PHL - 3.4" (1.5"; 1988)
ACY - 2.8" (0.4"; 1988)