Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts – Snow Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

125.75

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

Herb@MAWS

Senior

23

67.1

-0.980

76.0%

1

  134.45

8.70

-0.584

68.5%

6

30.10

-0.948

47.0%

3

1.31

-1.024

46.0%

3

88.0%

1.279

32.9%

1

Herb@MAWS

TQ

Senior

21

90.4

-0.873

67.6%

2

  118.00

7.75

-0.613

71.9%

5

31.95

-0.883

43.8%

4

1.52

-0.828

37.2%

4

84.3%

1.061

27.3%

2

TQ

donsutherland1

Senior

24

109.7

-0.783

60.7%

3

  113.15

12.60

-0.464

54.4%

8

29.40

-0.973

48.3%

2

1.23

-1.101

49.4%

1

80.8%

0.856

22.0%

4

donsutherland1

kevinmyatt

Intern

21

112.6

-0.770

59.6%

4

  108.00

17.75

-0.305

35.7%

11

36.35

-0.727

36.1%

6

1.73

-0.635

28.5%

6

81.1%

0.878

22.6%

3

kevinmyatt

Shillelagh

Senior

22

114.6

-0.761

58.9%

5

  122.90

2.85

-0.765

89.7%

2

35.65

-0.751

37.3%

5

1.62

-0.737

33.1%

5

79.0%

0.755

19.4%

5

Shillelagh

Brad Yehl

Journeyman

21

137.5

-0.655

50.7%

6

  108.40

17.35

-0.317

37.2%

10

27.15

-1.053

52.2%

1

1.29

-1.038

46.6%

2

76.4%

0.599

15.4%

7

Brad Yehl

snowman

Senior

23

138.3

-0.651

50.5%

7

  125.20

0.55

-0.836

98.0%

1

45.05

-0.418

20.7%

9

1.96

-0.426

19.1%

9

75.1%

0.525

13.5%

9

snowman

WeatherT

Senior

23

142.0

-0.634

49.1%

8

  106.05

19.70

-0.244

28.7%

12

42.70

-0.501

24.9%

8

1.86

-0.520

23.3%

8

78.7%

0.737

18.9%

6

WeatherT

Mitchel Volk

Senior

23

180.1

-0.458

35.5%

9

  112.00

13.75

-0.428

50.2%

9

40.05

-0.595

29.5%

7

1.74

-0.626

28.1%

7

67.8%

0.096

2.5%

10

Mitchel Volk

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

21

180.5

-0.456

35.3%

10

  146.25

20.50

-0.220

25.8%

13

54.10

-0.097

4.8%

11

2.58

0.142

-6.4%

12

75.6%

0.552

14.2%

8

Donald Rosenfeld

Roger Smith

Senior

24

208.5

-0.327

25.3%

11

  135.40

9.65

-0.555

65.1%

7

47.65

-0.326

16.2%

10

1.99

-0.401

18.0%

10

62.8%

-0.197

-5.1%

13

Roger Smith

quagmireweathercentral

Intern

23

246.7

-0.150

11.6%

12

  132.90

7.15

-0.632

74.1%

4

55.35

-0.053

2.6%

12

2.41

-0.014

0.6%

11

54.9%

-0.664

-17.1%

14

quagmireweathercentral

bruced39

Senior

23

293.4

0.066

-5.1%

13

  131.55

5.80

-0.673

79.0%

3

62.20

0.190

-9.4%

13

2.70

0.260

-11.7%

14

45.5%

-1.214

-31.2%

16

bruced39

Wxoutlooks@aol

Intern

25

365.9

0.402

-31.1%

14

  157.50

31.75

0.128

-15.0%

14

66.75

0.351

-17.4%

14

2.67

0.229

-10.3%

13

49.7%

-0.970

-24.9%

15

Wxoutlooks@aol

defman27

Senior

27

612.4

1.542

-119.4%

15

  186.58

60.83

1.025

-120.3%

16

95.23

1.361

-67.5%

16

3.53

1.017

-45.7%

15

34.6%

-1.856

-47.7%

17

defman27

JDG63

Intern

21

626.9

1.609

-124.6%

16

   85.01

40.74

0.405

-47.5%

15

92.14

1.252

-62.1%

15

4.39

1.809

-81.2%

16

27.0%

-2.307

-59.3%

18

JDG63

MarkHofmann

Senior

26

667.0

1.794

-139.0%

17

  239.00

113.25

2.643

-310.1%

18

116.25

2.107

-104.5%

18

4.47

1.886

-84.6%

17

64.2%

-0.120

-3.1%

12

MarkHofmann

snocat918

Intern

25

729.5

2.084

-161.4%

18

  232.20

106.45

2.433

-285.4%

17

115.05

2.064

-102.4%

17

4.60

2.006

-90.1%

18

66.0%

-0.010

-0.3%

11

snocat918

Forecast Parameters

416

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

Forecast Parameters

MIN

21

67

-0.980

-161.4%

1

85.01

0.55

-0.836

-310.1%

1

27.2

-1.053

-104.5%

1

1.23

-1.101

-90.1%

1

27.0%

-2.307

-59.3%

      1

MIN

MAX

27

730

2.084

76.0%

18

239.00

113.25

2.643

98.0%

18

116.3

2.107

52.2%

18

4.60

2.006

49.4%

18

88.0%

1.279

32.9%

    18

MAX

AVG

23

279

0.000

0.0%

10

138.59

27.62

0.000

0.0%

10

56.8

0.000

0.0%

10

2.42

0.000

0.0%

10

66.2%

0.000

0.0%

    10

AVG

Median

23

180

-0.457

35.4%

10

128.38

15.55

-0.373

43.7%

10

46.4

-0.372

18.5%

10

1.97

-0.413

18.6%

10

71.5%

0.311

8.0%

    10

Median

Mode

23

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

STD

2

216

1.000

77.5%

5.2

40.59

32.40

1.000

117.3%

5.2

28.2

1.000

49.6%

5.2

1.09

1.000

44.9%

5.2

17.0%

1.000

25.7%

   5.2

STD

25%

21

120

-0.734

-24.6%

5

112.29

7.99

-0.606

-4.8%

5

35.8

-0.745

-15.4%

5

1.65

-0.711

-11.3%

5

56.9%

-0.547

-14.1%

      5

 

75%

24

348

0.318

56.9%

14

143.54

28.94

0.041

71.1%

14

65.6

0.311

37.0%

14

2.70

0.252

31.9%

14

79.0%

0.750

19.3%

    14

 

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

kevinmyatt

BGR HYA

0.095

1

Brad Yehl

PWM BWI

0.095

3

TQ

HYA

0.048

4

Mitchel Volk

ORH

0.043

5

donsutherland1

IAD

0.042

6

Wxoutlooks@aol

BGR

0.040

7

defman27

IAD

0.037

8

Herb@MAWS

 

0.000

8

Shillelagh

 

0.000

8

snowman

 

0.000

8

WeatherT

 

0.000

8

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0.000

8

Roger Smith

 

0.000

8

quagmireweathercentral

 

0.000

8

bruced39

 

0.000

8

JDG63

 

0.000

8

MarkHofmann

 

0.000

8

snocat918

 

0.000

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

Brad Yehl

PWM BTV PVD BDR BDL BWI

6

0.286

2

Mitchel Volk

BOS ORH JFK MDT

4

0.174

3

kevinmyatt

BGR HYA MDT

3

0.143

4

TQ

HYA PHL

2

0.095

5

Shillelagh

PVD BDL

2

0.091

6

snowman

CON BDR

2

0.087

6

WeatherT

PVD EWR

2

0.087

6

quagmireweathercentral

ALB ABE

2

0.087

9

donsutherland1

BGM IAD

2

0.083

9

Roger Smith

BDR ISP

2

0.083

11

Herb@MAWS

JFK

1

0.043

11

bruced39

BDR

1

0.043

13

Wxoutlooks@aol

BGR

1

0.040

14

MarkHofmann

CAR

1

0.038

15

defman27

IAD

1

0.037

16

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0

0.000

16

JDG63

 

0

0.000

16

snocat918

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

MarkHofmann

JFK PHL BWI DCA SBY RIC ORF

7

0.269

2

snocat918

BGR PWM BTV PVD BDR BDL

6

0.240

3

JDG63

HYA ORH ALB BGM ABE

5

0.238

4

defman27

CON ISP ACY EWR RDU

5

0.185

5

Wxoutlooks@aol

BOS MDT

2

0.080

6

snowman

IAD

1

0.043

6

quagmireweathercentral

CAR

1

0.043

8

Herb@MAWS

 

0

0.000

8

TQ

 

0

0.000

8

donsutherland1

 

0

0.000

8

kevinmyatt

 

0

0.000

8

Shillelagh

 

0

0.000

8

Brad Yehl

 

0

0.000

8

WeatherT

 

0

0.000

8

Mitchel Volk

 

0

0.000

8

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0

0.000

8

Roger Smith

 

0

0.000

8

bruced39

 

0

0.000

 

 

Consensus forecast best @ BGR…CON…ORH…BDR…BGM…JFK…ABE…BWR

MAX forecast best @ CAR

MAX forecast less than observed @ CAR

MIN forecasts best @ BOS…HYA…PHL…ACY

MIN forecasts more than observed @ PHL

 

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Generally good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.

 

BDR

The 7 PM PNS report of 3.2" was followed by three more hours of snow (0.19 melted) before changeover to FZRA.

BDR's CF6 carries 5"

BDR's CLI bulletin carries 4", which is not supported by the METARs.

 

BGR

Amended from 5.2” to 10" after considering proximity reports of the same amount from Brewer and BGR 1 SW.

 

Rank

Station

 Snow

 SN:H2O

        1

CAR

15.5

       19.1

        2

PWM

12.4

       13.5

        3

ALB

11.5

 

        4

CON

10.3

       11.7

        5

BGR

10.0

 

        6

ORH

9.0

         8.4

        7

BGM

7.7

       16.4

        8

ABE

6.8

 

        9

BDL

6.7

         9.2

      10

BTV

6.5

       13.3

      11

BDR

5.0

 

      12

EWR

4.3

 

      13

BOS

4.2

 

      14

ISP

4.1

 

      15

PVD

3.8

 

      16

JFK

3.2

 

      17

MDT

3.1

 

      18

HYA

1.0

 

      19

IAD

0.3

 

      19

PHL

0.3

 

      21

BWI

0.05

 

 

ACY

        -  

 

 

DCA

        -  

 

 

ORF

        -  

 

 

RDU

        -  

 

 

RIC

        -  

 

 

SBY

        -  

 

 

TOT/AVG

      126

       13.1

 

New Daily Records:

SAT...15-DEC-13

EWR - 4.3" (4.2"; 1951)

ISP - 4.1" (1.2"; 1988)

 

SUN...16-DEC-13

PWM - 10.6" (10.3"; 2003)