Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the left-side link from 'Storm Contest Verified Forecasts – Snow Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
125.75 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
Herb@MAWS |
Senior |
23 |
67.1 |
-0.980 |
76.0% |
1 |
134.45 |
8.70 |
-0.584 |
68.5% |
6 |
30.10 |
-0.948 |
47.0% |
3 |
1.31 |
-1.024 |
46.0% |
3 |
88.0% |
1.279 |
32.9% |
1 |
Herb@MAWS |
TQ |
Senior |
21 |
90.4 |
-0.873 |
67.6% |
2 |
118.00 |
7.75 |
-0.613 |
71.9% |
5 |
31.95 |
-0.883 |
43.8% |
4 |
1.52 |
-0.828 |
37.2% |
4 |
84.3% |
1.061 |
27.3% |
2 |
TQ |
donsutherland1 |
Senior |
24 |
109.7 |
-0.783 |
60.7% |
3 |
113.15 |
12.60 |
-0.464 |
54.4% |
8 |
29.40 |
-0.973 |
48.3% |
2 |
1.23 |
-1.101 |
49.4% |
1 |
80.8% |
0.856 |
22.0% |
4 |
donsutherland1 |
kevinmyatt |
Intern |
21 |
112.6 |
-0.770 |
59.6% |
4 |
108.00 |
17.75 |
-0.305 |
35.7% |
11 |
36.35 |
-0.727 |
36.1% |
6 |
1.73 |
-0.635 |
28.5% |
6 |
81.1% |
0.878 |
22.6% |
3 |
kevinmyatt |
Shillelagh |
Senior |
22 |
114.6 |
-0.761 |
58.9% |
5 |
122.90 |
2.85 |
-0.765 |
89.7% |
2 |
35.65 |
-0.751 |
37.3% |
5 |
1.62 |
-0.737 |
33.1% |
5 |
79.0% |
0.755 |
19.4% |
5 |
Shillelagh |
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
21 |
137.5 |
-0.655 |
50.7% |
6 |
108.40 |
17.35 |
-0.317 |
37.2% |
10 |
27.15 |
-1.053 |
52.2% |
1 |
1.29 |
-1.038 |
46.6% |
2 |
76.4% |
0.599 |
15.4% |
7 |
Brad Yehl |
snowman |
Senior |
23 |
138.3 |
-0.651 |
50.5% |
7 |
125.20 |
0.55 |
-0.836 |
98.0% |
1 |
45.05 |
-0.418 |
20.7% |
9 |
1.96 |
-0.426 |
19.1% |
9 |
75.1% |
0.525 |
13.5% |
9 |
snowman |
WeatherT |
Senior |
23 |
142.0 |
-0.634 |
49.1% |
8 |
106.05 |
19.70 |
-0.244 |
28.7% |
12 |
42.70 |
-0.501 |
24.9% |
8 |
1.86 |
-0.520 |
23.3% |
8 |
78.7% |
0.737 |
18.9% |
6 |
WeatherT |
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
23 |
180.1 |
-0.458 |
35.5% |
9 |
112.00 |
13.75 |
-0.428 |
50.2% |
9 |
40.05 |
-0.595 |
29.5% |
7 |
1.74 |
-0.626 |
28.1% |
7 |
67.8% |
0.096 |
2.5% |
10 |
Mitchel Volk |
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
21 |
180.5 |
-0.456 |
35.3% |
10 |
146.25 |
20.50 |
-0.220 |
25.8% |
13 |
54.10 |
-0.097 |
4.8% |
11 |
2.58 |
0.142 |
-6.4% |
12 |
75.6% |
0.552 |
14.2% |
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
Roger Smith |
Senior |
24 |
208.5 |
-0.327 |
25.3% |
11 |
135.40 |
9.65 |
-0.555 |
65.1% |
7 |
47.65 |
-0.326 |
16.2% |
10 |
1.99 |
-0.401 |
18.0% |
10 |
62.8% |
-0.197 |
-5.1% |
13 |
Roger Smith |
quagmireweathercentral |
Intern |
23 |
246.7 |
-0.150 |
11.6% |
12 |
132.90 |
7.15 |
-0.632 |
74.1% |
4 |
55.35 |
-0.053 |
2.6% |
12 |
2.41 |
-0.014 |
0.6% |
11 |
54.9% |
-0.664 |
-17.1% |
14 |
quagmireweathercentral |
bruced39 |
Senior |
23 |
293.4 |
0.066 |
-5.1% |
13 |
131.55 |
5.80 |
-0.673 |
79.0% |
3 |
62.20 |
0.190 |
-9.4% |
13 |
2.70 |
0.260 |
-11.7% |
14 |
45.5% |
-1.214 |
-31.2% |
16 |
bruced39 |
Wxoutlooks@aol |
Intern |
25 |
365.9 |
0.402 |
-31.1% |
14 |
157.50 |
31.75 |
0.128 |
-15.0% |
14 |
66.75 |
0.351 |
-17.4% |
14 |
2.67 |
0.229 |
-10.3% |
13 |
49.7% |
-0.970 |
-24.9% |
15 |
Wxoutlooks@aol |
defman27 |
Senior |
27 |
612.4 |
1.542 |
-119.4% |
15 |
186.58 |
60.83 |
1.025 |
-120.3% |
16 |
95.23 |
1.361 |
-67.5% |
16 |
3.53 |
1.017 |
-45.7% |
15 |
34.6% |
-1.856 |
-47.7% |
17 |
defman27 |
JDG63 |
Intern |
21 |
626.9 |
1.609 |
-124.6% |
16 |
85.01 |
40.74 |
0.405 |
-47.5% |
15 |
92.14 |
1.252 |
-62.1% |
15 |
4.39 |
1.809 |
-81.2% |
16 |
27.0% |
-2.307 |
-59.3% |
18 |
JDG63 |
MarkHofmann |
Senior |
26 |
667.0 |
1.794 |
-139.0% |
17 |
239.00 |
113.25 |
2.643 |
-310.1% |
18 |
116.25 |
2.107 |
-104.5% |
18 |
4.47 |
1.886 |
-84.6% |
17 |
64.2% |
-0.120 |
-3.1% |
12 |
MarkHofmann |
snocat918 |
Intern |
25 |
729.5 |
2.084 |
-161.4% |
18 |
232.20 |
106.45 |
2.433 |
-285.4% |
17 |
115.05 |
2.064 |
-102.4% |
17 |
4.60 |
2.006 |
-90.1% |
18 |
66.0% |
-0.010 |
-0.3% |
11 |
snocat918 |
Forecast
Parameters |
416 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
MIN |
21 |
67 |
-0.980 |
-161.4% |
1 |
85.01 |
0.55 |
-0.836 |
-310.1% |
1 |
27.2 |
-1.053 |
-104.5% |
1 |
1.23 |
-1.101 |
-90.1% |
1 |
27.0% |
-2.307 |
-59.3% |
1 |
MIN |
|
MAX |
27 |
730 |
2.084 |
76.0% |
18 |
239.00 |
113.25 |
2.643 |
98.0% |
18 |
116.3 |
2.107 |
52.2% |
18 |
4.60 |
2.006 |
49.4% |
18 |
88.0% |
1.279 |
32.9% |
18 |
MAX |
|
AVG |
23 |
279 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
10 |
138.59 |
27.62 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
10 |
56.8 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
10 |
2.42 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
10 |
66.2% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
10 |
AVG |
|
Median |
23 |
180 |
-0.457 |
35.4% |
10 |
128.38 |
15.55 |
-0.373 |
43.7% |
10 |
46.4 |
-0.372 |
18.5% |
10 |
1.97 |
-0.413 |
18.6% |
10 |
71.5% |
0.311 |
8.0% |
10 |
Median |
|
Mode |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
STD |
2 |
216 |
1.000 |
77.5% |
5.2 |
40.59 |
32.40 |
1.000 |
117.3% |
5.2 |
28.2 |
1.000 |
49.6% |
5.2 |
1.09 |
1.000 |
44.9% |
5.2 |
17.0% |
1.000 |
25.7% |
5.2 |
STD |
|
25% |
21 |
120 |
-0.734 |
-24.6% |
5 |
112.29 |
7.99 |
-0.606 |
-4.8% |
5 |
35.8 |
-0.745 |
-15.4% |
5 |
1.65 |
-0.711 |
-11.3% |
5 |
56.9% |
-0.547 |
-14.1% |
5 |
|
|
75% |
24 |
348 |
0.318 |
56.9% |
14 |
143.54 |
28.94 |
0.041 |
71.1% |
14 |
65.6 |
0.311 |
37.0% |
14 |
2.70 |
0.252 |
31.9% |
14 |
79.0% |
0.750 |
19.3% |
14 |
|
Perfect Forecasts
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
1 |
kevinmyatt |
BGR HYA |
0.095 |
1 |
Brad Yehl |
PWM BWI |
0.095 |
3 |
TQ |
HYA |
0.048 |
4 |
Mitchel Volk |
ORH |
0.043 |
5 |
donsutherland1 |
IAD |
0.042 |
6 |
Wxoutlooks@aol |
BGR |
0.040 |
7 |
defman27 |
IAD |
0.037 |
8 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0.000 |
8 |
Shillelagh |
|
0.000 |
8 |
snowman |
|
0.000 |
8 |
WeatherT |
|
0.000 |
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
8 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
8 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
0.000 |
8 |
bruced39 |
|
0.000 |
8 |
JDG63 |
|
0.000 |
8 |
MarkHofmann |
|
0.000 |
8 |
snocat918 |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
1 |
Brad Yehl |
PWM BTV PVD BDR BDL BWI |
6 |
0.286 |
2 |
Mitchel Volk |
BOS ORH JFK MDT |
4 |
0.174 |
3 |
kevinmyatt |
BGR HYA MDT |
3 |
0.143 |
4 |
TQ |
HYA PHL |
2 |
0.095 |
5 |
Shillelagh |
PVD BDL |
2 |
0.091 |
6 |
snowman |
CON BDR |
2 |
0.087 |
6 |
WeatherT |
PVD EWR |
2 |
0.087 |
6 |
quagmireweathercentral |
ALB ABE |
2 |
0.087 |
9 |
donsutherland1 |
BGM IAD |
2 |
0.083 |
9 |
Roger Smith |
BDR ISP |
2 |
0.083 |
11 |
Herb@MAWS |
JFK |
1 |
0.043 |
11 |
bruced39 |
BDR |
1 |
0.043 |
13 |
Wxoutlooks@aol |
BGR |
1 |
0.040 |
14 |
MarkHofmann |
CAR |
1 |
0.038 |
15 |
defman27 |
IAD |
1 |
0.037 |
16 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
16 |
JDG63 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
16 |
snocat918 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
1 |
MarkHofmann |
JFK PHL BWI DCA SBY RIC
ORF |
7 |
0.269 |
2 |
snocat918 |
BGR PWM BTV PVD BDR BDL |
6 |
0.240 |
3 |
JDG63 |
HYA ORH ALB BGM ABE |
5 |
0.238 |
4 |
defman27 |
CON ISP ACY EWR RDU |
5 |
0.185 |
5 |
Wxoutlooks@aol |
BOS MDT |
2 |
0.080 |
6 |
snowman |
IAD |
1 |
0.043 |
6 |
quagmireweathercentral |
CAR |
1 |
0.043 |
8 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
TQ |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
kevinmyatt |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
Shillelagh |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
WeatherT |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
Roger Smith |
|
0 |
0.000 |
8 |
bruced39 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ BGR…CON…ORH…BDR…BGM…JFK…ABE…BWR
MAX forecast best @ CAR
MAX forecast less than observed @ CAR
MIN forecasts best @ BOS…HYA…PHL…ACY
MIN forecasts more than observed @ PHL
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Generally good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
BDR
The 7 PM PNS report of 3.2" was followed by three more
hours of snow (0.19 melted) before changeover to FZRA.
BDR's CF6 carries 5"
BDR's CLI bulletin carries 4", which is not supported by the METARs.
BGR
Amended from 5.2” to 10" after considering proximity reports of the same amount from Brewer and BGR 1 SW.
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
1 |
CAR |
15.5 |
19.1 |
2 |
PWM |
12.4 |
13.5 |
3 |
ALB |
11.5 |
|
4 |
CON |
10.3 |
11.7 |
5 |
BGR |
10.0 |
|
6 |
ORH |
9.0 |
8.4 |
7 |
BGM |
7.7 |
16.4 |
8 |
ABE |
6.8 |
|
9 |
BDL |
6.7 |
9.2 |
10 |
BTV |
6.5 |
13.3 |
11 |
BDR |
5.0 |
|
12 |
EWR |
4.3 |
|
13 |
BOS |
4.2 |
|
14 |
ISP |
4.1 |
|
15 |
PVD |
3.8 |
|
16 |
JFK |
3.2 |
|
17 |
MDT |
3.1 |
|
18 |
HYA |
1.0 |
|
19 |
IAD |
0.3 |
|
19 |
PHL |
0.3 |
|
21 |
BWI |
0.05 |
|
|
ACY |
-
|
|
|
DCA |
-
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
SBY |
-
|
|
|
TOT/AVG |
126 |
13.1 |
New Daily Records:
SAT...15-DEC-13
EWR - 4.3" (4.2"; 1951)
ISP - 4.1" (1.2"; 1988)
SUN...16-DEC-13
PWM - 10.6" (10.3"; 2003)