Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #X to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
102.95 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
24 |
47.0 |
-0.609 |
59.7% |
1 |
92.05 |
10.90 |
-0.494 |
44.8% |
6 |
23.70 |
-0.962 |
33.9% |
1 |
0.99 |
-0.920 |
33.1% |
1 |
90.9% |
0.503 |
9.3% |
2 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
iralibov |
Senior |
25 |
55.3 |
-0.537 |
52.6% |
2 |
94.15 |
8.80 |
-0.611 |
55.4% |
4 |
28.50 |
-0.582 |
20.5% |
3 |
1.14 |
-0.633 |
22.8% |
3 |
87.8% |
0.303 |
5.6% |
6 |
iralibov |
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
24 |
56.7 |
-0.524 |
51.4% |
3 |
95.65 |
7.30 |
-0.695 |
63.0% |
1 |
29.70 |
-0.487 |
17.1% |
4 |
1.24 |
-0.449 |
16.2% |
5 |
88.2% |
0.327 |
6.1% |
5 |
donsutherland1 |
|
snowman |
Senior |
25 |
59.0 |
-0.504 |
49.5% |
4 |
88.56 |
14.40 |
-0.298 |
27.0% |
8 |
26.60 |
-0.733 |
25.8% |
2 |
1.06 |
-0.776 |
27.9% |
2 |
88.3% |
0.335 |
6.2% |
4 |
snowman |
|
dryslot |
Intern |
24 |
62.0 |
-0.478 |
46.9% |
5 |
110.90 |
7.95 |
-0.659 |
59.7% |
2 |
30.75 |
-0.403 |
14.2% |
6 |
1.28 |
-0.367 |
13.2% |
7 |
88.5% |
0.348 |
6.5% |
3 |
dryslot |
|
Herb@MAWS |
Senior |
25 |
67.4 |
-0.430 |
42.2% |
6 |
90.45 |
12.50 |
-0.405 |
36.7% |
7 |
30.80 |
-0.400 |
14.1% |
7 |
1.23 |
-0.460 |
16.5% |
4 |
86.7% |
0.233 |
4.3% |
9 |
Herb@MAWS |
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
24 |
72.2 |
-0.389 |
38.1% |
7 |
92.25 |
10.70 |
-0.505 |
45.8% |
5 |
30.00 |
-0.463 |
16.3% |
5 |
1.25 |
-0.426 |
15.3% |
6 |
87.8% |
0.301 |
5.6% |
7 |
Brad Yehl |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
23 |
106.9 |
-0.085 |
8.4% |
8 |
68.21 |
34.74 |
0.840 |
-76.1% |
11 |
36.64 |
0.064 |
-2.2% |
8 |
1.59 |
0.221 |
-7.9% |
10 |
87.5% |
0.283 |
5.3% |
8 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
TQ |
Senior |
25 |
120.1 |
0.030 |
-3.0% |
9 |
80.65 |
22.30 |
0.144 |
-13.0% |
9 |
39.40 |
0.282 |
-9.9% |
10 |
1.58 |
0.188 |
-6.8% |
9 |
82.9% |
-0.016 |
-0.3% |
11 |
TQ |
|
snocat918 |
Rookie |
25 |
133.4 |
0.146 |
-14.3% |
10 |
111.54 |
8.59 |
-0.623 |
56.5% |
3 |
39.01 |
0.252 |
-8.9% |
9 |
1.56 |
0.159 |
-5.7% |
8 |
83.6% |
0.029 |
0.5% |
10 |
snocat918 |
|
quagmireweathercentral |
Rookie |
24 |
138.3 |
0.189 |
-18.5% |
11 |
129.00 |
26.05 |
0.354 |
-32.1% |
10 |
41.05 |
0.413 |
-14.5% |
11 |
1.71 |
0.442 |
-15.9% |
11 |
92.8% |
0.626 |
11.7% |
1 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
24 |
481.8 |
3.191 |
-313.0% |
12 |
30.45 |
72.50 |
2.952 |
-267.5% |
12 |
73.90 |
3.018 |
-106.2% |
12 |
3.08 |
3.020 |
-108.6% |
12 |
32.6% |
-3.271 |
-60.8% |
12 |
Roger Smith |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
292 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
23 |
47 |
-0.609 |
-313.0% |
1 |
30.45 |
7.30 |
-0.695 |
-267.5% |
1 |
23.7 |
-0.962 |
-106.2% |
1 |
0.99 |
-0.920 |
-108.6% |
1 |
32.6% |
-3.271 |
-60.8% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
25 |
482 |
3.191 |
59.7% |
12 |
129.00 |
72.50 |
2.952 |
63.0% |
12 |
73.9 |
3.018 |
33.9% |
12 |
3.08 |
3.020 |
33.1% |
12 |
92.8% |
0.626 |
11.7% |
12 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
24 |
117 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
90.32 |
19.73 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
35.8 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
1.48 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
83.1% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
24 |
70 |
-0.409 |
40.2% |
7 |
92.15 |
11.70 |
-0.449 |
40.7% |
7 |
30.8 |
-0.401 |
14.1% |
7 |
1.27 |
-0.396 |
14.2% |
7 |
87.8% |
0.302 |
5.6% |
7 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
114 |
1.000 |
98.1% |
3.5 |
23.43 |
17.87 |
1.000 |
90.6% |
3.5 |
12.6 |
1.000 |
35.2% |
3.5 |
0.53 |
1.000 |
36.0% |
3.5 |
15.5% |
1.000 |
18.6% |
3.5 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
24 |
58 |
-0.509 |
-5.8% |
4 |
86.58 |
8.75 |
-0.614 |
-17.8% |
4 |
29.4 |
-0.510 |
-9.1% |
4 |
1.21 |
-0.503 |
-7.1% |
4 |
85.9% |
0.182 |
3.4% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
25 |
123 |
0.059 |
50.0% |
9 |
99.46 |
23.24 |
0.196 |
55.7% |
9 |
39.1 |
0.259 |
18.0% |
9 |
1.58 |
0.197 |
18.1% |
9 |
88.4% |
0.338 |
6.3% |
9 |
|
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Brad Yehl |
HYA PHL SBY RIC |
0.167 |
|
2 |
donsutherland1 |
PHL SBY RIC |
0.125 |
|
3 |
Herb@MAWS |
HYA DCA |
0.080 |
|
3 |
snocat918 |
HYA RIC |
0.080 |
|
3 |
TQ |
PHL SBY |
0.080 |
|
6 |
Mitchel Volk |
BDR |
0.043 |
|
7 |
Roger Smith |
HYA |
0.042 |
|
8 |
snowman |
MDT |
0.040 |
|
9 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
9 |
dryslot |
|
0.000 |
|
9 |
iralibov |
|
0.000 |
|
9 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Brad Yehl |
CAR CON HYA PHL SBY RIC |
6 |
0.250 |
|
2 |
Herb@MAWS |
BGR HYA ORH ALB DCA |
5 |
0.200 |
|
2 |
snowman |
BGR BTV BGM ABE MDT |
5 |
0.200 |
|
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
ORH JFK ABE EWR |
4 |
0.167 |
|
5 |
snocat918 |
HYA BDL IAD RIC |
4 |
0.160 |
|
5 |
TQ |
BDL ISP PHL SBY |
4 |
0.160 |
|
7 |
donsutherland1 |
PHL SBY RIC |
3 |
0.125 |
|
8 |
Mitchel Volk |
BDR BDL |
2 |
0.087 |
|
9 |
dryslot |
PWM BOS |
2 |
0.083 |
|
10 |
Roger Smith |
HYA |
1 |
0.042 |
|
11 |
iralibov |
PVD |
1 |
0.040 |
|
12 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Roger Smith |
BGR PWM CON BOS ORH BDL
ALB BGM |
8 |
0.333 |
|
2 |
Herb@MAWS |
PVD BDR ISP JFK EWR |
5 |
0.200 |
|
3 |
Mitchel Volk |
BTV ISP JFK ABE |
4 |
0.174 |
|
4 |
dryslot |
IAD SBY RIC |
3 |
0.125 |
|
5 |
TQ |
HYA BWI DCA |
3 |
0.120 |
|
6 |
iralibov |
PHL ACY |
2 |
0.080 |
|
7 |
Brad Yehl |
ISP |
1 |
0.042 |
|
7 |
donsutherland1 |
MDT |
1 |
0.042 |
|
9 |
snocat918 |
CAR |
1 |
0.040 |
|
9 |
snowman |
ISP |
1 |
0.040 |
|
11 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
11 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ CAR…BGR…BTV…BDL…ALB…ABE…MDT…IAD
MAX forecast best @ BOS…BDR…BGM
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @
MIN forecasts more than observed @
Good association between Z-score for SUMSQ and TAE.
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins
Five new daily records:
CON - 11" (3.9"; 1971)
BTV - 8.9" (2.3"; 1928)
PWM - 8.7" (4.7"; 1971)
BGR - 7.7" (5"; 1987)
ORH - 7.7" (7"; 1956)
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
CON |
11.2 |
12.9 |
|
2 |
CAR |
10.4 |
14.2 |
|
3 |
BTV |
9.6 |
15.7 |
|
3 |
PWM |
9.6 |
13.2 |
|
3 |
BGR |
9.6 |
13.0 |
|
6 |
ALB |
8.3 |
|
|
7 |
ORH |
7.9 |
|
|
7 |
BGM |
7.9 |
13.4 |
|
9 |
BOS |
7.2 |
|
|
10 |
BDL |
5.2 |
|
|
11 |
BDR |
3.0 |
13.0 |
|
12 |
ABE |
2.6 |
|
|
12 |
PVD |
2.6 |
|
|
14 |
MDT |
2.3 |
|
|
15 |
EWR |
1.9 |
|
|
16 |
JFK |
1.4 |
|
|
17 |
ISP |
1.2 |
|
|
18 |
IAD |
0.8 |
|
|
19 |
DCA |
0.05 |
|
|
19 |
HYA |
0.05 |
|
|
19 |
PHL |
0.05 |
|
|
19 |
RIC |
0.05 |
|
|
19 |
SBY |
0.05 |
|
|
|
ACY |
-
|
|
|
|
BWI |
-
|
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
103 |
13.6 |