Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #5 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
93.50 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
dryslot |
Intern |
25 |
459.5 |
-1.539 |
40.6% |
1 |
50.00 |
43.50 |
0.454 |
-19.6% |
9 |
64.50 |
-2.129 |
35.2% |
1 |
2.58 |
-1.975 |
34.5% |
1 |
72.5% |
2.793 |
373.0% |
1 |
dryslot |
|
RyanKrimm |
Rookie |
25 |
473.2 |
-1.472 |
38.8% |
2 |
133.50 |
40.00 |
0.231 |
-10.0% |
8 |
92.60 |
-0.419 |
6.9% |
5 |
3.70 |
-0.341 |
6.0% |
6 |
42.0% |
1.304 |
174.1% |
2 |
RyanKrimm |
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
26 |
528.7 |
-1.200 |
31.6% |
3 |
110.20 |
16.70 |
-1.252 |
54.1% |
3 |
92.80 |
-0.407 |
6.7% |
6 |
3.57 |
-0.537 |
9.4% |
4 |
28.8% |
0.660 |
88.1% |
3 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
25 |
577.2 |
-0.962 |
25.4% |
4 |
103.00 |
9.50 |
-1.710 |
73.9% |
1 |
87.60 |
-0.724 |
12.0% |
3 |
3.50 |
-0.632 |
11.0% |
3 |
20.0% |
0.229 |
30.5% |
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
27 |
694.6 |
-0.386 |
10.2% |
5 |
70.60 |
22.90 |
-0.857 |
37.0% |
4 |
82.90 |
-1.009 |
16.7% |
2 |
3.07 |
-1.262 |
22.1% |
2 |
6.9% |
-0.414 |
-55.3% |
7 |
Roger Smith |
|
Shillelagh |
Senior |
25 |
736.9 |
-0.179 |
4.7% |
6 |
54.70 |
38.80 |
0.155 |
-6.7% |
7 |
91.90 |
-0.462 |
7.6% |
4 |
3.68 |
-0.382 |
6.7% |
5 |
6.5% |
-0.432 |
-57.6% |
8 |
Shillelagh |
|
TQ |
Senior |
25 |
794.1 |
0.102 |
-2.7% |
7 |
127.10 |
33.60 |
-0.176 |
7.6% |
5 |
116.10 |
1.011 |
-16.7% |
11 |
4.64 |
1.025 |
-17.9% |
11 |
7.9% |
-0.365 |
-48.7% |
6 |
TQ |
|
weatherT |
Senior |
26 |
882.8 |
0.537 |
-14.2% |
8 |
55.85 |
37.65 |
0.082 |
-3.5% |
6 |
96.65 |
-0.173 |
2.9% |
7 |
3.72 |
-0.322 |
5.6% |
7 |
0.0% |
-0.748 |
-99.8% |
13 |
weatherT |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
24 |
922.5 |
0.732 |
-19.3% |
9 |
44.45 |
49.05 |
0.807 |
-34.9% |
11 |
103.25 |
0.229 |
-3.8% |
8 |
4.30 |
0.528 |
-9.2% |
9 |
0.2% |
-0.738 |
-98.5% |
12 |
herb@maws |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
25 |
938.4 |
0.809 |
-21.3% |
10 |
158.00 |
64.50 |
1.791 |
-77.4% |
13 |
125.50 |
1.583 |
-26.1% |
13 |
5.02 |
1.571 |
-27.4% |
13 |
9.2% |
-0.300 |
-40.1% |
5 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
snocat918 |
Rookie |
26 |
944.5 |
0.840 |
-22.1% |
11 |
47.90 |
45.60 |
0.588 |
-25.4% |
10 |
106.30 |
0.414 |
-6.8% |
9 |
4.09 |
0.217 |
-3.8% |
8 |
2.1% |
-0.646 |
-86.3% |
10 |
snocat918 |
|
snowman |
Senior |
25 |
1026.0 |
1.239 |
-32.7% |
12 |
38.01 |
55.49 |
1.217 |
-52.6% |
12 |
109.19 |
0.590 |
-9.7% |
10 |
4.37 |
0.623 |
-10.9% |
10 |
0.4% |
-0.728 |
-97.2% |
11 |
snowman |
|
quagmireweathercentral |
Rookie |
25 |
1075.0 |
1.479 |
-39.0% |
13 |
109.00 |
15.50 |
-1.328 |
57.4% |
2 |
124.10 |
1.497 |
-24.7% |
12 |
4.96 |
1.490 |
-26.0% |
12 |
2.7% |
-0.616 |
-82.2% |
9 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
329 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
24 |
459 |
-1.539 |
-39.0% |
1 |
38.01 |
9.50 |
-1.710 |
-77.4% |
1 |
64.5 |
-2.129 |
-26.1% |
1 |
2.58 |
-1.975 |
-27.4% |
1 |
0.0% |
-0.748 |
-99.8% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
1075 |
1.479 |
40.6% |
13 |
158.00 |
64.50 |
1.791 |
73.9% |
13 |
125.5 |
1.583 |
35.2% |
13 |
5.02 |
1.571 |
34.5% |
13 |
72.5% |
2.793 |
373.0% |
13 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
25 |
773 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
84.79 |
36.37 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
99.5 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
3.94 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
15.3% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
25 |
794 |
0.102 |
-2.7% |
7 |
70.60 |
38.80 |
0.155 |
-6.7% |
7 |
96.7 |
-0.173 |
2.9% |
7 |
3.72 |
-0.322 |
5.6% |
7 |
6.9% |
-0.414 |
-55.3% |
7 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
204 |
1.000 |
26.4% |
3.7 |
38.65 |
15.71 |
1.000 |
43.2% |
3.7 |
16.4 |
1.000 |
16.5% |
3.7 |
0.69 |
1.000 |
17.5% |
3.7 |
20.5% |
1.000 |
133.5% |
3.7 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
25 |
577 |
-0.962 |
-21.3% |
4 |
50.00 |
22.90 |
-0.857 |
-25.4% |
4 |
91.9 |
-0.462 |
-9.7% |
4 |
3.57 |
-0.537 |
-10.9% |
4 |
2.1% |
-0.646 |
-86.3% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
26 |
938 |
0.809 |
25.4% |
10 |
110.20 |
45.60 |
0.588 |
37.0% |
10 |
109.2 |
0.590 |
7.6% |
10 |
4.37 |
0.623 |
9.4% |
10 |
20.0% |
0.229 |
30.5% |
10 |
|
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
herb@maws |
CAR |
0.042 |
|
2 |
Shillelagh |
HYA |
0.040 |
|
3 |
weatherT |
JFK |
0.038 |
|
4 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
dryslot |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
RyanKrimm |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
snocat918 |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
snowman |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
TQ |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
herb@maws |
CAR ABE MDT PHL SBY |
5 |
0.208 |
|
2 |
dryslot |
PVD BDL PHL ACY BWI |
5 |
0.200 |
|
3 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CON BGM EWR SBY |
4 |
0.160 |
|
4 |
RyanKrimm |
BOS ORH ACY |
3 |
0.120 |
|
5 |
weatherT |
PWM JFK RIC |
3 |
0.115 |
|
6 |
Roger Smith |
BTV ISP DCA |
3 |
0.111 |
|
7 |
TQ |
ALB RIC |
2 |
0.080 |
|
8 |
donsutherland1 |
PVD BDR |
2 |
0.077 |
|
9 |
Mitchel Volk |
PWM |
1 |
0.040 |
|
9 |
quagmireweathercentral |
RIC |
1 |
0.040 |
|
9 |
Shillelagh |
HYA |
1 |
0.040 |
|
9 |
snowman |
BGR |
1 |
0.040 |
|
13 |
snocat918 |
IAD |
1 |
0.038 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Mitchel Volk |
BDR BDL JFK ABE MDT PHL
BWI DCA SBY ORF |
10 |
0.400 |
|
2 |
TQ |
BGR PWM CON BTV PVD IAD
SBY |
7 |
0.280 |
|
3 |
snocat918 |
BOS ISP SBY RIC |
4 |
0.154 |
|
4 |
herb@maws |
BGR ISP EWR |
3 |
0.125 |
|
5 |
quagmireweathercentral |
HYA BGM ACY |
3 |
0.120 |
|
6 |
snowman |
ORH ISP |
2 |
0.080 |
|
7 |
RyanKrimm |
CAR |
1 |
0.040 |
|
8 |
weatherT |
ALB |
1 |
0.038 |
|
9 |
Roger Smith |
RDU |
1 |
0.037 |
|
10 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
10 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
10 |
dryslot |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
10 |
Shillelagh |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ CON…PVD…BGM…JFK…RIC
MAX forecast best @ BOS…ORH…BDR…BDL…ISP
MAX forecast less than observed @ BOS…ORH…BDR…ALB
MIN forecasts best @ MDT…DCA
MIN forecasts more than observed @ MDT…DCA
Poor association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins
New Daily Records:
Six new daily records.
WED...06-MAR-13
IAD - 3.3" (0.2"; 1989)
THU...07-MAR-13
ISP - 2" (1"; 1999)
FRI...08-MAR-13
ORH - 14.9" (9"; 1941)
BOS - 10.5" (8"; 1941)
BDR - 9" (3.5"; 2005)
ALB - 6.5" (6.2"; 2005)
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
ORH |
22.8 |
16.3 |
|
2 |
BOS |
13.1 |
27.9 |
|
3 |
BDR |
10.0 |
11.4 |
|
4 |
ALB |
9.6 |
13.9 |
|
5 |
EWR |
6.7 |
|
|
6 |
ISP |
5.7 |
9.5 |
|
7 |
BDL |
4.5 |
13.2 |
|
8 |
CON |
4.1 |
18.6 |
|
9 |
IAD |
3.3 |
|
|
10 |
JFK |
3.0 |
11.1 |
|
11 |
BGM |
2.3 |
13.5 |
|
11 |
PVD |
2.3 |
12.8 |
|
13 |
PWM |
1.6 |
14.5 |
|
14 |
RIC |
1.5 |
|
|
15 |
HYA |
1.0 |
|
|
16 |
ACY |
0.9 |
6.9 |
|
17 |
BTV |
0.4 |
|
|
18 |
DCA |
0.2 |
|
|
18 |
PHL |
0.2 |
10.0 |
|
20 |
ABE |
0.05 |
|
|
20 |
BGR |
0.05 |
|
|
20 |
BWI |
0.05 |
|
|
20 |
CAR |
0.05 |
|
|
20 |
MDT |
0.05 |
|
|
20 |
SBY |
0.05 |
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
93.50 |
13.8 |
05-MAR-13
06-MAR-13
07-MAR-13