Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #4 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
29.10 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
22 |
7.0 |
-1.127 |
88.1% |
1 |
33.91 |
4.81 |
-0.844 |
64.6% |
3 |
7.39 |
-1.486 |
67.0% |
1 |
0.34 |
-1.661 |
65.6% |
1 |
97.6% |
1.162 |
33.9% |
1 |
Brad Yehl |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
22 |
14.8 |
-0.959 |
75.0% |
2 |
39.96 |
10.86 |
-0.262 |
20.0% |
5 |
13.94 |
-0.838 |
37.8% |
2 |
0.63 |
-0.887 |
35.0% |
3 |
93.3% |
0.960 |
28.0% |
2 |
herb@maws |
|
weatherT |
Senior |
24 |
31.4 |
-0.600 |
46.9% |
3 |
29.71 |
0.61 |
-1.249 |
95.5% |
1 |
19.39 |
-0.300 |
13.5% |
6 |
0.81 |
-0.434 |
17.1% |
4 |
63.7% |
-0.430 |
-12.5% |
8 |
weatherT |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
23 |
34.0 |
-0.543 |
42.5% |
4 |
38.61 |
9.50 |
-0.392 |
30.0% |
4 |
14.10 |
-0.823 |
37.2% |
3 |
0.61 |
-0.941 |
37.2% |
2 |
82.3% |
0.441 |
12.9% |
5 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
dryslot |
Intern |
19 |
39.0 |
-0.435 |
34.0% |
5 |
40.81 |
11.71 |
-0.179 |
13.7% |
6 |
17.39 |
-0.498 |
22.5% |
4 |
0.92 |
-0.156 |
6.1% |
6 |
87.6% |
0.694 |
20.3% |
4 |
dryslot |
|
snocat918 |
Rookie |
22 |
50.2 |
-0.193 |
15.1% |
6 |
42.76 |
13.66 |
0.008 |
-0.6% |
7 |
19.14 |
-0.325 |
14.7% |
5 |
0.87 |
-0.273 |
10.8% |
5 |
92.9% |
0.942 |
27.5% |
3 |
snocat918 |
|
quagmireweathercentral |
Rookie |
19 |
64.9 |
0.126 |
-9.8% |
7 |
30.51 |
1.41 |
-1.172 |
89.6% |
2 |
25.60 |
0.313 |
-14.1% |
7 |
1.35 |
0.966 |
-38.1% |
8 |
29.1% |
-2.060 |
-60.1% |
10 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
25 |
83.9 |
0.536 |
-41.9% |
8 |
54.85 |
25.75 |
1.174 |
-89.8% |
9 |
30.35 |
0.782 |
-35.3% |
8 |
1.21 |
0.620 |
-24.5% |
7 |
68.4% |
-0.212 |
-6.2% |
6 |
Roger Smith |
|
iralibov |
Senior |
25 |
92.7 |
0.728 |
-56.9% |
9 |
52.76 |
23.66 |
0.971 |
-74.3% |
8 |
35.14 |
1.256 |
-56.7% |
9 |
1.41 |
1.118 |
-44.1% |
9 |
45.6% |
-1.281 |
-37.4% |
9 |
iralibov |
|
TQ |
Senior |
26 |
173.2 |
2.469 |
-193.0% |
10 |
62.85 |
33.75 |
1.944 |
-148.7% |
10 |
41.85 |
1.919 |
-86.6% |
10 |
1.61 |
1.648 |
-65.0% |
10 |
68.3% |
-0.217 |
-6.3% |
7 |
TQ |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
227 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
19 |
7 |
-1.127 |
-193.0% |
1 |
29.71 |
0.61 |
-1.249 |
-148.7% |
1 |
7.4 |
-1.486 |
-86.6% |
1 |
0.34 |
-1.661 |
-65.0% |
1 |
29.1% |
-2.060 |
-60.1% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
26 |
173 |
2.469 |
88.1% |
10 |
62.85 |
33.75 |
1.944 |
95.5% |
10 |
41.8 |
1.919 |
67.0% |
10 |
1.61 |
1.648 |
65.6% |
10 |
97.6% |
1.162 |
33.9% |
10 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
23 |
59 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
42.67 |
13.57 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
22.4 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
0.98 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
72.9% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
6 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
23 |
45 |
-0.314 |
24.6% |
6 |
40.38 |
11.28 |
-0.220 |
16.9% |
6 |
19.3 |
-0.312 |
14.1% |
6 |
0.89 |
-0.214 |
8.5% |
6 |
75.3% |
0.115 |
3.3% |
6 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
2 |
46 |
1.000 |
78.2% |
2.9 |
10.38 |
10.38 |
1.000 |
76.5% |
2.9 |
10.1 |
1.000 |
45.1% |
2.9 |
0.38 |
1.000 |
39.5% |
2.9 |
21.3% |
1.000 |
29.2% |
2.9 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
22 |
32 |
-0.586 |
-33.9% |
3 |
35.08 |
5.98 |
-0.731 |
-55.9% |
3 |
14.9 |
-0.742 |
-30.0% |
3 |
0.68 |
-0.774 |
-34.7% |
3 |
64.9% |
-0.377 |
-11.0% |
3 |
|
|
|
75% |
25 |
79 |
0.433 |
45.8% |
8 |
50.26 |
21.16 |
0.731 |
55.9% |
8 |
29.2 |
0.665 |
33.5% |
8 |
1.31 |
0.879 |
30.5% |
8 |
91.6% |
0.880 |
25.7% |
8 |
|
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
TQ |
BTV ISP MDT BWI IAD |
0.192 |
|
2 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
PWM BDL MDT |
0.130 |
|
3 |
weatherT |
BGR ISP |
0.083 |
|
4 |
snocat918 |
BDR |
0.045 |
|
5 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
dryslot |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
herb@maws |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
iralibov |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
0.000 |
|
5 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
PWM BOS ORH PVD BDL ABE
MDT RDU |
8 |
0.348 |
|
2 |
Brad Yehl |
CAR CON ORH ABE SBY ORF
RDU |
7 |
0.318 |
|
3 |
snocat918 |
BDR BGM ABE SBY ORF RDU |
6 |
0.273 |
|
4 |
TQ |
BTV ISP ABE MDT BWI IAD |
6 |
0.231 |
|
5 |
dryslot |
ABE SBY ORF RDU |
4 |
0.211 |
|
6 |
weatherT |
BGR HYA ISP ABE |
4 |
0.167 |
|
7 |
quagmireweathercentral |
PVD ABE |
2 |
0.105 |
|
8 |
herb@maws |
PVD ABE |
2 |
0.091 |
|
9 |
iralibov |
ABE RDU |
2 |
0.080 |
|
10 |
Roger Smith |
RDU |
1 |
0.040 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Roger Smith |
BGR PWM CON ALB BGM ISP
JFK ABE MDT EWR |
10 |
0.400 |
|
2 |
weatherT |
MDT ACY BWI IAD DCA RIC |
6 |
0.250 |
|
3 |
iralibov |
BTV BDR BDL MDT PHL EWR |
6 |
0.240 |
|
4 |
quagmireweathercentral |
MDT SBY ORF RDU |
4 |
0.211 |
|
5 |
TQ |
BOS HYA ORH PVD SBY |
5 |
0.192 |
|
6 |
dryslot |
MDT |
1 |
0.053 |
|
7 |
Brad Yehl |
MDT |
1 |
0.045 |
|
7 |
herb@maws |
MDT |
1 |
0.045 |
|
7 |
snocat918 |
MDT |
1 |
0.045 |
|
10 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CAR |
1 |
0.043 |
Consensus forecast best @ BGR…BOS…ORH…ISP
MAX forecast best @
MAX forecast less than observed @
MIN forecasts best @ BTV…BDR…BDL…ALB…ORF
MIN forecasts more than observed @
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins
New Daily Records:
None
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
BOS |
5.1 |
25.5 |
|
2 |
HYA |
5.0 |
|
|
3 |
CAR |
4.2 |
22.1 |
|
4 |
BGR |
4.0 |
30.8 |
|
5 |
PVD |
3.7 |
28.5 |
|
6 |
ORH |
2.2 |
24.4 |
|
7 |
PWM |
2.0 |
14.3 |
|
8 |
ISP |
1.5 |
15.0 |
|
9 |
CON |
0.6 |
20.0 |
|
10 |
BGM |
0.3 |
|
|
11 |
ABE |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
BDL |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
BDR |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
BTV |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
BWI |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
IAD |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
MDT |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
ORF |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
RDU |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
SBY |
0.05 |
|
|
|
ACY |
-
|
|
|
|
ALB |
-
|
|
|
|
DCA |
-
|
|
|
|
EWR |
-
|
|
|
|
JFK |
- |
|
|
|
PHL |
-
|
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
29.10 |
22.6 |