Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #3 to see the complete station forecast verification table.

 

In the table...

Yellow cells indicate the best score in category. 

Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.

 

Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.

 

SUMSQ:  sum of square errors

STP:  storm total precipitation

TAE:  total absolute error
AAE:  average absolute error

 

Final Standings - all Forecasters

Forecaster

Class

4casts

Sum Square

STP

TOTAL Absolute

AVG Absolute

 

 

 

 

 

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

289.65

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPROV over AVG

Rank

Forecaster

dryslot

Intern

24

570.8

-0.938

54.7%

1

  260.80

28.85

-0.485

46.2%

7

71.25

-1.301

42.7%

1

2.97

-1.411

44.2%

1

85.2%

1.550

21.1%

1

dryslot

iralibov

Senior

23

692.3

-0.773

45.0%

2

  295.60

5.95

-0.933

88.9%

1

97.45

-0.660

21.7%

3

4.24

-0.649

20.3%

3

79.3%

0.935

12.7%

3

iralibov

Roger Smith

Senior

23

768.8

-0.668

38.9%

3

  335.55

45.90

-0.152

14.5%

10

101.40

-0.563

18.5%

4

4.41

-0.546

17.1%

5

80.9%

1.103

15.0%

2

Roger Smith

flame_boy

Rookie

22

825.0

-0.592

34.5%

4

  249.91

39.74

-0.272

25.9%

8

85.28

-0.958

31.4%

2

3.88

-0.866

27.1%

2

77.2%

0.717

9.7%

5

flame_boy

Brad Yehl

Journeyman

24

861.9

-0.541

31.5%

5

  239.95

49.70

-0.077

7.4%

11

103.40

-0.514

16.9%

5

4.31

-0.606

19.0%

4

79.1%

0.916

12.4%

4

Brad Yehl

herb@maws

Senior

23

880.9

-0.515

30.0%

6

  268.80

20.85

-0.642

61.1%

3

109.25

-0.371

12.2%

7

4.75

-0.341

10.7%

7

73.9%

0.364

4.9%

8

herb@maws

donsutherland1

Chief

23

959.3

-0.409

23.8%

7

  244.15

45.50

-0.160

15.2%

9

116.00

-0.205

6.7%

8

5.04

-0.164

5.1%

8

76.8%

0.675

9.2%

6

donsutherland1

Shillelagh

Senior

24

1136.2

-0.167

9.7%

8

  215.15

74.50

0.407

-38.8%

13

108.40

-0.391

12.8%

6

4.52

-0.481

15.0%

6

74.6%

0.440

6.0%

7

Shillelagh

weatherT

Senior

24

1219.8

-0.053

3.1%

9

  345.20

55.55

0.037

-3.5%

12

135.85

0.281

-9.2%

12

5.66

0.207

-6.5%

11

68.9%

-0.157

-2.1%

9

weatherT

Mitchel Volk

Senior

23

1227.7

-0.042

2.5%

10

  270.00

19.65

-0.665

63.4%

2

124.45

0.002

-0.1%

10

5.41

0.057

-1.8%

10

62.9%

-0.777

-10.6%

11

Mitchel Volk

snocat918

Rookie

22

1230.1

-0.039

2.3%

11

  266.05

23.60

-0.588

56.0%

5

118.40

-0.146

4.8%

9

5.38

0.039

-1.2%

9

64.4%

-0.625

-8.5%

10

snocat918

Snowman

Senior

23

1284.2

0.035

-2.0%

12

  317.50

27.85

-0.505

48.1%

6

135.75

0.279

-9.1%

11

5.90

0.352

-11.0%

12

61.7%

-0.907

-12.3%

13

Snowman

Donald Rosenfeld

Senior

24

1488.5

0.313

-18.3%

13

  311.50

21.85

-0.622

59.3%

4

158.95

0.847

-27.8%

14

6.62

0.785

-24.6%

14

55.2%

-1.588

-21.6%

14

Donald Rosenfeld

TQ

Senior

24

2094.1

1.139

-66.4%

14

  151.55

138.10

1.651

-157.3%

14

147.50

0.566

-18.6%

13

6.15

0.498

-15.6%

13

62.6%

-0.815

-11.1%

12

TQ

quagmireweathercentral

Rookie

24

3641.9

3.251

-189.3%

15

  497.00

207.35

3.005

-286.4%

15

252.35

3.135

-102.9%

15

10.51

3.124

-97.8%

15

52.9%

-1.829

-24.9%

15

quagmireweathercentral

Forecast Parameters

350

Error

Error Z

% MPRV

Rank

STP

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

Error

Error Z

%MPRV

Rank

RSQ

RSQ Z

%MPRV

Rank

Forecast Parameters

MIN

22

571

-0.938

-189.3%

1

151.55

5.95

-0.933

-286.4%

1

71.2

-1.301

-102.9%

1

2.97

-1.411

-97.8%

1

52.9%

-1.829

-24.9%

      1

MIN

MAX

24

3642

3.251

54.7%

15

497.00

207.35

3.005

88.9%

15

252.4

3.135

42.7%

15

10.51

3.124

44.2%

15

85.2%

1.550

21.1%

    15

MAX

AVG

23

1259

0.000

0.0%

8

284.58

53.66

0.000

0.0%

8

124.4

0.000

0.0%

8

5.32

0.000

0.0%

8

70.4%

0.000

0.0%

      8

AVG

Median

23

1136

-0.167

9.7%

8

268.80

39.74

-0.272

25.9%

8

116.0

-0.205

6.7%

8

5.04

-0.164

5.1%

8

73.9%

0.364

4.9%

      8

Median

Mode

24

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mode

STD

1

733

1.000

58.2%

4.3

73.96

51.14

1.000

95.3%

4.3

40.8

1.000

32.8%

4.3

1.66

1.000

31.3%

4.3

9.6%

1.000

13.6%

   4.3

STD

25%

23

843

-0.567

0.1%

5

247.03

22.72

-0.605

1.9%

5

102.4

-0.538

-9.2%

5

4.36

-0.576

-8.7%

5

62.8%

-0.796

-10.8%

      5

 

75%

24

1257

-0.002

33.0%

12

314.50

52.63

-0.020

57.7%

12

135.8

0.280

17.7%

12

5.78

0.279

18.0%

12

78.2%

0.816

11.1%

    12

 

 

Perfect Forecasts

Rank

Forecaster

'Perfect Forecast' Stations

bat avg

1

Brad Yehl

SBY

0.042

1

Shillelagh

SBY

0.042

3

Donald Rosenfeld

 

0.000

3

donsutherland1

 

0.000

3

dryslot

 

0.000

3

flame_boy

 

0.000

3

herb@maws

 

0.000

3

iralibov

 

0.000

3

Mitchel Volk

 

0.000

3

quagmireweathercentral

 

0.000

3

Roger Smith

 

0.000

3

snocat918

 

0.000

3

Snowman

 

0.000

3

TQ

 

0.000

3

weatherT

 

0.000

 

Best Station Forecasts  (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Lowest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

snocat918

CAR PWM ORH ABE

4

0.182

2

Shillelagh

HYA JFK ABE SBY

4

0.167

3

flame_boy

BGR MDT EWR

3

0.136

4

dryslot

CON BOS IAD

3

0.125

5

iralibov

BTV BGM

2

0.087

5

Mitchel Volk

PVD ISP

2

0.087

7

Brad Yehl

ACY SBY

2

0.083

7

TQ

HYA ALB

2

0.083

9

Roger Smith

BDL

1

0.043

9

herb@maws

IAD

1

0.043

9

Snowman

PHL

1

0.043

12

Donald Rosenfeld

BDR

1

0.042

13

donsutherland1

 

0

0.000

13

weatherT

 

0

0.000

13

quagmireweathercentral

 

0

0.000

 

Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)

Rank

Forecaster

'Highest Error' Stations

TOT

bat avg

1

quagmireweathercentral

BTV HYA PVD BDL ALB BGM ABE ACY EWR BWI SBY

11

0.458

2

Donald Rosenfeld

JFK PHL BWI IAD DCA

5

0.208

2

TQ

BGR CON ORH BDR ISP

5

0.208

4

Mitchel Volk

BGR PWM

2

0.087

4

Snowman

CAR ORH

2

0.087

6

weatherT

BOS MDT

2

0.083

7

donsutherland1

BGR

1

0.043

8

Brad Yehl

 

0

0.000

8

dryslot

 

0

0.000

8

flame_boy

 

0

0.000

8

herb@maws

 

0

0.000

8

iralibov

 

0

0.000

8

Roger Smith

 

0

0.000

8

Shillelagh

 

0

0.000

8

snocat918

 

0

0.000

 

 

Consensus forecast best @ CAR…BTV…BOS…ORH

MAX forecast best @ PWM…BDR…ISP

MAX forecast less than observed @ PWM…BDR…ISP

MIN forecasts best @ HYA…ALB…BGM…MDT…PHL

MIN forecasts more than observed @ ALB

 

 

Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores

 

*******************************

Verification:

Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins

 

Rank

Station

 Snow

 SN:H2O

        1

PWM

31.9

       12.7

        2

BDR

29.8

       11.5

        3

ORH

28.7

       11.4

        4

ISP

27.8

 

        5

BOS

24.9

       10.9

        6

CON

24.0

       16.9

        7

BDL

22.3

       11.0

        8

BGR

19.6

       43.6

        9

PVD

17.5

       10.7

      10

EWR

10.0

 

      11

BTV

9.8

       18.5

      12

ALB

7.2

       12.0

      13

HYA

7.0

 

      14

BGM

6.9

       11.7

      15

JFK

6.4

 

      16

ABE

5.7

       14.6

      17

CAR

5.5

       15.7

      18

ACY

1.7

 

      19

PHL

1.4

       12.7

      20

IAD

0.3

 

      21

MDT

0.2

 

      22

SBY

0.05

 

 

BWI

0.0

 

  

DCA

        -  

 

 

RIC

        -  

 

 

ORF

        -  

 

 

RDU

        -  

 

 

TOT

  288.65

       15.3

 

New Daily Records:
Six new daily records.
Double-header at MacArthur airport

FRI...08-FEB-13
ISP - 16.7" (6"; 1994)
ORH - 15.2" (7"; 1945)
BDL - 13.4" (?"; 1945)

SAT...09-FEB-13
BGR - 16.2" (8.6"; 1969)
BOS - 14.8" (12.4"; 1994)
ISP - 11.1" (2"; 1994)