Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #2 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total
absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
65.90 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
21 |
77.4 |
-1.049 |
55.3% |
1 |
52.75 |
13.15 |
-0.568 |
43.7% |
5 |
30.45 |
-1.307 |
36.2% |
1 |
1.45 |
-1.187 |
30.0% |
2 |
69.4% |
1.402 |
73.5% |
1 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
24 |
78.3 |
-1.040 |
54.8% |
2 |
55.75 |
10.15 |
-0.735 |
56.6% |
4 |
31.05 |
-1.261 |
34.9% |
2 |
1.29 |
-1.486 |
37.6% |
1 |
64.7% |
1.181 |
61.9% |
2 |
Brad Yehl |
|
snocat918 |
Rookie |
23 |
104.5 |
-0.752 |
39.6% |
3 |
58.35 |
7.55 |
-0.880 |
67.7% |
3 |
39.55 |
-0.618 |
17.1% |
5 |
1.72 |
-0.673 |
17.0% |
4 |
48.4% |
0.401 |
21.0% |
5 |
snocat918 |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
22 |
112.6 |
-0.663 |
34.9% |
4 |
64.80 |
1.10 |
-1.239 |
95.3% |
1 |
40.20 |
-0.569 |
15.7% |
6 |
1.83 |
-0.467 |
11.8% |
6 |
43.2% |
0.156 |
8.2% |
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
answered7 |
Intern |
22 |
112.7 |
-0.662 |
34.9% |
5 |
73.30 |
7.40 |
-0.888 |
68.3% |
2 |
38.50 |
-0.697 |
19.3% |
4 |
1.75 |
-0.615 |
15.5% |
5 |
50.2% |
0.487 |
25.5% |
4 |
answered7 |
|
TQ |
Senior |
22 |
132.7 |
-0.443 |
23.3% |
6 |
39.25 |
26.65 |
0.183 |
-14.0% |
8 |
37.15 |
-0.800 |
22.1% |
3 |
1.69 |
-0.732 |
18.5% |
3 |
47.0% |
0.335 |
17.6% |
7 |
TQ |
|
Iralibov |
Senior |
25 |
141.4 |
-0.348 |
18.3% |
7 |
96.50 |
30.60 |
0.403 |
-31.0% |
9 |
51.40 |
0.280 |
-7.7% |
8 |
2.06 |
-0.031 |
0.8% |
7 |
48.1% |
0.387 |
20.3% |
6 |
Iralibov |
|
kevinmyattwx |
Rookie |
22 |
168.1 |
-0.054 |
2.9% |
8 |
80.00 |
14.10 |
-0.516 |
39.7% |
6 |
53.70 |
0.454 |
-12.6% |
9 |
2.44 |
0.704 |
-17.8% |
9 |
24.1% |
-0.758 |
-39.7% |
9 |
kevinmyattwx |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
23 |
194.6 |
0.236 |
-12.4% |
9 |
44.40 |
21.50 |
-0.104 |
8.0% |
7 |
50.70 |
0.227 |
-6.3% |
7 |
2.20 |
0.253 |
-6.4% |
8 |
11.2% |
-1.375 |
-72.1% |
11 |
herb@maws |
|
defman27 |
Senior |
23 |
285.1 |
1.229 |
-64.7% |
10 |
27.80 |
38.10 |
0.820 |
-63.1% |
10 |
60.30 |
0.953 |
-26.4% |
10 |
2.62 |
1.049 |
-26.5% |
10 |
0.0% |
-1.908 |
-100.0% |
12 |
defman27 |
|
quagmireweathercentral |
Rookie |
24 |
306.0 |
1.458 |
-76.8% |
11 |
110.50 |
44.60 |
1.182 |
-90.9% |
11 |
72.00 |
1.839 |
-50.9% |
12 |
3.00 |
1.771 |
-44.8% |
12 |
16.8% |
-1.104 |
-57.9% |
10 |
quagmireweathercentral |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
24 |
363.4 |
2.088 |
-110.0% |
12 |
131.40 |
65.50 |
2.344 |
-180.3% |
12 |
67.50 |
1.499 |
-41.5% |
11 |
2.81 |
1.414 |
-35.7% |
11 |
56.6% |
0.795 |
41.7% |
3 |
Roger Smith |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
275 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
21 |
77 |
-1.049 |
-110.0% |
1 |
27.80 |
1.10 |
-1.239 |
-180.3% |
1 |
30.5 |
-1.307 |
-50.9% |
1 |
1.29 |
-1.486 |
-44.8% |
1 |
0.0% |
-1.908 |
-100.0% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
25 |
363 |
2.088 |
55.3% |
12 |
131.40 |
65.50 |
2.344 |
95.3% |
12 |
72.0 |
1.839 |
36.2% |
12 |
3.00 |
1.771 |
37.6% |
12 |
69.4% |
1.402 |
73.5% |
12 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
23 |
173 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
69.57 |
23.37 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
47.7 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
2.07 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
40.0% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
23 |
137 |
-0.395 |
20.8% |
7 |
61.58 |
17.80 |
-0.310 |
23.8% |
7 |
45.4 |
-0.171 |
4.7% |
7 |
1.94 |
-0.249 |
6.3% |
7 |
47.5% |
0.361 |
18.9% |
7 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
91 |
1.000 |
52.7% |
3.5 |
29.25 |
17.97 |
1.000 |
76.9% |
3.5 |
13.2 |
1.000 |
27.7% |
3.5 |
0.52 |
1.000 |
25.3% |
3.5 |
21.0% |
1.000 |
52.4% |
3.5 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
22 |
111 |
-0.686 |
-25.5% |
4 |
50.66 |
9.50 |
-0.772 |
-39.0% |
4 |
38.2 |
-0.723 |
-16.0% |
4 |
1.71 |
-0.688 |
-20.0% |
4 |
22.3% |
-0.844 |
-44.3% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
24 |
217 |
0.484 |
36.1% |
9 |
84.13 |
32.47 |
0.507 |
59.3% |
9 |
55.3 |
0.579 |
20.0% |
9 |
2.49 |
0.790 |
17.4% |
9 |
51.8% |
0.564 |
29.6% |
9 |
|
|
---
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Roger Smith |
HYA DCA |
0.083 |
|
2 |
donsutherland1 |
DCA |
0.048 |
|
3 |
kevinmyattwx |
ALB |
0.045 |
|
3 |
TQ |
DCA |
0.045 |
|
5 |
herb@maws |
HYA |
0.043 |
|
6 |
Brad Yehl |
HYA |
0.042 |
|
6 |
quagmireweathercentral |
BTV |
0.042 |
|
8 |
answered7 |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
defman27 |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
Iralibov |
|
0.000 |
|
8 |
snocat918 |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
answered7 |
BGR CON BDL PHL EWR |
5 |
0.227 |
|
2 |
TQ |
JFK ABE MDT DCA |
4 |
0.182 |
|
3 |
herb@maws |
BOS HYA ABE MDT |
4 |
0.174 |
|
4 |
quagmireweathercentral |
BTV ORH PVD BGM |
4 |
0.167 |
|
5 |
Brad Yehl |
HYA BDR IAD |
3 |
0.125 |
|
5 |
Roger Smith |
HYA MDT DCA |
3 |
0.125 |
|
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BGR BWI |
2 |
0.091 |
|
8 |
snocat918 |
PWM ISP |
2 |
0.087 |
|
9 |
donsutherland1 |
DCA |
1 |
0.048 |
|
10 |
kevinmyattwx |
ALB |
1 |
0.045 |
|
11 |
Iralibov |
BDL |
1 |
0.040 |
|
12 |
defman27 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
quagmireweathercentral |
HYA ISP JFK ABE MDT PHL
ACY BWI IAD DCA SBY RIC |
12 |
0.500 |
|
2 |
defman27 |
PWM BTV ORH BDL ALB BGM |
6 |
0.261 |
|
3 |
Roger Smith |
CAR BGR CON BOS ISP EWR |
6 |
0.250 |
|
4 |
kevinmyattwx |
MDT BWI |
2 |
0.091 |
|
5 |
Iralibov |
RIC RDU |
2 |
0.080 |
|
6 |
answered7 |
BDR |
1 |
0.045 |
|
6 |
TQ |
PVD |
1 |
0.045 |
|
8 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
8 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
8 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
8 |
herb@maws |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
8 |
snocat918 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ BGR…BDR…ALB…ABE
MAX forecast best @ BTV…ORH…PVD…BGM
MAX forecast less than observed @ none
MIN forecasts best @ ISP…JFK…PHL
MIN forecasts more than observed @ PHL
Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins
New Daily Records:
SAT…29-DEC-12
BDR - 3.5" (3.1"; 1959)
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
ORH |
9.3 |
16.3 |
|
2 |
PVD |
7.6 |
10.0 |
|
3 |
BDL |
6.8 |
15.1 |
|
4 |
PWM |
6.7 |
24.8 |
|
5 |
BGM |
6.4 |
13.6 |
|
6 |
ALB |
4.0 |
16.0 |
|
6 |
BTV |
4.0 |
12.9 |
|
8 |
BDR |
3.5 |
9.2 |
|
9 |
ABE |
3.3 |
13.8 |
|
10 |
CON |
2.6 |
10.0 |
|
11 |
MDT |
2.5 |
10.0 |
|
12 |
BGR |
2.2 |
24.4 |
|
12 |
BOS |
2.2 |
|
|
14 |
EWR |
1.5 |
|
|
15 |
HYA |
1.0 |
|
|
16 |
IAD |
0.9 |
10.0 |
|
17 |
ISP |
0.5 |
|
|
18 |
BWI |
0.4 |
|
|
18 |
JFK |
0.4 |
|
|
20 |
DCA |
0.05 |
|
|
20 |
PHL |
0.05 |
|
|
|
ACY |
-
|
|
|
|
CAR |
-
|
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
|
SBY |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
65.9 |
14.3 |