Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
81.75 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
dryslot |
Intern |
22 |
113.0 |
-0.887 |
55.5% |
1 |
87.01 |
5.26 |
-0.732 |
71.2% |
4 |
39.64 |
-0.550 |
18.4% |
6 |
1.80 |
-0.589 |
19.1% |
5 |
73.6% |
1.112 |
16.5% |
4 |
dryslot |
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
21 |
119.4 |
-0.846 |
52.9% |
2 |
67.96 |
13.79 |
-0.251 |
24.4% |
7 |
36.79 |
-0.725 |
24.3% |
3 |
1.75 |
-0.658 |
21.4% |
3 |
74.6% |
1.219 |
18.1% |
2 |
herb@maws |
|
Brad Yehl |
Journeyman |
22 |
129.6 |
-0.782 |
48.9% |
3 |
79.10 |
2.65 |
-0.879 |
85.5% |
3 |
35.75 |
-0.789 |
26.5% |
2 |
1.62 |
-0.834 |
27.1% |
2 |
74.4% |
1.190 |
17.7% |
3 |
Brad Yehl |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
22 |
140.9 |
-0.711 |
44.5% |
4 |
80.76 |
0.99 |
-0.972 |
94.6% |
1 |
33.99 |
-0.896 |
30.1% |
1 |
1.55 |
-0.944 |
30.7% |
1 |
72.8% |
1.020 |
15.2% |
5 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
22 |
168.3 |
-0.538 |
33.6% |
5 |
61.61 |
20.14 |
0.107 |
-10.4% |
9 |
39.04 |
-0.587 |
19.7% |
5 |
1.77 |
-0.627 |
20.4% |
4 |
65.1% |
0.209 |
3.1% |
6 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Mitchel volk |
Senior |
20 |
203.2 |
-0.318 |
19.9% |
6 |
101.01 |
19.26 |
0.057 |
-5.5% |
8 |
44.54 |
-0.249 |
8.4% |
7 |
2.23 |
-0.002 |
0.1% |
9 |
75.5% |
1.315 |
19.6% |
1 |
Mitchel volk |
|
snowman |
Senior |
23 |
203.7 |
-0.315 |
19.7% |
7 |
75.75 |
6.00 |
-0.690 |
67.1% |
5 |
48.00 |
-0.037 |
1.2% |
10 |
2.09 |
-0.195 |
6.3% |
7 |
52.2% |
-1.165 |
-17.3% |
12 |
snowman |
|
Roger Smith |
Senior |
22 |
213.4 |
-0.254 |
15.9% |
8 |
80.55 |
1.20 |
-0.961 |
93.4% |
2 |
47.50 |
-0.068 |
2.3% |
9 |
2.16 |
-0.096 |
3.1% |
8 |
56.2% |
-0.741 |
-11.0% |
8 |
Roger Smith |
|
Shillelagh |
Senior |
21 |
223.8 |
-0.188 |
11.8% |
9 |
73.16 |
8.59 |
-0.544 |
52.9% |
6 |
38.79 |
-0.602 |
20.2% |
4 |
1.85 |
-0.527 |
17.1% |
6 |
61.4% |
-0.185 |
-2.8% |
7 |
Shillelagh |
|
weatherT |
Senior |
21 |
246.5 |
-0.045 |
2.8% |
10 |
61.46 |
20.29 |
0.115 |
-11.2% |
10 |
46.99 |
-0.099 |
3.3% |
8 |
2.24 |
0.013 |
-0.4% |
10 |
50.9% |
-1.302 |
-19.4% |
13 |
weatherT |
|
TQ |
Senior |
22 |
408.5 |
0.975 |
-61.0% |
11 |
116.20 |
34.45 |
0.913 |
-88.8% |
11 |
60.85 |
0.751 |
-25.2% |
11 |
2.77 |
0.743 |
-24.1% |
11 |
56.1% |
-0.752 |
-11.2% |
9 |
TQ |
|
Snowstorm |
Rookie |
23 |
441.4 |
1.182 |
-74.0% |
12 |
123.10 |
41.35 |
1.302 |
-126.6% |
12 |
63.75 |
0.929 |
-31.1% |
12 |
2.77 |
0.751 |
-24.4% |
12 |
53.9% |
-0.991 |
-14.7% |
11 |
Snowstorm |
|
snocat918 |
Rookie |
22 |
686.6 |
2.728 |
-170.6% |
13 |
145.01 |
63.26 |
2.536 |
-246.6% |
13 |
96.25 |
2.922 |
-98.0% |
13 |
4.37 |
2.966 |
-96.3% |
13 |
54.4% |
-0.930 |
-13.8% |
10 |
snocat918 |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
283 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
20 |
113 |
-0.887 |
-170.6% |
1 |
61.46 |
0.99 |
-0.972 |
-246.6% |
1 |
34.0 |
-0.896 |
-98.0% |
1 |
1.55 |
-0.944 |
-96.3% |
1 |
50.9% |
-1.302 |
-19.4% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
23 |
687 |
2.728 |
55.5% |
13 |
145.01 |
63.26 |
2.536 |
94.6% |
13 |
96.2 |
2.922 |
30.1% |
13 |
4.37 |
2.966 |
30.7% |
13 |
75.5% |
1.315 |
19.6% |
13 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
22 |
254 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
88.67 |
18.25 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
48.6 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
2.23 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
63.2% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
22 |
204 |
-0.315 |
19.7% |
7 |
80.55 |
13.79 |
-0.251 |
24.4% |
7 |
44.5 |
-0.249 |
8.4% |
7 |
2.09 |
-0.195 |
6.3% |
7 |
61.4% |
-0.185 |
-2.8% |
7 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
159 |
1.000 |
62.6% |
3.7 |
24.50 |
17.75 |
1.000 |
97.2% |
3.7 |
16.3 |
1.000 |
33.5% |
3.7 |
0.72 |
1.000 |
32.5% |
3.7 |
9.4% |
1.000 |
14.9% |
3.7 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
21 |
141 |
-0.711 |
2.8% |
4 |
73.16 |
5.26 |
-0.732 |
-11.2% |
4 |
38.8 |
-0.602 |
1.2% |
4 |
1.77 |
-0.627 |
-0.4% |
4 |
54.4% |
-0.930 |
-13.8% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
22 |
247 |
-0.045 |
44.5% |
10 |
101.01 |
20.29 |
0.115 |
71.2% |
10 |
48.0 |
-0.037 |
20.2% |
10 |
2.24 |
0.013 |
20.4% |
10 |
73.6% |
1.112 |
16.5% |
10 |
|
|
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total
absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
TQ |
ISP JFK PHL BWI |
0.182 |
|
2 |
Brad Yehl |
PHL |
0.045 |
|
2 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BTV |
0.045 |
|
2 |
snocat918 |
ORH |
0.045 |
|
5 |
snowman |
BWI |
0.043 |
|
5 |
Snowstorm |
BDR |
0.043 |
|
7 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0.000 |
|
7 |
dryslot |
|
0.000 |
|
7 |
herb@maws |
|
0.000 |
|
7 |
Mitchel volk |
|
0.000 |
|
7 |
Roger Smith |
|
0.000 |
|
7 |
Shillelagh |
|
0.000 |
|
7 |
weatherT |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
TQ |
ISP JFK PHL EWR BWI |
5 |
0.227 |
|
2 |
Snowstorm |
BDR BDL EWR DCA |
4 |
0.174 |
|
3 |
Brad Yehl |
BOS ABE PHL |
3 |
0.136 |
|
4 |
snowman |
CON PVD BWI |
3 |
0.130 |
|
5 |
Shillelagh |
BOS ALB |
2 |
0.095 |
|
5 |
weatherT |
MDT EWR |
2 |
0.095 |
|
7 |
dryslot |
CAR BGM |
2 |
0.091 |
|
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BTV IAD |
2 |
0.091 |
|
9 |
Mitchel volk |
PWM |
1 |
0.050 |
|
10 |
herb@maws |
ALB |
1 |
0.048 |
|
11 |
Roger Smith |
BGR |
1 |
0.045 |
|
11 |
snocat918 |
ORH |
1 |
0.045 |
|
13 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
snocat918 |
CAR BDR BDL BGM ABE MDT
PHL BWI IAD DCA |
10 |
0.455 |
|
2 |
snowman |
BTV HYA ISP JFK ACY EWR |
6 |
0.261 |
|
3 |
Mitchel volk |
CON BOS PVD BDR BDL |
5 |
0.250 |
|
4 |
weatherT |
PWM ORH BDR BDL |
4 |
0.190 |
|
5 |
Snowstorm |
BGR ABE ACY SBY |
4 |
0.174 |
|
6 |
herb@maws |
BDR |
1 |
0.048 |
|
7 |
dryslot |
RIC |
1 |
0.045 |
|
7 |
TQ |
ALB |
1 |
0.045 |
|
9 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
Roger Smith |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
Shillelagh |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ ORH…ALB…MDT
MAX forecast best @ PWM…BDR…
MAX forecast less than observed @ none
MIN forecasts best @ CAR…BGR…BGM.
MIN forecasts more than observed @ CAR…BGR
Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins
New Daily Records:
THU...27-DEC-12
PWM - 11.6" (8.8"; 1894)
CAR - 6.2" (6.2"; 2010)
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
BTV |
15.0 |
17.9 |
|
2 |
PWM |
11.6 |
8.6 |
|
3 |
ALB |
7.8 |
8.2 |
|
4 |
BGR |
7.0 |
25.9 |
|
5 |
CAR |
6.8 |
15.1 |
|
6 |
BGM |
6.3 |
11.9 |
|
7 |
CON |
6.0 |
8.0 |
|
7 |
ORH |
6.0 |
|
|
9 |
BDL |
5.2 |
|
|
10 |
BDR |
2.5 |
|
|
11 |
MDT |
2.2 |
|
|
12 |
ABE |
1.3 |
|
|
13 |
IAD |
1.1 |
|
|
13 |
PVD |
1.1 |
|
|
15 |
BWI |
1.0 |
|
|
16 |
EWR |
0.4 |
|
|
17 |
DCA |
0.2 |
|
|
18 |
BOS |
0.1 |
|
|
19 |
ISP |
0.05 |
|
|
19 |
JFK |
0.05 |
|
|
19 |
PHL |
0.05 |
|
|
|
ACY |
-
|
|
|
|
HYA |
-
|
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
- |
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
|
SBY |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
81.8 |
13.7 |