Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #1 to see the complete station forecast verification table.
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL Absolute |
AVG Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over AVG |
Rank |
61.20 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
herb@maws |
Senior |
24 |
35.2 |
-1.012 |
52.6% |
1 |
67.00 |
5.80 |
-0.917 |
56.2% |
2 |
19.60 |
-1.171 |
30.6% |
1 |
0.82 |
-1.258 |
28.7% |
1 |
76.3% |
1.011 |
37.9% |
2 |
herb@maws |
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
24 |
39.5 |
-0.900 |
46.7% |
2 |
49.65 |
11.55 |
-0.209 |
12.8% |
4 |
19.75 |
-1.151 |
30.1% |
2 |
0.82 |
-1.234 |
28.2% |
2 |
76.9% |
1.044 |
39.1% |
1 |
donsutherland1 |
|
Brad Yehl |
Intern |
24 |
45.2 |
-0.752 |
39.1% |
3 |
59.35 |
1.85 |
-1.404 |
86.0% |
1 |
23.65 |
-0.623 |
16.3% |
3 |
0.99 |
-0.613 |
14.0% |
3 |
67.3% |
0.578 |
21.7% |
3 |
Brad Yehl |
|
weatherT |
Senior |
24 |
61.2 |
-0.336 |
17.4% |
4 |
47.91 |
13.29 |
0.007 |
-0.4% |
5 |
27.49 |
-0.102 |
2.7% |
5 |
1.15 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
60.4% |
0.246 |
9.2% |
5 |
weatherT |
|
TQ |
Senior |
24 |
70.1 |
-0.104 |
5.4% |
5 |
46.70 |
14.50 |
0.155 |
-9.5% |
6 |
25.50 |
-0.372 |
9.7% |
4 |
1.06 |
-0.318 |
7.3% |
4 |
54.9% |
-0.021 |
-0.8% |
6 |
TQ |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
24 |
73.4 |
-0.019 |
1.0% |
6 |
78.50 |
17.30 |
0.501 |
-30.7% |
7 |
31.10 |
0.386 |
-10.1% |
6 |
1.30 |
0.574 |
-13.1% |
6 |
61.4% |
0.295 |
11.1% |
4 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
25 |
113.1 |
1.012 |
-52.6% |
7 |
71.87 |
10.67 |
-0.317 |
19.4% |
3 |
38.75 |
1.422 |
-37.2% |
7 |
1.55 |
1.545 |
-35.3% |
8 |
32.3% |
-1.110 |
-41.6% |
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
Roger Smith |
Journeyman |
27 |
155.4 |
2.110 |
-109.6% |
8 |
30.25 |
30.95 |
2.184 |
-133.8% |
8 |
40.15 |
1.611 |
-42.1% |
8 |
1.49 |
1.305 |
-29.8% |
7 |
13.0% |
-2.043 |
-76.6% |
8 |
Roger Smith |
|
Forecast Parameters |
196 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
24 |
35 |
-1.012 |
-109.6% |
1 |
30.25 |
1.85 |
-1.404 |
-133.8% |
1 |
19.6 |
-1.171 |
-42.1% |
1 |
0.82 |
-1.258 |
-35.3% |
1 |
13.0% |
-2.043 |
-76.6% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
155 |
2.110 |
52.6% |
8 |
78.50 |
30.95 |
2.184 |
86.0% |
8 |
40.2 |
1.611 |
30.6% |
8 |
1.55 |
1.545 |
28.7% |
8 |
76.9% |
1.044 |
39.1% |
8 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
25 |
74 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
56.40 |
13.24 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
28.2 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
1.15 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
55.3% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
5 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
24 |
66 |
-0.220 |
11.4% |
5 |
54.50 |
12.42 |
-0.101 |
6.2% |
5 |
26.5 |
-0.237 |
6.2% |
5 |
1.10 |
-0.159 |
3.6% |
5 |
60.9% |
0.271 |
10.1% |
5 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
39 |
1.000 |
51.9% |
2.3 |
14.77 |
8.11 |
1.000 |
61.3% |
2.3 |
7.4 |
1.000 |
26.1% |
2.3 |
0.26 |
1.000 |
22.8% |
2.3 |
20.7% |
1.000 |
37.5% |
2.3 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
24 |
44 |
-0.789 |
-12.4% |
3 |
47.61 |
9.45 |
-0.467 |
-14.8% |
3 |
22.7 |
-0.755 |
-16.9% |
3 |
0.94 |
-0.768 |
-17.3% |
3 |
49.2% |
-0.293 |
-11.0% |
3 |
|
|
|
75% |
24 |
83 |
0.239 |
41.0% |
6 |
68.22 |
15.20 |
0.242 |
28.6% |
6 |
33.0 |
0.645 |
19.7% |
6 |
1.34 |
0.757 |
17.5% |
6 |
69.5% |
0.687 |
25.7% |
6 |
|
|
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
donsutherland1 |
PWM CON BGM |
0.125 |
|
2 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
ALB |
0.040 |
|
3 |
Roger Smith |
BGR |
0.037 |
|
4 |
herb@maws |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Brad Yehl |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
weatherT |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
TQ |
|
0.000 |
|
4 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
donsutherland1 |
CAR PWM CON BTV BDL BGM
MDT BWI IAD SBY |
10 |
0.417 |
|
2 |
TQ |
CAR BOS ORH BDL JFK SBY |
6 |
0.250 |
|
3 |
herb@maws |
CAR HYA PVD ACY SBY |
5 |
0.208 |
|
4 |
Brad Yehl |
CAR PHL DCA SBY |
4 |
0.167 |
|
4 |
weatherT |
CAR ABE BWI SBY |
4 |
0.167 |
|
6 |
Mitchel Volk |
BDR ISP ACY |
3 |
0.125 |
|
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
CAR ALB SBY |
3 |
0.120 |
|
8 |
Roger Smith |
BGR EWR |
2 |
0.074 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Roger Smith |
BTV HYA ORH PVD BDR BGM
ISP SBY RIC ORF RDU |
11 |
0.407 |
|
2 |
Mitchel Volk |
CAR BGR CON BOS BDL ALB
ABE |
7 |
0.292 |
|
3 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BTV JFK PHL BWI IAD DCA |
6 |
0.240 |
|
4 |
weatherT |
PWM MDT ACY |
3 |
0.125 |
|
5 |
TQ |
ISP EWR |
2 |
0.083 |
|
6 |
herb@maws |
BDL |
1 |
0.042 |
|
6 |
Brad Yehl |
BTV |
1 |
0.042 |
|
8 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
Consensus forecast best @ BGR…PWM…CON…BOS…BGM…PHL
MAX forecast best @ BTV…HYA…PVD…BDR
MAX forecast less than observed @ HYA…PVD…BDR
MIN forecasts best @ JFK…BWI…IAD
MIN forecasts more than observed @ none
Good association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41…PNS…and F6 bulletins.
The storm-total snowfall for HYA is an estimate derived from
vicinity reports in Barnstable county carried in the BOXPNSBOX bulletin.
Several stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O
reported b/c their liquid totals included mixed precipitation.
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
1 |
HYA |
8.0 |
|
|
2 |
PVD |
7.6 |
18.5 |
|
3 |
BDR |
6.2 |
16.8 |
|
4 |
MDT |
4.50 |
8.8 |
|
5 |
ORH |
4.3 |
13.9 |
|
6 |
ISP |
3.60 |
|
|
7 |
ABE |
3.40 |
|
|
8 |
EWR |
3.30 |
|
|
9 |
BGM |
3.10 |
7.6 |
|
10 |
BOS |
2.9 |
16.1 |
|
11 |
BDL |
2.8 |
12.7 |
|
12 |
PHL |
2.30 |
|
|
13 |
ACY |
1.60 |
|
|
13 |
JFK |
1.60 |
|
|
15 |
ALB |
1.50 |
9.4 |
|
16 |
CON |
1.2 |
9.2 |
|
17 |
BTV |
0.9 |
15.0 |
|
18 |
DCA |
0.70 |
|
|
18 |
PWM |
0.7 |
7.8 |
|
20 |
BWI |
0.4 |
|
|
20 |
IAD |
0.40 |
|
|
22 |
BGR |
0.1 |
|
|
23 |
CAR |
0.1 |
|
|
23 |
SBY |
0.05 |
|
|
|
ORF |
-
|
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
61.2 |
12.3 |
New Daily Records:
Saturday...21-JAN-12
PVD - 7.6" (6.6"; 1976)
BDR - 6.2" (6"; 2001)