Complete Results @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the link to 'Storm Forecasts – Snow Storm #x to see the complete station forecast verification table.
Forecasters:
|
Rookie |
3 |
|
Intern |
1 |
|
Journey |
0 |
|
Senior |
8 |
|
TOT |
12 |
In the table...
Yellow cells indicate the best score in category.
Forecast STP is yellow if within +/- 5% of observed STP.
Blue (Red) cells indicate the top (lower) 25% percentile.
Final Standings - all Forecasters
|
Forecaster |
Class |
4casts |
Sum Square |
STP |
TOTAL
Absolute |
AVG
Absolute |
|
|
|
|
|
|||||||||||||
|
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
93.65 |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPROV over
AVG |
Rank |
Forecaster |
|||
|
donsutherland1 |
Chief |
26 |
132.3 |
-1.129 |
77.8% |
1 |
105.80 |
12.15 |
-1.012 |
75.8% |
1 |
41.25 |
-1.324 |
50.4% |
1 |
1.59 |
-1.327 |
50.5% |
1 |
82.0% |
1.475 |
69.0% |
1 |
donsutherland1 |
|
weatherT |
Intern |
27 |
299.9 |
-0.720 |
49.6% |
2 |
67.25 |
26.40 |
-0.633 |
47.4% |
4 |
56.20 |
-0.852 |
32.4% |
2 |
2.08 |
-0.922 |
35.1% |
2 |
68.2% |
0.870 |
40.7% |
3 |
weatherT |
|
TQ |
Senior |
27 |
342.6 |
-0.616 |
42.4% |
3 |
69.80 |
23.85 |
-0.701 |
52.5% |
3 |
58.65 |
-0.774 |
29.5% |
3 |
2.17 |
-0.847 |
32.3% |
3 |
56.6% |
0.360 |
16.8% |
5 |
TQ |
|
millersville_bauers |
Rookie |
27 |
382.4 |
-0.518 |
35.7% |
4 |
130.20 |
36.55 |
-0.364 |
27.2% |
5 |
82.15 |
-0.033 |
1.2% |
7 |
3.04 |
-0.135 |
5.1% |
6 |
52.7% |
0.185 |
8.7% |
6 |
millersville_bauers |
|
Roger Smith |
Rookie |
27 |
435.4 |
-0.389 |
26.8% |
5 |
139.35 |
45.70 |
-0.120 |
9.0% |
7 |
67.70 |
-0.489 |
18.6% |
4 |
2.51 |
-0.573 |
21.8% |
4 |
76.6% |
1.238 |
57.9% |
2 |
Roger Smith |
|
Donald Rosenfeld |
Senior |
26 |
462.2 |
-0.324 |
22.3% |
6 |
135.75 |
42.10 |
-0.216 |
16.2% |
6 |
72.30 |
-0.344 |
13.1% |
5 |
2.78 |
-0.349 |
13.3% |
5 |
52.2% |
0.162 |
7.6% |
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
Mitchel Volk |
Senior |
25 |
498.8 |
-0.234 |
16.1% |
7 |
155.00 |
61.35 |
0.296 |
-22.2% |
10 |
87.45 |
0.134 |
-5.1% |
10 |
3.50 |
0.238 |
-9.1% |
10 |
60.8% |
0.544 |
25.5% |
4 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
emoran |
Senior |
25 |
559.1 |
-0.087 |
6.0% |
8 |
141.60 |
47.95 |
-0.060 |
4.5% |
8 |
85.95 |
0.087 |
-3.3% |
9 |
3.44 |
0.189 |
-7.2% |
9 |
39.1% |
-0.416 |
-19.4% |
9 |
emoran |
|
snowman |
Senior |
24 |
631.0 |
0.089 |
-6.1% |
9 |
39.51 |
54.14 |
0.104 |
-7.8% |
9 |
74.44 |
-0.276 |
10.5% |
6 |
3.10 |
-0.086 |
3.3% |
7 |
25.7% |
-1.004 |
-46.9% |
10 |
snowman |
|
rcarroll |
Rookie |
27 |
781.1 |
0.455 |
-31.3% |
10 |
113.50 |
19.85 |
-0.808 |
60.5% |
2 |
119.65 |
1.151 |
-43.8% |
11 |
4.43 |
1.003 |
-38.2% |
11 |
0.2% |
-2.128 |
-99.5% |
12 |
rcarroll |
|
ilibov |
Senior |
25 |
804.5 |
0.512 |
-35.3% |
11 |
164.25 |
70.60 |
0.542 |
-40.6% |
11 |
84.70 |
0.048 |
-1.8% |
8 |
3.39 |
0.148 |
-5.6% |
8 |
45.4% |
-0.137 |
-6.4% |
8 |
ilibov |
|
Raven |
Senior |
26 |
1807.4 |
2.960 |
-203.9% |
12 |
255.70 |
162.05 |
2.973 |
-222.7% |
12 |
167.85 |
2.672 |
-101.8% |
12 |
6.46 |
2.660 |
-101.3% |
12 |
22.4% |
-1.150 |
-53.8% |
11 |
Raven |
|
Forecast
Parameters |
312 |
Error |
Error Z |
% MPRV |
Rank |
STP |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Error |
Error Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
RSQ |
RSQ Z |
%MPRV |
Rank |
Forecast
Parameters |
|
|
MIN |
24 |
132 |
-1.129 |
-203.9% |
1 |
39.51 |
12.15 |
-1.012 |
-222.7% |
1 |
41.2 |
-1.324 |
-101.8% |
1 |
1.59 |
-1.327 |
-101.3% |
1 |
0.2% |
-2.128 |
-99.5% |
1 |
MIN |
|
|
MAX |
27 |
1807 |
2.960 |
77.8% |
12 |
255.70 |
162.05 |
2.973 |
75.8% |
12 |
167.9 |
2.672 |
50.4% |
12 |
6.46 |
2.660 |
50.5% |
12 |
82.0% |
1.475 |
69.0% |
12 |
MAX |
|
|
AVG |
26 |
595 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
126.48 |
50.22 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
83.2 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
3.21 |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
48.5% |
0.000 |
0.0% |
7 |
AVG |
|
|
Median |
26 |
481 |
-0.279 |
19.2% |
7 |
132.98 |
43.90 |
-0.168 |
12.6% |
7 |
78.3 |
-0.155 |
5.9% |
7 |
3.07 |
-0.110 |
4.2% |
7 |
52.4% |
0.173 |
8.1% |
7 |
Median |
|
|
Mode |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mode |
|
|
STD |
1 |
410 |
1.000 |
68.9% |
3.5 |
53.47 |
37.61 |
1.000 |
74.9% |
3.5 |
31.7 |
1.000 |
38.1% |
3.5 |
1.22 |
1.000 |
38.1% |
3.5 |
22.7% |
1.000 |
46.8% |
3.5 |
STD |
|
|
25% |
25 |
372 |
-0.543 |
-12.4% |
4 |
96.80 |
25.76 |
-0.650 |
-11.4% |
4 |
65.4 |
-0.560 |
-3.8% |
4 |
2.42 |
-0.641 |
-7.7% |
4 |
35.7% |
-0.563 |
-26.3% |
4 |
|
|
|
75% |
27 |
669 |
0.180 |
37.4% |
9 |
144.95 |
55.94 |
0.152 |
48.7% |
9 |
86.3 |
0.099 |
21.3% |
9 |
3.45 |
0.201 |
24.4% |
9 |
62.7% |
0.626 |
29.3% |
9 |
|
|
***************************************************
SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation
TAE: total absolute
error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank
|
1st
Place
For every inch of snow observed… 0.91” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 78% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
2nd
Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.54” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 61% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
3rd Place
For every inch of snow observed …0.54” was forecast. Forecast accounted for 49% of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
Honorable Mention
For every inch of snow observed …0.79” was
forecast. Forecast accounted for 2%
of the observed snowfall/s variability. |
|
||||||||||||||||||
Average stations per forecaster: 26
Stations with observed snowfall: 22
Minimum: 39.5” (snowman)
Consensus Median: 133”
Maximum: 255.7“ (Raven)
Observed: 93.6”
Max single station: BGM (16.9”)
Shutout: PWM…CON…RIC…RDU
New Daily Records:
THU...25-FEB-10
BGM - 13.9" (4.2"; 1966)
ABE - 9.8" (3.2"; 1966)
ACY - 4.6" (1.6"; 1974)
EWR - 6.7" (2.4"; 2005)
BDR - 4.9" (3"; 2007)
ISP - 8.9" (2.9"; 1991)
JFK - 8.5" (6.4"; 1991)
ACY - 4.1" (2.8"; 1993)
EWR - 8.2" (4"; 1991)
Perfect Forecasts
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Perfect
Forecast' Stations |
bat avg |
|
1 |
emoran |
IAD DCA |
0.080 |
|
2 |
weatherT |
PVD ORF |
0.074 |
|
3 |
TQ |
BOS |
0.037 |
|
3 |
millersville_bauers |
ORF |
0.037 |
|
3 |
Roger Smith |
HYA |
0.037 |
|
6 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
Mitchel Volk |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
snowman |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
rcarroll |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
ilibov |
|
0.000 |
|
6 |
Raven |
|
0.000 |
Best Station Forecasts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Lowest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Lowest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
emoran |
ACY BWI IAD DCA SBY |
5 |
0.200 |
|
2 |
weatherT |
PVD PHL ORF |
3 |
0.111 |
|
2 |
TQ |
BOS BDL JFK |
3 |
0.111 |
|
2 |
millersville_bauers |
CAR ORH ORF |
3 |
0.111 |
|
5 |
snowman |
PHL SBY |
2 |
0.083 |
|
6 |
Mitchel Volk |
BDR ALB |
2 |
0.080 |
|
7 |
donsutherland1 |
BTV ABE |
2 |
0.077 |
|
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
ACY EWR |
2 |
0.077 |
|
7 |
Raven |
BGM ISP |
2 |
0.077 |
|
10 |
Roger Smith |
BGR HYA |
2 |
0.074 |
|
10 |
rcarroll |
MDT PHL |
2 |
0.074 |
|
12 |
ilibov |
MDT |
1 |
0.040 |
Best Station Forecast Busts (Batting Average - Percentage of Forecast Stations with Highest Absolute Error)
|
Rank |
Forecaster |
'Highest
Error' Stations |
TOT |
bat avg |
|
1 |
Raven |
CAR BGR PWM CON BOS HYA
ORH PVD BDR BDL |
10 |
0.385 |
|
2 |
snowman |
ISP JFK ACY EWR |
4 |
0.167 |
|
3 |
Mitchel Volk |
MDT PHL BWI |
3 |
0.120 |
|
4 |
millersville_bauers |
IAD DCA RIC |
3 |
0.111 |
|
4 |
rcarroll |
BGM ORF RDU |
3 |
0.111 |
|
6 |
ilibov |
ALB SBY |
2 |
0.080 |
|
7 |
Donald Rosenfeld |
BTV |
1 |
0.038 |
|
8 |
Roger Smith |
ABE |
1 |
0.037 |
|
9 |
donsutherland1 |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
weatherT |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
TQ |
|
0 |
0.000 |
|
9 |
emoran |
|
0 |
0.000 |
***********************************
***********************************
Consensus forecast best @ BDR…ABE…ACY
MAX forecast best @ BGM…ISP
MAX forecast less than observed @ ISP
MIN forecasts best @ BDL…ALB…PHL
MIN forecasts more than observed @
Fair association between SUMSQ and TAE Z-scores
*******************************
Verification:
Good data from CDUS41 F6 bulletins.
No climate or spotter reports for SBY. METARs suggest trace amount.
|
Rank |
Station |
Snow |
SN:H2O |
|
12 |
CAR |
1.10 |
|
|
17 |
BGR |
0.05 |
|
|
|
PWM |
-
|
|
|
|
CON |
-
|
|
|
15 |
BTV |
0.10 |
|
|
17 |
BOS |
0.05 |
|
|
17 |
HYA |
0.05 |
|
|
11 |
ORH |
1.30 |
|
|
15 |
PVD |
0.10 |
|
|
8 |
BDR |
4.90 |
|
|
13 |
BDL |
0.60 |
|
|
10 |
ALB |
2.30 |
|
|
1 |
BGM |
16.90 |
28.6 |
|
5 |
ISP |
9.20 |
|
|
4 |
JFK |
11.40 |
|
|
3 |
ABE |
12.90 |
14.0 |
|
9 |
MDT |
3.90 |
13.9 |
|
7 |
PHL |
5.60 |
13.0 |
|
6 |
ACY |
7.70 |
|
|
2 |
EWR |
14.90 |
|
|
14 |
BWI |
0.40 |
|
|
17 |
IAD |
0.05 |
|
|
17 |
DCA |
0.05 |
|
|
17 |
SBY |
0.05 |
|
|
|
RIC |
-
|
|
|
17 |
ORF |
0.05 |
|
|
|
RDU |
-
|
|
|
|
TOT |
93.65 |
17.4 |
*******************************
Five-day 5H anomaly height correlations